Long-term, bottom-up, diversified and valuation focused
The portfolio managers are focused on long-term returns, with investment decisions driven by a selective, bottom-up approach to stock selection. Their experience is that by staying close to companies, they can invest with conviction and better add value than would be the case by relying on top-down macroeconomic forecasting. The variables involved in macroeconomic forecasting are numerous and often difficult to predict, whereas Henderson and Foll argue that a careful and selective stock-driven approach provides opportunities to generate added value almost regardless of what is happening in the wider economy. As a result, there is no common theme to stock selection, which is driven by the search for companies that are ‘good at what they do’ with ‘forward looking, dynamic management teams’, but not at any price. Although different metrics are used across sectors, the managers are very conscious of valuation, aiming to invest when companies appear to be undervalued, and recycle capital into more attractive opportunities when valuations have increased materially, or where the investment case has fundamentally changed. The revenue generated by the IPS business provides the opportunity to select from a wide pool of potential investments which, unlike many trusts in the equity income sector, includes those with lower or zero dividend-paying shares. This could be selected early-stage businesses with attractive growth potential and the potential to deliver long-term capital and income growth, or those that are larger and more established and in a process of recovery and dividend restoration.
Given the focus on stocks rather than index weightings, diversification of the portfolio holdings, by business activity, market capitalisation and risk profile, is deliberately targeted, to enhance the consistency of performance and protect capital over the long term. While the portfolio remains very focused on UK equities, overseas investment provides additional stock diversification opportunities, typically utilised where there is no compelling UK equivalent.
2022 portfolio performance reflected market trends
As we have noted above, UK equity market performance in 2022 was marked by a unusually wide disparity in returns across sectors and by market capitalisation. An index of the top 100 UK stocks rose by 4.7% versus a c 17% decline for mid-market stocks and a c 30% decline for the smallest. Even within the top 100 index, the top 20 stocks by market capitalisation increased by an average c 16% versus an average c 17% decline for the other 80.
For LWDB, with its diversified approach to stocks across all market capitalisation ranges, balancing the immediate requirement for income with the opportunities to grow capital and income for the longer term, this was challenging, in contrast to its historical consistent performance.
The five largest contributors to portfolio performance were UK top 100 constituents and included those exposed to rising commodity prices (natural resources companies such as BP, Glencore and Rio Tinto), increased defence spending, significantly driven by the war in Ukraine (BAE Systems) or rising interest rates (Standard Chartered).
Exhibit 11: Top five contributors to 2022 performance
Stock |
Share price total return (%) |
Contribution (£m) |
BP |
43.7 |
8.2 |
BAE Systems |
54.3 |
5.4 |
Glencore |
58.7 |
3.9 |
Rio Tinto |
18.5 |
3.4 |
Standard Chartered |
38.3 |
3.3 |
Source: The Law Debenture Corporation, Edison Investment Research
The main detractors to portfolio performance were a combination of early-stage growth companies (Accsys Technologies, Ceres Power and, indirectly, IP Group), Marks & Spencer, due to broad concerns over consumer spending, and ‘developer to rent’, Watkin Jones, which was affected by cost pressures and the impact of increased capital costs on purchasers. In most cases, the market capitalisation trend was a significant factor, reinforced by stock-specific performance issues.
Exhibit 12: Top five detractors from 2022 performance
Stock |
Share price total return (%) |
Contribution (£m) |
Accsys Technologies |
(68.0) |
(10.7) |
Ceres Power |
(67.7) |
(8.8) |
Marks & Spencer |
(47.8) |
(6.8) |
IP Group |
(54.9) |
(6.2) |
Watkins Jones |
(61.7) |
(6.0) |
Source: The Law Debenture Corporation, Edison Investment Research
To a great extent, in 2020, the smaller the stock the weaker the performance was. Despite being some of the strongest contributors to performance in recent years, this was very much the case for LWDB’s selected early-stage companies. In a portfolio context they bring the potential for above average long-term capital and income growth opportunities, while providing diversification away from the value/income positions that make up most of the portfolio. However, they come with higher risks. In most cases, profits are yet to emerge, increasing the sensitivity to rising capital costs. When market sentiment is poor, any disappointments with company performance are compounded by a general retreat to safety, as was the case in 2022.
