Hurricane Energy — Strong Lancaster EPS performance

Hurricane Energy (LN: HUR)

Last close As at 20/12/2024

3.05

0.03 (0.99%)

Market capitalisation

61m

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Research: Energy & Resources

Hurricane Energy — Strong Lancaster EPS performance

Hurricane has announced an update on the strong ongoing performance of the Lancaster early production system (EPS), with recent individual well tests supporting guidance of 20,000bod for FY20 (before operational downtime). It has also been granted a five-year extension to its P1368 licence, covering Lancaster and Lincoln, resulting in changes to its 2020 work programme. One or more sub-vertical wells will be drilled on both Lincoln (in 2020) and Lancaster (in 2021) to determine the maximum vertical extent of the reservoir, while the Greater Warwick Area horizontal wells will no longer be drilled next year. Hurricane estimates FY19 oil production of 3.1mmbbl, representing an average of 13,300bod, generating revenue of c $165m and year-end unrestricted cash of c $150m. We plan to update our numbers shortly to reflect FY19/20 guidance.

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Energy & Resources

Hurricane Energy

Strong Lancaster EPS performance

Operational update

Oil & gas

16 December 2019

Price

33.2p

Market cap

£661m

US$1.23/£

Net debt ($m) at 30 June 2019

108.6

Shares in issue

1,990m

Free float

80%

Code

HUR

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Hurricane Energy is an E&P focused on fractured basement exploration and development in the West of Shetland region. The company’s 100%-owned Lancaster oil discovery (523mmbbl 2P reserves + 2C resources) achieved first oil on target in H119.

Analysts

Carlos Gomes

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Elaine Reynolds

+44 (0)20 3077 5713

Hurricane Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Hurricane has announced an update on the strong ongoing performance of the Lancaster early production system (EPS), with recent individual well tests supporting guidance of 20,000bod for FY20 (before operational downtime). It has also been granted a five-year extension to its P1368 licence, covering Lancaster and Lincoln, resulting in changes to its 2020 work programme. One or more sub-vertical wells will be drilled on both Lincoln (in 2020) and Lancaster (in 2021) to determine the maximum vertical extent of the reservoir, while the Greater Warwick Area horizontal wells will no longer be drilled next year. Hurricane estimates FY19 oil production of 3.1mmbbl, representing an average of 13,300bod, generating revenue of c $165m and year-end unrestricted cash of c $150m. We plan to update our numbers shortly to reflect FY19/20 guidance.

Year-end

Revenue
($m)

EBITDA
($m)

Operating
cash flow ($m)

Capex*
($m)

Net debt/
(cash) ($m)

12/17

0.0

(14.6)

(8.1)

(265.7)

(133.5)

12/18

0.0

(12.6)

(4.4)

(209.9)

103.4

12/19e

113.2

68.1

23.4

(35.6)

115.6

12/20e

365.0

256.8

235.6

(59.5)

(60.6)

Note: *Capex is net of carried investment by Spirit Energy.

The Lancaster EPS has continued to demonstrate high productivity, while vessel uptime is 90% vs previous guidance of 85%. Individual flow tests have confirmed a flow of 14,700bod from the 205/21a-6 well with minimal water cut, and 9,400bod from 205/21a-7Z with a water cut of 25–30%, both under natural flow. On this basis, the company has maintained its FY20 guidance of 20,000bod for now, which could be updated following the completion of the individual flow tests in January 2020. Water production is in line with the company’s modelled expectations for perched water and is not believed to be from aquifer water breakthrough. Tie-back of a Lincoln well could be delayed into 2021 pending OGA regulatory approval.

The extension of the P1368 licence has resulted in commitment wells in Lancaster and Lincoln. To minimise rig downtime, the drilling of a third horizontal producing well is being considered in Lancaster in 2020. First oil from this well, if drilled, would be expected in late 2021. The company also announced the relinquishment of Whirlwind and Strathmore. Hurricane plans to hold a capital markets day on 25 March where key detailed data from Lancaster EPS will provided.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hurricane Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hurricane Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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New Zealand

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hurricane Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hurricane Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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