Smith & Nephew — Update 2 August 2016

Smith & Nephew — Update 2 August 2016

Smith & Nephew

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Smith & Nephew

Stronger H2 needed to deliver 2016 targets

Healthcare equipment & services

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2 August 2016

Price

1,240p

Market cap

£11bn

$1.31/£

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Share details

Code

SN

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

896m

Business description

Smith & Nephew is a leading global UK-based maker of medical devices. It is the world's number one in arthroscopy products; two in advanced wound management; three in trauma and extremities products; and number four in orthopaedic reconstruction products.

Bull

Strength in attractive market niches, such as arthroscopy, endoscopy and wound care

Recent acquisitions have been positive, alongside divestment of its Gynaecology business, from which shareholders will benefit via a share buyback.

The biggest European medical device maker, which may be an M&A target.

Bear

Growth continued to be tempered by FX and economic conditions in the emerging markets.

Consolidation of hospital buying patterns plays in favour of even bigger medical device companies.

Product pricing is likely to stay challenging, as healthcare funding remains under pressure.

Analysts

Dr Linda Pomeroy

+44 (0)20 3077 5738

Lala Gregorek

+44 (0)20 3681 2527

Smith & Nephew is a client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Smith & Nephew (S&N) reported slower revenue growth in H116 than management expectations, due principally to the trading problems experienced by the sector in the emerging markets, particularly China and the Middle East. The company indicates that this is improving, as China starts to return to growth (as seen in the Sports Medicine division in Q2), but we expect the weakness to continue through H2. Its 6% premium on 2016e P/E to the average of its global orthopaedic peers is supported by its leading position in innovative areas such as robotics, although to maintain this it needs to continue to innovate and improve its growth profile.

H116 driven by Sports Medicine and knee implants

S&N reported underlying sales growth of 3% in H1 (2% reported with a -2% FX effect and a 1% effect from acquisitions). The key divisions and geographic area drivers were Sports Medicine joint repair (+10%), knee implants (+7%) and the US (+6%). Results were particularly affected by difficult economic conditions in the emerging markets (a reported 4% underlying decline in sales), which had a particular impact on S&N’s Trauma division (-6% in Q2) and Advanced Wound Management (-7% in Q2). H2 will need to deliver stronger growth, which we expect to come from the Reconstruction and Sports Medicine divisions. In the emerging markets, there are indications of improvements (Sports Medicine returned to growth in China in Q2), although we expect continued weakness in H2.

Robotics – driver of the future

S&N is one of two companies (Stryker is the other) with approval for its robotics system from the FDA. S&N’s NAVIO surgical robot was acquired (Blue Belt Technologies, for $275m) in 2015 and recently performed its first full knee replacement surgery in the US. The technology potentially offers a precise, reproducible procedure with the ability to record it in detail. We believe that in a market such as the US, which is driven by insurance, this will become an increasingly attractive offering for providers and could therefore be a significant revenue driver for S&N.

Valuation: Trading at a reduced premium

S&N trades at 19.1x 2016e P/E, a 6% premium to the average of US peers Stryker and Zimmer at 20x and 16x, respectively. This has contracted from the premium levels of last year (c 13%) due, in our opinion, to reduced takeover speculation and its competitors (principally Stryker) improving their portfolio balance and leading the robotics focus (alongside S&N).

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
($m)

PBT
($m)

EPSA*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

4,617

714

83.2

29.6

19.5

1.8

12/15

4,634

1,040

85.1

30.8

19.1

1.9

12/16e

4,766

1,039

85.2

31.0

19.1

1.9

12/17e

4,989

1,061

98.0

34.1

16.6

2.1

Source: Bloomberg and Smith & Nephew accounts. Note:*Before amortisation of intangibles.

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