JDC Group — Strong FY25 guidance and FY30 targets

JDC Group (SCALE: JDC)

Last close As at 11/03/2025

EUR21.90

−0.40 (−1.79%)

Market capitalisation

EUR305m

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Research: Financials

JDC Group — Strong FY25 guidance and FY30 targets

JDC Group (JDC) has reported very strong preliminary Q424 results, with revenue growth of 28.4% and record EBITDA of €5.9m (Q423: €5.0m). Growth was driven by the platform Advisortech division, but Advisory activities were also strong. Management provided FY25 guidance of €245–265m in revenue and EBITDA of €18.5–20.5m, as well as mid-term guidance of €450–500m turnover with EBITDA of €40–50m by 2030. CEO Sebastian Grabmaier and CFO Ralph Konrad have extended their contracts to 2030. Our estimates are under review pending the final results, which will be published on 31 March.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director of Content, Investment Trusts

Diversified financials

Preliminary results

11 March 2025

Price €21.20
Market cap €299m

Net cash/(debt) at Q324

€6.7m

Shares in issue

13.7m
Code JDC
Primary exchange FRA
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance

Business description

JDC Group is a leading German insurance platform, providing advice and financial services for professional intermediaries and banks but also directly for end-customers. JDC’s digital platform, for end-clients and for the administration and processing of insurance products, is also provided as a white-label product.

Analysts

Milosz Papst
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Edwin De Jong
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

JDC Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: EPS is reported.

Year end Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) EPS (€) DPS (€) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
12/22 156.1 9.0 0.07 0.00 N/A 32.6
12/23 171.7 11.7 0.28 0.00 75.9 25.0
12/24 252.0 15.2 0.45 0.00 47.2 19.3
12/25e 258.6 23.3 0.79 0.00 26.8 12.6

JDC’s preliminary Q4 figures showed revenue growth of 28.4%, largely organic, as Top Ten Financial Network was acquired in December 2023. The Advisortech division showed the strongest revenue growth of 31.4% (including Top Ten). However, the Advisory division also performed well, with almost 16% growth to €11.1m. Life insurance activity was strong in Q4, especially in December. Property and casualty insurance premiums are increasing at insurance companies and JDC benefits from this as it receives a percentage of commissions, which are typically a percentage of paid insurance premiums. EBITDA increased 18.1% to €5.9m and net income by 20.2% to €3.1m. For FY24, EBITDA amounted to €15.9m, excluding Top Ten integration costs of €0.8m. Management issued guidance for FY25 turnover of €245–265m and EBITDA of €19.5m, at the mid-point of the €18.5–20.5m range.

Q4 gross and EBITDA margins were lower year-on-year. Gross margin pressure is already visible for a longer time, with clients getting bigger and competition from players such as Blau Direct and Fonds Finanz steepening as the market matures and consolidates. There were also negative effects on the EBITDA margin in Q4 due to the integration of Top Ten (€0.2m), an exceptionally strong Q423 comparison base and performance fees in the Asset Management activities, which carry lower margins. While gross margin pressure is more structural, the reasons for the EBITDA margin pressure in Q4 are temporary. Moreover, JDC employed AI applications that replaced 12–15 staff in FY24 and >10 replacements are expected in FY25. This could bring EBITDA margin relief.

JDC also issued new medium-term guidance of €450–500m in revenue with EBITDA of €40–50m. This implies roughly a doubling of revenue in five years and 2.3x FY25e EBITDA at the mid-point. JDC has doubled its revenues in the last five years, from a turnover of €123m in 2020 to an expected turnover of €255m this year at mid-point guidance, and has almost quadrupled EBITDA in the same timeframe. Management indicated in the conference call after the results that no material M&A is needed to reach the target, although M&A is certainly on the agenda. With tailwinds from the underlying trends of digitisation, regulation, demography and consolidation and a current market share of around 0.6%, JDC expects the revenue target to be conservative. The expected progress of the EBITDA margin is less than in the previous five-year period as the market is maturing.

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