Gaining share across all key markets
H118 results: Strong growth amidst complex integration
Against the backdrop of a complex integration, GVC has produced an impressive set of interim figures. Pro-forma H118 NGR growth of 8% of £1,717m was driven by an 18% increase in Online and 29% growth in European Retail. As expected, UK Retail declined 5% to £665m. Altogether, the FIFA World Cup contributed £35m of NGR in H118 (pre-substitution) and £64m for the whole tournament. Current trading into Q3 is strong, with group NGR up 14% and Online up 30% (18–19% excluding FIFA).
Online (52% of NGR): 18% growth
Online NGR increased 18% to £895m, reflecting market share gains across all key territories, as well as a positive World Cup. For Sports Brands, NGR increased 19%, driven by a 23% increase in the legacy GVC brands, as well as a 36% increase in Eurobet.it. Ladbrokes.com grew 7%, although trading into Q2 and Q3 has been stronger, bringing it more in line with the Coral Brand. The Games Brands NGR increased 13% and was boosted by an impressive 36% increase in Partypoker.
The contribution margin for the Online business declined from 44.7% to 40.7%, largely due to front-ended FIFA World Cup-related marketing spend and the introduction of the point of consumption tax (POCT) on UK gross bets. Total Online marketing spend was 26% of NGR in the period (vs 23.7% in H117). Management anticipates that full-year online contribution margin will be 42–43%, as the impact of front-end marketing costs reverses.
UK Retail (39% of NGR): 5% decline
For the UK Retail division, a good World Cup helped to offset the impact of poor weather in Q118. For H118, OTC wagers declined 8% (-6% l-f-l), the margin remained flat at 17.9% and total NGR declined by 5% to £665m. The contribution margin for the UK Retail division declined from 72.0% to 71.4%.
The total number of shops declined from 3,660 at FY17 to 3,562 at H118 and preparations are underway for c 1000 shop closures once the Fixed Odds Betting Terminal (FOBT) limits are introduced. Alongside the new FOBT rollout, the implementation of the new shop till system, EPOS2, will be completed in 2019.
European Retail (8% of NGR): 29% growth
European Retail NGR increased by 29% to £134m, as a result of strong organic growth in Eurobet Italy, estate growth in Ladbrokes Belgium and an increase in the OTC margin (from 14.8% to 17.8%). The contribution margin increased from 48.4% to 50.0%, with lower payments to franchisees offset by front-ended World Cup marketing costs.
GVC has announced it will seek to grow this business through small bolt-on acquisitions and it believes it is particularly well placed in Italy once an advertising ban on online operators is enforced.
Trading: Strong Q3, FY18 expectations unchanged
Trading remains robust, with group NGR up 14% and Online NGR up 30% (or 18–19% excluding the impact of the World Cup). Management has stated the group remains on track to meet its FY18 expectations and we believe it should comfortably meet consensus figures. Our 2018e EBITDA forecast remains unchanged.
Exhibit 1: Divisional forecasts
P&L |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
Online |
1,296.3 |
1,602.8 |
1,838.7 |
1,968.8 |
2,157.4 |
UK Retail |
1,431.1 |
1,391.1 |
1,318.0 |
1,254.9 |
802.0 |
European Retail |
212.0 |
240.9 |
268.7 |
286.6 |
309.7 |
Other |
59.4 |
56.7 |
47.3 |
48.2 |
49.2 |
Total NGR |
2,998.8 |
3,291.5 |
3,472.7 |
3,558.5 |
3,318.3 |
growth |
0.0% |
9.8% |
5.5% |
2.5% |
-6.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Online |
286.2 |
406.9 |
467.5 |
531.5 |
592.9 |
UK Retail |
253.3 |
256.6 |
246.0 |
225.9 |
56.1 |
European Retail |
41.5 |
48.6 |
55.0 |
57.3 |
65.0 |
Other |
(12.6) |
(0.3) |
3.8 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
Corporate |
(45.0) |
(45.3) |
(42.0) |
(45.0) |
(47.0) |
Synergies |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.5 |
20.0 |
58.0 |
Total EBITDA |
523.4 |
666.5 |
734.9 |
794.5 |
730.0 |
EBITDA margin |
17.5% |
20.2% |
21.2% |
22.3% |
22.0% |
Source: Company accounts and Edison Investment Research
MGM JV: Creating a leading player in the US market
In July 2018, GVC and MGM Resorts announced the establishment of a 50/50 JV with a 25-year exclusive agreement. The initial combined contribution is $200m. In essence, this JV should create a leading US sports betting and interactive gaming platform with world-class content, state of the art proprietary technology and broad distribution. As highlighted in Exhibit 2 below, the JV provides access to 15 states and we believe the venture leaves GVC well placed to benefit from what is likely to be the largest regulated gaming market globally.
