Stratec Biomedical — Update 15 June 2016

Stratec Biomedical — Update 15 June 2016

Stratec Biomedical

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Stratec Biomedical

Excellent strategic fit with integrated consumables

Sony DADC BioSciences acquisition

Healthcare equipment & services

15 June 2016

Price

€49.85

Market cap

€588m

Net cash (€m) at 31 December 2015

48.3

Shares in issue

11.8m

Free float

58%

Code

SBS

Primary exchange

Xetra

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.8)

(1.3)

7.5

Rel (local)

2.6

3.6

26.4

52-week high/low

€62.31

€42.0

Business description

Stratec Biomedical designs and manufactures OEM diagnostic systems. A US subsidiary designs advanced optics and there is a UK software company and Berlin DNA business, Diatron (blood analysers) was acquired in March and the DADC consumables acquisition may complete by mid Q3.

Next events

H2 results

21 July 2016

DADC completion

Mid Q316

Q3 results

27 October 2016

Analyst

John Savin PhD

+44 (0)20 3077 5735

Stratec Biomedical is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Stratec, a designer and builder of automated OEM diagnostic systems, has announced its intention to acquire an Austrian business that designs and manufactures complex precision consumables for high-end biomedical and diagnostic systems. This is an excellent strategic fit as it will allow Stratec to integrate high-value consumables into system designs and accumulate recurring revenues: Stratec expects a 20% CAGR to 2020 on DADC 2015 sales of €17m. Stratec is experiencing reduced Chinese orders and the guided 5% EBIT of DADC may lower the 2017 EBIT margin to 17%.

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBIT
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

144.9

24.1

2.16

0.70

23.1

1.4

12/15

146.9

26.9

2.53

0.75

19.7

1.5

12/16e

183.5

30.5

2.49

0.80

20.0

1.6

12/17e

220.1

36.1

2.86

0.85

17.4

1.7

Note: EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. 2015 revenues and EBIT as disclosed.

Consumables fit into Stratec’s system solutions

Consumables are often taken for granted and seen as low value. In reality, for the advanced new systems now in use, they are an integral part of the test and crucial to accuracy. For example, if liquid biopsy for cancer becomes mainstream, users will need millions of high-precision consumables costing €30-100 each. As yet DADC BioSciences, a Sony subsidiary, is waiting for developed systems, like the Stratec-produced Simoa from Quanterix, to build sales and use rates. Once this happens, Stratec should see major benefits but timing is uncertain. DADC sales are now annualised at €17m with about 5% EBIT margin according to Stratec. This makes the €30m cash acquisition price 1.8x sales and about 25x EBIT (exact figures are not disclosed). This appears a good price for an acquisition with major opportunities and excellent strategic fit. Short term it will limit the EBIT margin.

FY15 and Q1 results

2015 unit sales fell by 11.9% but a shift to complex systems increased unit value by 6%. Subsidiary sales rose about 70% (after consolidation) yielding €9.6m largely offsetting this. Service part sales rose 5% to €35.6m, boosting EBIT margin to 18.3% (17% in 2014 excluding one-off charges). Stratec also reported recognised development revenues of €16.4m up from €14.6m so total revenues rose 1.4%. Management has guided on lower 2016 core business expectations due to China and Q1 saw sales of €31.2m, down 10% on Q114. We expect sales to develop as the year progresses and forecast €152m in pre-acquisition, core revenue.

Valuation: Acquisition brings medium-term value

Stratec’s management will issue new guidance either with Q2 results in late July or after the DADC acquisition completes. The initial revised Edison forecast indicates consolidated 2016 revenues of €183.5m rising with growth and full consolidation to €220m in 2017. The overall 2017 EBIT margin may be around 16.5% if the DADC margin improves to about 10%. On this forecast, the shares are trading on a prospective 2017 normalised P/E of 17.4x. A bridge loan of €50m is in forecasts.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€'000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

Revenue

144,860

146,886

183,449

220,140

Cost of Sales

(99,924)

(91,854)

(113,326)

(132,551)

Gross Profit

44,936

55,032

70,124

87,589

EBITDA

31,130

36,059

38,005

43,564

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

29,656

34,559

36,505

42,064

Intangible Amortisation

(6,036)

(6,000)

(6,000)

(6,000)

Exceptionals

(624)

0

0

0

Other

1,056

(1,684)

0

0

EBIT

24,052

26,875

30,505

36,064

EBIT %

16.6%

18.3%

16.6%

16.4%

Net Interest

2

298

(883)

(882)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

29,658

34,857

35,622

41,182

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

24,054

27,173

29,622

35,182

Tax

(4,287)

(5,089)

(6,221)

(7,388)

Profit After Tax (norm)

25,371

29,768

29,401

33,795

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

19,767

22,084

23,401

27,794

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

11.8

11.8

11.8

11.8

EPS - normalised (c)

215.6

252.9

248.9

286.1

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

167.9

187.6

198.1

235.3

Dividend per share (c)

70.00

75.00

80.00

85.00

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

31%

37%

38%

40%

EBITDA Margin (%)

21%

25%

21%

20%

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

20%

24%

20%

19%

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

47,739

50,792

149,230

150,668

Intangible Assets

30,262

30,992

115,792

113,292

Tangible Assets

15,954

19,595

33,233

37,171

Investments

1,523

205

205

205

Current Assets

90,009

108,147

67,804

81,134

Stocks

18,066

16,019

19,900

21,150

Debtors

24,430

24,045

28,000

30,000

Cash

46,636

56,415

10,223

21,303

Other (inc ongoing services)

877

11,668

9,681

8,681

Current Liabilities

(15,586)

(18,667)

(16,296)

(16,796)

Creditors

(13,137)

(14,851)

(12,480)

(12,980)

Short term borrowings

(2,449)

(3,816)

(3,816)

(3,816)

Long Term Liabilities

(10,110)

(9,992)

(55,905)

(51,818)

Long term borrowings

(4,483)

(4,328)

(50,241)

(46,154)

Other long term liabilities (tax)

(5,627)

(5,664)

(5,664)

(5,664)

Net Assets

112,052

130,280

144,833

163,188

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

38,789

32,275

29,902

41,931

Net Interest

(36)

140

(1,000)

(999)

Tax

999

(6,382)

(6,221)

(7,388)

Capex

(1,474)

(5,438)

(5,438)

(5,438)

Intangible invetsment

(5,215)

(3,426)

(3,500)

(3,500)

Acquisitions/disposals

176

157

(97,000)

0

Financing

(1,262)

(416)

46,513

(3,487)

Dividends

(7,056)

(8,248)

(9,448)

(10,039)

Net Cash Flow

24,921

8,662

(46,192)

11,080

Opening net debt/(cash)

(12,196)

(39,704)

(48,271)

43,834

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

2,587

(95)

(45,913)

4,087

Closing net debt/(cash)

(39,704)

(48,271)

43,834

28,667

Source: Stratec Biomedical reports, Edison Investment Research forecasts. Note: Forecasts are preliminary and will be revised following new management guidance and additional financial data in Q316. New acquisitions are consolidated from the known or expected completion dates in 2016. A bridging loan of €50m, as indicated by Stratec management, has been included in 2016 forecasts to part fund the acquisitions. Stratec will set a financing strategy once the DADC acquisition has completed.

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United Kingdom

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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