XP Power — Strong finish to the year

XP Power (LSE: XPP)

Last close As at 20/11/2024

GBP13.06

−48.00 (−3.55%)

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Research: TMT

XP Power — Strong finish to the year

XP reported a strong finish to 2020, with Q4 revenues up 24% y-o-y and 4% ahead of our forecast, driving FY20 profitability ahead of expectations. Order intake has normalised to pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting continued strong demand from the semiconductor sector. We have revised our estimates to reflect strong Q420 performance and the weaker dollar, driving a 3.0% increase in FY20 EPS and a 2.3% cut to our FY21 EPS.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

XP Power

Strong finish to the year

FY20 trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

12 January 2021

Price

5,100p

Market cap

£991m

$1.35:£1

Net debt (£m) at end FY20

18.0

Shares in issue

19.4m

Free float

90%

Code

XPP

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

18.1

8.5

58.9

Rel (local)

13.2

(4.5)

74.2

52-week high/low

5,100p

2,130p

Business description

XP Power is a developer and designer of power control solutions with production facilities in China, Vietnam and the US, and design, service and sales teams across Europe, the US and Asia.

Next events

FY20 results

2 March

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

XP Power is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

XP reported a strong finish to 2020, with Q4 revenues up 24% y-o-y and 4% ahead of our forecast, driving FY20 profitability ahead of expectations. Order intake has normalised to pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting continued strong demand from the semiconductor sector. We have revised our estimates to reflect strong Q420 performance and the weaker dollar, driving a 3.0% increase in FY20 EPS and a 2.3% cut to our FY21 EPS.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

Diluted EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

195.1

41.2

172.8

85.0

29.5

1.7

12/19

199.9

33.2

145.5

55.0

35.1

1.1

12/20e

232.9

41.9

167.9

72.0

30.4

1.4

12/21e

227.4

42.2

169.2

92.0

30.1

1.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q420 revenue ahead; bookings in line

XP reported revenue of £58.8m for Q420 (+25% y-o-y, +26% constant currency, cc) and £232.9m for FY20 (+16% y-o-y), 1% ahead of our £230.7m forecast. Order intake was £55.9m for Q420 (-4% y-o-y, -2% cc) and £258.0m for FY20 (+20% y-o-y), in line with our forecast. Book-to-bill was 0.95x for Q420 and 1.11x for FY20. XP anticipates FY20 profits will be ahead of expectations due to strong healthcare demand driving efficiency gains and higher gross margins. Net debt at the end FY20 of £18.0m was substantially lower than our £38.2m forecast, mainly due to good working capital management, but aided by the weaker dollar at year-end. The company expects to propose a final dividend of at least 34p when it reports results on 2 March, ahead of our 30p forecast.

Forecast revisions reflect stronger demand and FX

Q4 order intake was strong, helped by demand from semiconductor equipment companies and XP expects further underlying (ie constant currency) revenue growth in FY21. We have revised our FY20 forecasts to reflect stronger revenues and higher than expected cash generation in Q420, lifting normalised diluted EPS by 3.0%. For FY21, while we have increased our cc revenue growth rate from 2.9% to 3.8%, a revision to our FY21 $/£ exchange rate forecast from 1.30 to 1.36, reflecting the weakening of the dollar over Q420, results in a 2.8% cut to our FY21 revenue forecast and a 2.3% cut in normalised diluted EPS. Our end FY21 net debt forecast reduces from £27.2m to £13.7m. We have raised our dividend forecasts for both years: FY20e from 68p to 72p, FY21e from 87p to 92p.

Valuation: Reflects robust performance

On a P/E basis, XP is trading at a premium to global power converter companies and UK electronics companies for FY20 and FY21. In our view, this reflects XP’s strong performance over a difficult year and EBIT margins ahead of both peer groups. While there remains uncertainty over demand in this period of disruption, we highlight XP’s strong backlog and balance sheet.

Changes to forecasts

We have made the following changes to forecasts:

Revenue: we have increased our dollar-based revenue growth forecast for FY21 from 2.9% to 3.8%, reflecting continued strong demand in Q420. We have revised our $/£ assumption for FY21 from 1.30 to 1.36 reflecting the recent weakening of the dollar versus sterling. Combined, this results in a 2.8% reduction in FY21 revenues.