Global Market Advisors has estimated that the US sports betting market could generate gross gaming revenues of c $9bn, split across the entire country. At this stage, it is difficult to know how much market share GVC might gain within this context, but clearly the opportunities are significant. Given the early stage of the regulatory environment and the limited visibility as to revenue progression, US revenues are not included in our forecasts.
|
|
|
Source: GVC Investor Presentation (September 2018)
|
Other markets: More bolt-on acquisitions expected
GVC completed the acquisition of 51% of Crystalbet for £36m in April 2018, with an agreement to buy a further 49% for a maximum consideration of £172.5m in 2021 (outside our forecast period). As detailed at the H118 results, Crystalbet’s results have already been impressive, with pro-forma H118 NGR increasing by 80% (we estimate c £25m NGR at H118) and over 300 games added via GVC content deals.
Management has stated that it is actively seeking other similar M&A opportunities, with the focus on regulated markets. GVC will also consider retail M&A where there is an opportunity to accelerate online growth.
Regulatory decisions are an important feature for all gaming companies. In this section we highlight the key upcoming changes that are likely to meaningfully affect GVC.
■
UK FOBT: the changes in the maximum B2 stakes (£2 limit) are expected to be enacted in 2018, although the implementation date is still uncertain. We continue to model the impact of the £2 FOBT limit from 2020. GVC anticipates a £120m fully mitigated impact on group EBITDA by the end of the second year of implementation. Please see our June update for further details.
■
UK potential RGD increase: the government is expected to announce an update on remote gaming duty in the November budget, which is widely expected to be increased from 15% to 20%. This is not in our figures and would have a negative impact of c £20–25m on group EBITDA.
■
Australian POCT: the majority of states will implement the online POCT on January 2019. The exceptions are Queensland (October 2018) and South Australia (July 2017). The blended rate impact for the group is c 11.5% of gross gaming revenue and this is already in our forecasts.
■
Italy: all forms of direct marketing on gaming products will be banned from mid-2019. In this context, GVC believes it will be competitively well placed given its 836 shops, where in-store recruitment will be the only viable way of attracting customers online.
Following the H118 results and updated guidance on depreciation and capex spend, we have updated our financial forecasts:
■
Our revenue and EBITDA forecasts remain broadly unchanged, with c 1% increase in 2018e revenues largely due to slightly higher estimates for the Online and European Retail divisions.
■
We have increased our dividend estimate from 30p to 32p, on the back of the 16p announcement, which will be split evenly H1/H2.
■
Management has guided to depreciation and amortisation levels of £140m in 2018, £155m in 2019 and £165m in 2020. This compares to our previous estimates of £137m per year and is the main reason for our lowered EPS forecasts.
■
We forecast net debt of £1,887m at YE18, which is flat vs H118, and equates to 2.6x net debt/EBITDA. Our net debt/EBITDA ratio falls to 2.2x at the end of 2019.
Exhibit 4: Forecast changes
|
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA (£m) |
EPS (p) |
|
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
2018e |
3,435 |
3,473 |
1.1 |
735 |
735 |
0.0 |
74.6 |
73.0 |
(2.1) |
2019e |
3,536 |
3,559 |
0.7 |
804 |
795 |
(1.1) |
84.8 |
79.8 |
(5.9) |
2020e |
3,454 |
3,318 |
(0.4) |
740 |
730 |
(1.4) |
76.7 |
69.4 |
(9.5) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
|
|
£'m |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
31-December |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue (NGR) |
|
|
2,998.8 |
3,291.5 |
3,472.7 |
3,558.5 |
3,318.3 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(1,233.8) |
(1,418.7) |
(1,581.7) |
(1,631.8) |
(1,620.4) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
1,765.0 |
1,872.8 |
1,890.9 |
1,926.8 |
1,698.0 |
EBITDA |
|
|
523.4 |
666.5 |
734.9 |
794.5 |
730.0 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
376.4 |
529.5 |
594.9 |
639.5 |
565.0 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
|
|
(200.0) |
(380.0) |
(250.0) |
(200.0) |
(150.0) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(534.3) |
(59.5) |
(142.0) |
(39.0) |
(103.0) |
Share-based payments |
|
|
(31.8) |
(20.7) |
(12.5) |
(12.5) |
(12.5) |
Reported operating profit |
|
|
(389.7) |
69.3 |
190.4 |
388.0 |
