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YouGov — Strategy reaping rewards

YouGov (AIM: YOU)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

902.00

▲ −34.00 (−3.63%)

Market capitalisation

990m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

YouGov — Strategy reaping rewards

YouGov’s strategy to focus on its scalable products and services is paying back handsomely in revenue growth and margin improvement. Margin is being further boosted by the reorientation of custom business to greater use of data already held in the Cube, the group’s multi-dimensional database. We have edged our FY18 and FY19 earnings forecasts up 4-7% to reflect the strong H1. The £21m of net cash (end January) is being used to fund continuing investment in panel, applications and new markets. It also supports a progressive dividend and allows for bolt-on acquisitions. The premium rating reflects the growth record and positive outlook.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

TMT

YouGov

Strategy reaping rewards

Interim results

Media

28 March 2018

Price

381p

Market cap

£402m

£/$1.39

Net cash (£m) as at 31 January 2018

21.3

Shares in issue

105.5m

Free float

91.4%

Code

YOU

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

11.2

20.4

43.8

Rel (local)

15.4

30.4

47.7

52-week high/low

381.0p

246.0p

Business description

YouGov is an international market research and data and analytics group offering a data-led suite of products and services including YouGov BrandIndex, YouGov Profiles, YouGov Omnibus and custom research.

Next events

Trading update

Early August 2018

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

YouGov is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

YouGov’s strategy to focus on its scalable products and services is paying back handsomely in revenue growth and margin improvement. Margin is being further boosted by the reorientation of custom business to greater use of data already held in the Cube, the group’s multi-dimensional database. We have edged our FY18 and FY19 earnings forecasts up 4-7% to reflect the strong H1. The £21m of net cash (end January) is being used to fund continuing investment in panel, applications and new markets. It also supports a progressive dividend and allows for bolt-on acquisitions. The premium rating reflects the growth record and positive outlook.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

EV/EBITDA (x)

07/16

88.2

13.3

8.5

1.4

44.7

0.4

32.5

07/17

107.0

16.4

10.5

2.0

36.3

0.5

24.1

07/18e

116.5

19.4

13.1

2.3

29.0

0.6

20.0

07/19e

126.0

21.8

14.1

2.5

27.0

0.7

17.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

UK and US strongest markets

Despite already being large and relatively long-established, the US and UK operations continue to grow very fast, with H118 revenues up 25% y-o-y (at constant currency, CC) and 15% respectively. Between them, they accounted for 65% of H118 revenues. Adjusted operating margins in these regions also made substantial gains, with the US up from 25.8% to 33.9% and the UK from 24.6% to 40.4%, reflecting the prevalence particularly of BrandIndex/Profiles data products and Omnibus data service in the mix. Results from other markets were more varied, with Germany and the Middle East down by 18% and 16% (CC) respectively as they restructured, with the latter improving its operating margin as it moves away from bespoke custom projects. New operations are being launched in Italy and Spain and the Asia-Pacific region has moved into profit. A small bolt-on acquisition in Australia in December 2017 should help accelerate regional growth.

Panel data compliant and at the heart

YouGov’s products and services are informed by the data supplied by its panellists (and stored in its connected data library, the Cube), rather than harvested from the public unknowingly. To take the offering through to the next stage in the advertising ecosystem, as the group intends with its digital advertising platform, YouGov Direct, will require an additional level of consent. The partnership approach that the group has with its panellists may prove of considerable commercial value as public sensitivity towards privacy issues increases, and as the GDPR approaches.

Valuation: Premium rating

YouGov’s rating remains at the top of the ranking of global peers, with much of the traditional market research sector still struggling with legacy infrastructure. YouGov continues to refine and productise its offerings, driving a higher earnings CAGR than the sector and funding a progressive dividend stream. The group’s clear and consistent strategy is translating into profits and, at least as importantly, into cash.

Revenue and margin growth

The H118 figures were in the trajectory that we had anticipated, but better, despite a currency headwind that knocked £0.5m off the adjusted operating profit level. It is clear from Exhibit 1 below that the driving force for the revenues was the connected data-driven products and services, in line with the group strategy.

Data products. BrandIndex has expanded its reach to 32 markets globally and continues to build traction in its more established markets. UK data products revenues were up by 43%, reflecting a good sales performance in H217, with momentum carrying through to the reported period. US revenues were up 20% (CC) and there were good reported growth figures in other territories, off lower bases. BrandIndex and Profiles are increasingly being sold together as a ‘Plan & Track’ solution for advertisers, now functional in 13 markets, with eight further markets planned to come on stream in H218/H119.

Exhibit 1: H118 results summary

Revenue H118 (£m)

Revenue H117
(£m)

Revenue growth
(%)

Operating profit H118 (£m)

Operating profit H117
(£m)

Operating margin H118

(%)

Operating margin H117
(%)

BrandIndex

11.4

9.2

24% (27% CC)

Profiles

2.9

1.4

100% (104% CC)

Other data products

0.1

0.4

Total data products

14.4

11.0

31% (34% CC)

4.8

2.8

33%

25%

Omnibus

12.7

10.2

24% (24% CC)

Other data services

0.7

0.8

Total data services

13.4

11.0

22% (23% CC)

3.5

2.5

41%

22%

Total data products & services

27.8

22.0

27% (29% CC)

8.3

5.3

30%

24%

Custom research^

29.1

29.6

-2% (+1% CC)

6.9

4.3

24%

12%

Eliminations/central costs^

(0.6)

(0.2)

(6.4)

(3.9)

Group

56.3

51.4

10% (12% CC)

8.8

5.7

16%

11%

Source: YouGov. Note: CC = constant currency; ^historics restated for changes to reporting.