Gross margin: we have increased this for H220 and FY21 to reflect better performance in H220.

Net interest cost: we have reduced this by £0.5m in FY21 to reflect the lower level of debt.

Net debt: we have reduced accounts receivable and inventory to reflect better collections and the weaker dollar at year-end. We have also factored in the exchange rate in the translation of the dollar-denominated debt.

Dividend: reflecting the higher-than-expected final dividend expected for FY20, we have increased our dividend forecasts for both years.

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY20e

FY21e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Revenues

230.7

232.9

0.9%

16.5%

233.8

227.4

(2.8%)

(2.3%)

Gross profit

103.9

107.3

3.3%

19.1%

106.0

104.3

(1.6%)

(2.8%)

Gross margin

45.0%

46.1%

1.1%

1.0%

45.3%

45.9%

0.5%

(0.2%)

EBITDA

54.0

55.3

2.3%

21.7%

57.0

55.5

(2.6%)

0.5%

EBITDA margin

23.4%

23.7%

0.3%

1.0%

24.4%

24.4%

0.0%

0.7%

Normalised operating profit

42.6

43.9

2.9%

22.2%

45.2

43.7

(3.3%)

(0.3%)

Normalised operating margin

18.5%

18.8%

0.4%

0.9%

19.3%

19.2%

(0.1%)

0.4%

Reported operating profit

31.8

33.1

3.9%

23.8%

42.0

40.5

(3.5%)

22.6%

Reported operating margin

13.8%

14.2%

0.4%

0.8%

18.0%

17.8%

(0.1%)

3.6%

Normalised PBT

40.6

41.9

3.0%

26.1%

43.2

42.2

(2.3%)

0.9%

Reported PBT

29.8

31.1

4.1%

29.4%

40.0

39.0

(2.4%)

25.6%

Normalised net income

32.3

33.2

3.0%

17.1%

34.3

33.5

(2.3%)

0.8%

Reported net income

23.6

24.6

4.2%

20.0%

31.7

31.0

(2.5%)

25.9%

Normalised basic EPS (p)

166.0

171.1

3.0%

15.4%

176.5

172.4

(2.3%)

0.8%

Normalised diluted EPS (p)

162.9

167.9

3.0%

15.4%

173.2

169.2

(2.3%)

0.8%

Reported basic EPS (p)

121.5

126.6

4.2%

18.3%

163.3

159.3

(2.5%)

25.9%

Dividend per share (p)

68.0

72.0

5.9%

30.9%

87.0

92.0

5.7%

27.8%

Net debt/(cash)

38.2

18.0

(52.9%)

(56.4%)

27.2

13.7

(49.6%)

(23.7%)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'m

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

109.7

129.8

166.8

195.1

199.9

232.9

227.4

Cost of Sales

(55.1)

(67.8)

(89.2)

(102.8)

(109.8)

(125.5)

(123.1)

Gross Profit

54.6

62.0

77.6

92.3

90.1

107.3

104.3

EBITDA

 

 

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

45.4

55.3

55.5

Normalised operating profit

 

 

25.9

28.8

36.4

42.9

35.9

43.9

43.7

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

(0.4)

(0.6)

(2.8)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Exceptionals

(0.3)

(0.4)

(3.3)

(0.8)

(6.0)

(7.6)

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

25.6

28.0

32.5

39.3

26.7

33.1

40.5

Net Interest

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(1.7)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(1.5)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptional & other financial

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

25.7

28.6

36.1

41.2

33.2

41.9

42.2

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

25.4

27.8

32.2

37.6

24.0

31.1

39.0

Reported tax

(5.5)

(6.3)

(3.6)

(7.2)

(3.2)

(6.2)

(7.8)

Profit After Tax (norm)

20.2

22.3

28.8

33.9

28.7

33.5

33.8

Profit After Tax (reported)

19.9

21.5

28.6

30.4

20.8

24.8

31.2

Minority interests

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

20.0

22.1

28.5

33.7

28.4

33.2

33.5

Net income (reported)