Accsys Technologies is a producer of sustainable building products, for which revenues continue to grow strongly, but capacity additions have taken longer than expected, at an increased cost. Ceres Power and other alternative energy investments (AFC Energy and ITM Power) have made a positive contribution to performance over five years, supported by favourable structural trends, despite notable weakness in 2022. The investment managers had begun incrementally reducing positions on valuation grounds and in hindsight, would doubtless have done so more aggressively. In part, the 2022 performance also reflected various performance issues, which in turn may be seen as growing pains. The managers view recent management changes at all three of these companies positively and with valuations much reduced, have more recently been adding to positions in Ceres and AFC Energy.
Building on the medium-term success of its alternative energy investments, the managers made an investment in BritishVolt, an unlisted company with plans to manufacture batteries for EV cars. The expected follow-on funding failed to materialise in challenging market conditions and the company eventually went into administration, costing LWDB c £5m (all recognised in 2022). The managers note that ‘this mistake’ illustrates the sector challenge of raising capital to fund the investment that will be required for EV car manufacturing to flourish in the UK.
The only remaining unquoted investment of note is Oxford Science Innovation, which assists the development of early-stage businesses emerging from Oxford University. It has been a successful investment, with the NAV up over 60% since it was made.
Focused on the UK where valuations are favourable
The LWDB investment portfolio continues to be very much focused on UK-listed investments. UK valuations are low by historical standards and the market has lagged global stock markets, despite around half of earnings from the top 100 companies derived from outside the UK. Portfolio holdings increased by c £40m during the year, while reducing exposure to US-listed stocks by c £16m. This was achieved by deploying the c £41m proceeds of accretive share issuance while simultaneously reducing gearing, providing the flexibility for further net investment as opportunities arise.
Exhibit 13: Portfolio geographic exposure at 31 December 2022
|
Portfolio weight (%) |
Change (PP) |
Allocation guideline (%) |
|
31 December 2022 |
31 December 2021 |
UK |
83.2 |
82.6 |
0.6 |
55-100 |
North America |
5.1 |
5.4 |
-0.3 |
0-20 |
Europe |
10.6 |
10.0 |
0.6 |
0-20 |
Japan |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0-10 |
Other Asia-Pacific |
|
0.7 |
-0.7 |
0-10 |
Other* |
|
0.2 |
-0.2 |
0-10 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
Source: The Law Debenture Corporation, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Collective investment funds.
The UK equity market has been hugely out of favour with global investors for a number of years, reflecting recurrent concerns over domestic politics and Brexit, as well as market composition, such as the rise of the US mega-cap technology sector. More recently, as interest rates have increased around the world, investors have paid more attention to the high valuations of many ‘growth’ companies. We also note that the relative weakness of sterling has a positive translation impact on overseas earnings and that favourable valuations within the UK market have attracted increasing M&A activity. This has recently been the case among mid-market companies
Exhibit 14: Demand for UK equity funds remains low
|
Exhibit 15: UK equity market underperformance
|
|
|
Source: Morningstar. Note: Globally domiciled UK equity strategies.
|
|
Exhibit 14: Demand for UK equity funds remains low
|
|
Source: Morningstar. Note: Globally domiciled UK equity strategies.
|
Exhibit 15: UK equity market underperformance
|
|
|
While the demand for UK equity funds remains low, the performance gap between UK and global equities has narrowed somewhat over the past year. Janus Henderson research indicates that UK equities are trading at their largest discount to global equities in more than 25 years. It notes that this is not simply at the level of market indices, but is apparent across most sectors. Although reflecting a shorter time period, it is supported by the data in Exhibit 16.
