HgT — Steady earnings growth, stable market multiples

HgT (LSE: HGT)

Last close As at 20/11/2024

GBP5.30

−5.00 (−0.93%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,426m

More on this equity

Research: Investment Companies

HgT — Steady earnings growth, stable market multiples

HgT reported sustained healthy earnings momentum across its major holdings (driven primarily by upselling and cross-selling opportunities), contributing 5pp to its NAV performance in Q324. Its top 20 holdings (which make up 76% of its portfolio value) posted last 12-month sales growth of 20% (of which 12% was organic) and 24% EBITDA growth to end-September 2024, achieved at a 34% average EBITDA margin. The positive earnings impact on NAV was offset by adverse currency movements (sterling strengthening) of 3pp, the main contributor to the 0.9% NAV total return (TR) decline in Q324. The negative fx changes partly reversed post quarter-end. Continued positive momentum across HgT’s portfolio, coupled with stable valuation multiples since the start of the year, brought HgT’s year-to-date NAV TR to 5.5%. This was accompanied by an average 16% uplift to previous carrying value for full and partial realisations completed to date. HgT’s five- and 10-year NAV TR remains strong at 17.6% and 18.4% pa, respectively.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Head of Content, Investment Trusts

Investment Companies

HgT

Steady earnings growth, stable market multiples

Investment trusts/TMT
Private equity funds

07 November 2024

Price

516.0p

Market cap

£2,362m

NAV*

£2,386m

NAV per share*

521.3p

Discount to NAV

1.0%

*At end-September 2024.

Yield

1.3%

Shares in issue

457.7m

Code/ISIN

HGT/GB00BJ0LT190

Primary exchange

LSE

AIC sector

Private equity

52-week high/low

548.0p

381.5p

524.0p

500.5p

Gearing

Net gearing at end-Q324

0.0%

Fund objective

HgT’s investment objective is to provide shareholders with consistent long-term returns in excess of the UK All-Share Index by investing predominantly in unquoted companies where value can be created through strategic and operational change.

Bull points

Focus on resilient B2B software and services companies with broad client bases.

Portfolio companies continue to deliver both solid top- and bottom-line performance.

Experienced investment team with a strong, long-term track record.

Bear points

Investor rotation away from tech could resume in the event of increasing risk aversion.

The impact of a worsening macroeconomic environment on SMEs may result in reduced net client additions across HgT’s portfolio.

High net leverage of portfolio companies but supported by high share of recurring revenues, strong earnings growth and high cash generation.

Analysts

Milosz Papst

+44 (0) 20 3077 5720

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0) 20 3077 5720

HgT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

HgT reported sustained healthy earnings momentum across its major holdings (driven primarily by upselling and cross-selling opportunities), contributing 5pp to its NAV performance in Q324. Its top 20 holdings (which make up 76% of its portfolio value) posted last 12-month sales growth of 20% (of which 12% was organic) and 24% EBITDA growth to end-September 2024, achieved at a 34% average EBITDA margin. The positive earnings impact on NAV was offset by adverse currency movements (sterling strengthening) of 3pp, the main contributor to the 0.9% NAV total return (TR) decline in Q324. The negative fx changes partly reversed post quarter-end. Continued positive momentum across HgT’s portfolio, coupled with stable valuation multiples since the start of the year, brought HgT’s year-to-date NAV TR to 5.5%. This was accompanied by an average 16% uplift to previous carrying value for full and partial realisations completed to date. HgT’s five- and 10-year NAV TR remains strong at 17.6% and 18.4% pa, respectively.

While the quarter was quiet in terms of exits, we note that HgT received £349m in proceeds from exits and refinancings in total in the first nine months of 2024 (c 15% of NAV). HgT also highlighted in its H124 release that a further £75m of realisations was already signed and expected to close in the second half of this year. This includes the F24 exit completed in October 2024, returning gross proceeds of £14.2m to HgT. The trust’s balance sheet remains healthy with £420m in available liquid resources (18% of NAV), including £312m of the undrawn credit facility (the total facility size is £375m) and £108m in cash and equivalents. This represents a safe 58% coverage ratio of its £720m outstanding commitments, which HgT expects to be drawn over the next three to four years.

HgT noted the rebound in deal activity across the market in 2024, supported by stable valuations and earnings resilience. It invested £213m in Q324 (£523m in the first nine months of 2024), of which £66m (£109m) were co-investments (which are exempt from fees). As a result, the share of co-investments in HgT’s portfolio increased to 10% (vs 5% at end-2023), well on track to reach the trust’s medium-term target of 10–15%.

HgT’s new investments in Q324 include Auditboard (a connected risk platform for audit, risk, compliance and ESG management), Ncontracts (a provider of integrated compliance, risk, and vendor management solutions to the financial services industry), Focus Group (a provider of essential business technology to SMEs, including IT, telecom and connectivity services), as well as the contractor management, risk and compliance software platform created as a result of the merger between CTAIMA and E-coordina. HgT also agreed to invest £38m in Ivalua, a provider of global spend management cloud solutions. Finally, HgT reiterated the strong NAV-accretive M&A activity across its existing portfolio, running at twice the previously indicated run-rate of 100 acquisitions per year.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by HgT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by HgT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by HgT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by HgT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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