19.7

21.3

28.3

30.2

20.5

24.6

31.0

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

19.0

19.0

19.1

19.1

19.2

19.4

19.4

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

105.3

116.2

149.4

176.1

148.3

171.1

172.4

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

104.3

115.3

147.0

172.8

145.5

167.9

169.2

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

103.7

112.0

148.3

157.8

107.0

126.6

159.3

Dividend (p)

66

71

78

85

55

72

92

Revenue growth (%)

8.5

18.3

28.5

17.0

2.5

16.5

(-2.3)

Gross Margin (%)

49.8

47.8

46.5

47.3

45.1

46.1

45.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

27.0

25.4

25.0

25.2

22.7

23.7

24.4

Normalised Operating Margin

23.6

22.2

21.8

22.0

18.0

18.8

19.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

65.4

73.2

88.1

129.2

137.4

141.1

142.6

Intangible Assets

48.2

53.0

63.9

97.7

99.6

102.7

103.3

Tangible Assets

16.1

19.1

22.5

30.7

35.9

36.5

37.4

Investments & other

1.1

1.1

1.7

0.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

Current Assets

 

 

53.5

65.7

83.5

105.1

96.0

109.9

111.9

Stocks

28.7

32.2

37.8

56.5

44.1

45.7

44.9

Debtors

17.5

21.5

23.8

33.0

34.8

33.8

37.4

Cash & cash equivalents

4.9

9.2

15.0

11.5

11.2

24.5

23.8

Other

2.4

2.8

6.9

4.1

5.9

5.9

5.9

Current Liabilities

 

 

(19.8)

(25.8)

(25.1)

(26.8)

(30.4)

(36.8)

(33.5)

Creditors

(14.6)

(16.1)

(21.4)

(22.4)

(25.2)

(31.6)

(28.3)

Tax and social security

(1.2)

(3.3)

(3.5)

(4.2)

(3.1)

(3.1)

(3.1)

Short term borrowings

(4.0)

(5.5)

0.0

0.0

(1.6)

(1.6)

(1.6)

Other

0.0

(0.9)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(10.0)

(6.2)

(29.6)

(70.1)

(64.1)

(52.6)

(46.1)

Long term borrowings

(4.6)

0.0

(24.0)

(63.5)

(57.3)

(45.8)

(39.3)

Other long term liabilities

(5.4)

(6.2)

(5.6)

(6.6)

(6.8)

(6.8)

(6.8)

Net Assets

 

 

89.1

106.9

116.9

137.4

138.9

161.6

174.9

Minority interests

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(0.7)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

88.3

106.1

116.0

136.4

138.2

160.8

174.1

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

45.4

55.3

55.5

Working capital

(4.6)

(6.1)

0.4

(21.6)

10.6

5.8

(6.1)

Exceptional & other

0.6

5.1

(6.3)

3.2

(5.3)

(6.4)

0.0

Tax

(4.7)

(4.1)

(6.1)

(4.1)

(4.5)

(6.2)

(7.8)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

21.0

27.9

29.7

26.7

46.2

48.4

41.7

Capex

(5.4)

(6.8)

(10.1)

(15.0)

(16.3)

(19.5)

(16.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(8.3)

0.1

(18.3)

(35.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(1.5)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(1.5)

Equity financing

0.0

0.2

(0.2)

0.6

0.5

(0.6)

0.0

Dividends

(12.2)

(13.1)

(14.2)

(15.6)

(17.2)

(7.5)

(17.9)

Other

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

Net Cash Flow

(4.8)

8.1

(13.3)

(40.2)

9.0

17.3

4.3

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1.3)

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

18.0

FX

(0.2)

(0.5)

0.6

(2.7)

1.7

6.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.1

(0.2)

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

18.0

13.7

Source: XP Power, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Gamesys Group — A strong end to the debut year of the larger group

Gamesys has reported a positive pre-close trading update. Strong momentum continued into Q420 and management now expects FY20 pro forma revenue and adjusted EBITDA will be at or above the upper end of current market expectations. We increase our FY21 and FY22 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 4–6% due to higher revenue growth from a larger active customer base, and a higher and stable EBITDA margin that reflects ongoing investment in growing a sustainable business with a focus on responsible gambling. On our new forecasts, the free cash flow (FCF) yield for FY21e is 10.1% and the dividend yield is 3.0%.

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