Exhibit 16: UK valuation stands out
Forward price earnings ratios (x) |
Last |
High |
Low |
10-year avg |
Last as % 10-year ave. |
UK |
11.1 |
15.6 |
9.4 |
13.5 |
82% |
US |
18.6 |
23.4 |
14.1 |
17.7 |
105% |
Europe |
12.9 |
17.8 |
11.0 |
14.4 |
90% |
Japan |
12.9 |
18.5 |
11.1 |
14.3 |
90% |
Asia ex Japan |
12.7 |
18.0 |
11.1 |
13.1 |
97% |
World |
15.1 |
19.9 |
12.5 |
15.4 |
98% |
Diversification balances risk
Diversity is a key element of the investment strategy and there were 150 stocks in the LWDB portfolio at 31 December 2022 compared to 149 a year earlier and the board has sanctioned an increase in the upper limit to 175. This will facilitate capital recycling, particularly into developing companies where the managers often make a small initial investment, increasing it when those companies require additional capital for suitably attractive new projects.
At the core of the portfolio, the top 10 holdings are all UK top 100 stocks and six of these are within the current top 20. Concentration in the top 10 holdings increased to 22.8% vs 18.6%, primarily driven by strong valuation gains, particularly in the oil and gas and resources sectors (see Exhibit 18), but remains relatively low. The balance of the portfolio represented an average stock weighting of c 0.6%. In the table we have compared the 2022 top 10 stock weightings with their weights in 2021, such that the aggregate does not correspond to the actual 2022 total top 10 weighting of 18.6%.
Exhibit 17: Top 10 holdings (at 31 December 2022)
|
|
|
Portfolio weight (%) |
Change |
Company |
Country |
Sector |
31 December 2022 |
31 December 2021 |
(pp) |
Shell |
UK |
Oil & gas producers |
3.3 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
BP |
UK |
Oil & gas producers |
3.0 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
HSBC |
UK |
Banks |
2.5 |
2.0 |
0.5 |
RioTinto |
UK |
Mining |
2.4 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
GlaxoSmithKline |
UK |
Pharmaceuticals |
2.2 |
2.7 |
(0.5) |
Barclays |
UK |
Banks |
2.2 |
2.0 |
0.2 |
Flutter Entertainment |
UK |
Travel & leisure |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
NatWest |
UK |
Banks |
1.9 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
Anglo American |
UK |
Mining |
1.6 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
Direct Line Insurance |
UK |
Non-life insurance |
1.6 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
Total top 10 holdings* |
|
|
22.8 |
18.6 |
4.2 |
Source: The Law Debenture Corporation, Edison Investment Research
Changes in sector weights during the period are not particularly material and predominantly relate to performance, net investment flows and the stock selection activity referred to above, rather than being a ‘target’ in themselves. Compared with the broad UK equity market, LWDB has a larger exposure to industrials (by c 10%), matched by a lower exposure to consume sectors.
Exhibit 18: Portfolio sector exposure (at 31 December 2022)
|
Portfolio weight (%) |
Change |
|
31 December 2022 |
31 December 2021 |
(pp) |
Financials |
27.4 |
27.5 |
(0.1) |
Industrials |
21.7 |
20.7 |
1.0 |
Oil & gas |
10.9 |
10.1 |
0.8 |
Consumer services |
9.0 |
8.8 |
0.2 |
Basic materials |
8.7 |
9.7 |
(1.0) |
Health care |
8.1 |
7.2 |
0.9 |
Consumer goods |
7.7 |
7.4 |
0.3 |
Utilities |
3.2 |
4.4 |
(1.2) |
Telecommunications |
2.0 |
2.6 |
(0.6) |
Technology |
1.3 |
1.6 |
(0.3) |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
Source: The Law Debenture Corporation, Edison Investment Research