299.5 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(124.6) |
(72.0) |
(85.0) |
(80.2) |
(75.0) |
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
|
|
5.9 |
5.3 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
257.7 |
462.8 |
511.0 |
560.6 |
491.6 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(508.5) |
2.5 |
106.5 |
309.1 |
226.1 |
Reported tax |
|
|
23.6 |
(9.9) |
(66.4) |
(72.9) |
(63.9) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
257.7 |
462.8 |
511.0 |
560.6 |
491.6 |
Profit After Tax (reported) |
|
|
(508.5) |
2.5 |
106.5 |
309.1 |
226.1 |
Minority interests |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(8.0) |
(10.4) |
(12.5) |
Discontinued operations |
|
|
28.4 |
(13.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net income (normalised) |
|
|
222.1 |
402.6 |
436.6 |
477.3 |
415.2 |
Net income (reported) |
|
|
(456.5) |
(20.6) |
32.1 |
225.8 |
149.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
|
NM |
NM |
578 |
578 |
578 |
EPS - basic normalised (p) |
|
|
NM |
NM |
75.48 |
82.52 |
71.78 |
EPS - diluted normalised (p) |
|
|
NM |
NM |
72.95 |
79.76 |
69.38 |
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
|
NM |
NM |
5.54 |
39.04 |
25.88 |
Dividend (p) |
|
|
NM |
NM |
32.00 |
34.00 |
36.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue growth (%) |
|
|
NM |
10% |
6% |
2% |
-7% |
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
58.9 |
56.9 |
54.5 |
54.1 |
51.2 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
17.5 |
20.2 |
21.2 |
22.3 |
22.0 |
Normalised Operating Margin |
|
|
12.6 |
16.1 |
17.1 |
18.0 |
17.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
6,040.7 |
6,082.0 |
6,779.8 |
6,574.8 |
6,399.8 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
5,605.3 |
5,607.0 |
6,224.0 |
6,054.0 |
5,926.0 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
245.0 |
264.4 |
210.0 |
175.0 |
128.0 |
Investments & other |
|
|
190.4 |
210.7 |
345.8 |
345.8 |
345.8 |
Current Assets |
|
|
792.0 |
773.8 |
785.2 |
817.2 |
835.2 |
Stocks |
|
|
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Debtors |
|
|
342.6 |
258.7 |
393.2 |
413.2 |
433.2 |
Cash & cash equivalents |
|
|
272.2 |
328.8 |
175.0 |
172.0 |
160.0 |
Other |
|
|
175.6 |
184.3 |
215.0 |
230.0 |
240.0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(1,583.1) |
(1,121.0) |
(1,031.0) |
(1,021.0) |
(1,011.0) |
Creditors |
|
|
(699.9) |
(594.1) |
(815.0) |
(805.0) |
(795.0) |
Tax and social security |
|
|
(67.7) |
(253.8) |
(40.0) |
(40.0) |
(40.0) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(742.4) |
(200.0) |
(50.0) |
(50.0) |
(50.0) |
Other |
|
|
(73.1) |
(73.1) |
(126.0) |
(126.0) |
(126.0) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,052.8) |
(1,513.9) |
(2,622.1) |
(2,510.0) |
(2,360.0) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(749.6) |
(1,212.1) |
(2,012.1) |
(1,900.0) |
(1,750.0) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(303.2) |
(301.8) |
(610.0) |
(610.0) |
(610.0) |
Net Assets |
|
|
4,196.9 |
4,220.9 |
3,911.9 |
3,861.0 |
3,864.0 |
Minority interests |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
4,196.9 |
4,220.9 |
3,911.9 |
3,861.0 |
3,864.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
|
|
558.6 |
701.2 |
596.9 |
794.5 |
730.0 |
Working capital |
|
|
3.8 |
(29.1) |
(50.0) |
(25.0) |
(25.0) |
Exceptional & other |
|
|
(534.3) |
(59.5) |
(142.0) |
(39.0) |
(73.0) |
Tax |
|
|
(6.5) |
(14.9) |
(60.0) |
(72.9) |
(63.9) |
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
21.7 |
597.7 |
344.9 |
657.6 |
568.1 |
Capex |
|
|
(58.2) |
(205.8) |
(177.0) |
(150.0) |
(140.0) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(1,032.4) |
(6.0) |
(3,157.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net interest |
|
|
(71.1) |
(101.3) |
(50.0) |
(80.2) |
(75.0) |
Equity financing |
|
|
158.8 |
47.0 |
2,497.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
|
|
(30.4) |
(200.1) |
(138.5) |
(190.7) |
(202.3) |
Other |
|
|
109.3 |
0.0 |
(123.0) |
(127.3) |
(12.5) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(902.4) |
131.5 |
(803.6) |
109.3 |
138.3 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
312.7 |
1,215.1 |
1,083.5 |
1,887.2 |
1,777.9 |
FX |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other non-cash movements |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,215.1 |
1,083.5 |
1,887.2 |
1,777.9 |
1,639.6 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by GVC Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. 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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
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