Data services. This is dominated by Omnibus. In its most mature market, the UK, revenue growth was 10%, still a very respectable rate of progress. The US grew revenues 85% (CC), with other smaller markets showing impressive progress but off a smaller base. A self-service tool has been added to the market offering to cater for clients with that requirement, but with the results still being delivered through YouGov’s proprietary data analytics and visualisation tool, Crunch.

Custom research. This is the area of the group that has been going through the greatest degree of change, as it shifts away from carrying out one-off, bespoke projects and building up the scalable and repeatable parts of the offering. The increased use of existing Cube data is also driving operating margins, as is the greater propensity to cross-sell and upsell to other group offerings. The cessation of low margin but reasonably substantial business in Germany and the Middle East affected revenues in both those reporting regions, with operating margins still well below where they should be in Germany at 3.6% but starting to recover in the Middle East, building from 15.7% to 22.3%. Restructuring costs of £230k and £204k were taken on Germany and Middle East respectively, the bulk of the £661k separately reported items in the period.

There has been a change to the reporting of the Custom Research segment. Previously the chief scientist (US-based Doug Rivers) and the operational support for the Crunch data analytics and visualisation tool were allocated to segmental overhead at a combined cost of £790k. Since Crunch is increasingly being used to deliver other group products such as Profiles, the associated overhead has now been (more reasonably) categorised as central costs and the comparative figures restated.

Central costs are also bearing an increased long-term incentive (LTIP) plan charge of £1.3m with respect to the five-year LTIP 2014 (see our last Outlook note), which looks increasingly likely to pay out in full in November 2019. Share-based payments are stripped out of our definition of normalised earnings.

Forecasts edged ahead despite currency

The strength of the H118 performance implied an inherent sharp slowdown in H218 if our previous forecasts were maintained. While there is now a definite currency headwind (which knocked £0.5m off operating profits to £8.8m in H118), we have nevertheless put in small increases to our full year estimate and our projections into FY19.

Exhibit 2: Revised summary estimates

EPS (p)

PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2018e

12.4

13.1

+6

18.3

19.4

+6

17.7

18.7

+6

2019e

13.2

14.1

+7

20.9

21.8

+4

20.2

21.1

+4

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Still generating generous cash

Investment in the first half amounted to £3.7m, of which £1.7m was spent on the continuing development of the technology platform. In total, £1.4m was spent on driving panel growth, up 8% on January 2017 to just over six million worldwide, including in India, Italy, Spain, Taiwan and Australia as a precursor to rolling out BrandIndex and Profiles.

Currency movements also knocked £0.8m off period end net cash to leave it at £21.3m. Our forecast for the end of the financial year 2018 is for a net cash balance of just over £27m, compared with £23.2m at end FY17.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£'000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 July

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

88,202

107,048

116,500

126,000

Cost of Sales

(19,476)

(21,339)

(42,056)

(44,730)

Gross Profit

68,726

85,709

74,443

81,270

EBITDA

 

 

11,736

15,702

18,700

21,075

Operating Profit (before amort. and except).

 

 

10,921

14,528

17,500

19,850

Intangible Amortisation

(5,478)

(6,483)

(7,150)

(7,150)

Share based payments

(1,138)

(1,508)

(1,802)

(1,802)

Exceptionals

(1,108)

(488)

0

0

Other

(4)

116

0

0

Operating Profit

3,193

6,165

8,548

10,898

Net Interest

1,199

254

121

142

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

13,254

16,406

19,423

21,793

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

4,392

6,419

8,669

11,039

Tax

(2,111)

(4,915)

(4,953)

(6,211)

Profit After Tax (norm)

11,139

13,117

14,470

15,582

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,415

4,651

5,316

6,630

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

103.9

105.5

105.5

105.5

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

 

8.5

10.5

13.1

14.1

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

3.3

4.4

5.0

6.3

Dividend per share (p)

1.4

2.0

2.3

2.5

Gross Margin (%)

77.9

80.1

63.9

64.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

13.3

14.7

16.1

16.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except & share-based payments) (%)

11.1

12.2

13.5

14.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

62,366

64,637

64,637

64,637

Intangible Assets

53,140

54,960

54,960

54,960

Tangible Assets

8,984

9,332

9,332

9,332

Investments

242

345

345

345

Current Assets

 

 

45,339

54,918

61,277

71,492

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

28,643

30,699

32,741

35,411

Cash

15,553

23,481

27,015

34,560

Current Liabilities

 

 

(27,823)

(34,177)

(35,106)

(37,969)

Creditors

(27,823)

(33,915)

(35,106)

(37,969)

Short term borrowings

0

(262)

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(5,793)

(4,905)

(4,905)

(4,905)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(5,793)

(4,905)

(4,905)

(4,905)

Net Assets

 

 

74,089

80,473

85,903

93,255

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

14,139

18,914

17,806

22,138

Net Interest

11

4

121

142

Tax

(2,365)

(2,487)

(4,924)

(5,267)

Capex

(6,076)

(7,661)

(7,000)

(7,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

(171)

0

0

0

Financing

16

175

0

0

Dividends

(1,028)

(1,470)

(2,205)

(2,469)

Net Cash Flow

4,526

7,475

3,798

7,544

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,017)

(15,553)

(23,219)

(27,015)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

1,010

191

(2)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(15,553)

(23,219)

(27,015)

(34,559)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by YouGov and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by YouGov and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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The turnaround in business levels in life insurance after the weak first half improves visibility, although the overall environment remains challenging. Strong 2017 profits mean the price to NAV ratio is barely changed at an undemanding 1.03x despite some gain in the share price. A highly tenable 4.2% dividend yield offers further attraction.

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