SDX Energy — Strong netback; active 2019 well programme

SDX Energy (LN: SDX)

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17.50

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Market capitalisation

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Research: Energy & Resources

SDX Energy — Strong netback; active 2019 well programme

The acquisition of Circle Oil assets, strong oil prices and cost discipline drove up group operational netbacks from US$22.5/boe in H117 to US$32.9/boe in H118, with the group generating net cash from operations of US$20.3m. Funds from operations helped SDX Energy to support an active H118 drilling programme while maintaining a strong balance sheet position, ending the half-year with US$25.2m of cash and an undrawn credit facility of US$10m. As highlighted in our recent research note, Looking ahead at 2019 work programme, SDX remains on track to double production in 2018, while investing in an active E&A programme and development drilling in both Egypt and Morocco. Our valuation remains broadly unchanged at 92.7p/share (from 92.5p/share) as we include a slightly higher capex estimate for delivery of first gas at South Disouq.

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Energy & Resources

SDX Energy

Strong netback; active 2019 well programme

Q218 results

Oil & gas

30 August 2018

Price

60p

Market cap

£123m

US$/£0.73

Net cash ($m) at 30 June 2018

25.2

Shares in issue

204.5m

Free float

86%

Code

SDX

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

TSX Venture

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.2

(2.8)

32.6

Rel (local)

5.8

(2.1)

28.0

52-week high/low

73.0p

43.8p

Business description

SDX Energy is a North African E&P listed in London and Toronto. It has oil and gas production in Egypt and Moroccan gas production.

Next events

South Disouq 3D seismic acquisition

Q418

Analysts

Sanjeev Bahl

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Elaine Reynolds

+44 (0)20 3077 5713

Carlos Gomes

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

SDX Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The acquisition of Circle Oil assets, strong oil prices and cost discipline drove up group operational netbacks from US$22.5/boe in H117 to US$32.9/boe in H118, with the group generating net cash from operations of US$20.3m. Funds from operations helped SDX Energy to support an active H118 drilling programme while maintaining a strong balance sheet position, ending the half-year with US$25.2m of cash and an undrawn credit facility of US$10m. As highlighted in our recent research note, Looking ahead at 2019 work programme, SDX remains on track to double production in 2018, while investing in an active E&A programme and development drilling in both Egypt and Morocco. Our valuation remains broadly unchanged at 92.7p/share (from 92.5p/share) as we include a slightly higher capex estimate for delivery of first gas at South Disouq.

Year end

Revenue
($m)

PBT*
($m)

Operating cash
flow ($m)

Net cash
($m)

Capex
($m)

12/16

12.9

(26.7)

(1.9)

4.7

(11.9)

12/17

39.2

32.8

21.6

25.8

(24.9)

12/18e

56.0

18.6

42.3

28.7

(40.7)

12/19e

86.7

51.1

63.1

56.5

(37.2)

Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. Includes Circle acquisition ($28.1m).

Upcoming catalysts

2019 drilling will focus on Ibn Yunus lookalikes in Egypt, with combined unrisked recoverable volumes of c.201.5bcf and 34bcf in the Abu Madi structural trap. In addition, an upcoming bid round in Egypt could provide SDX with an option to extend its acreage position to include further Kafr el Sheik targets. SDX is also looking to test oil potential at South Disouq through the four-way drip, 50mmbo unrisked Young prospect in 2019. In Morocco, SDX has an 87% appraisal/development well success rate based on calibrated 3D seismic and is looking to leverage this success targeting 20bcf of gross unrisked resource in 2019.

Netbacks and balance sheet remain robust

SDX remains fully funded for planned work programmes based on our current forecasts with US$25m of cash at the half-year and an undrawn credit facility of US$10m from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, retaining the financial flexibility to pursue bolt-on acquisitions or additional activity through licensing rounds. Netbacks at US$32.9/boe were robust in H118, but we expect them to fall to US$19.4/boe in FY19 as higher volume/lower margin gas production from South Disouq comes on stream.

Valuation: No material changes

Our updated RENAV is broadly unchanged at 92.7p/share (from 92.5p/share). Key changes include an update on South Disouq prospective resource, and slightly higher capex offset by an increase in our short-term oil price estimates for FY18 and FY19, which are based on the latest EIA projections.

Valuation update

Our updated valuation is based on a 100bcf gas development at South Disouq and drill-ready gas prospects targeting 235.5bcf of mean unrisked prospective resource, with four prospects in Kafr El Sheik (Salah, Kahraba, Samir and Mohsen) and two prospects in the Abu Madi. We also continue to include the Young oil prospect, drilling for which is planned in 2019. In Morocco, we include our estimates of current discovered resource (following the 2017/18 E&A programme – excluding Lalla Mimouna until the well is tested). We also include Lalla Mimouna discoveries and 12 planned 2019 appraisal/development wells in our core valuation, as risks are only around individual wells meeting the minimum threshold for commerciality – we include these at a 75% chance of success.

Key changes include an increase in drill-ready prospective resource at South Disouq, slightly higher capex estimated for South Disouq offset by an increase in our short-term oil price assumptions, which move to US$71.7/bbl and US$70.6/bbl for 2018 and 2019. Our long-term oil price assumption remains at US$70.0/bbl Brent (2022). Our FX assumption has also changed slightly to US$/£0.73, based on the average of the first six months of 2018.

As a result, we have slightly increased our RENAV from 92.5p/share to 92.7p/share (0.2%), with our core value standing at 78.8p/share. We note that our valuation has a significant core value component at 85% of our RENAV.

Exhibit 1: Changes to our valuation

Old (p/share)

New (p/share)

Change (%)

Core NAV

79.8

78.8

-1.3

Development NAV

3.7

3.4

-9.9

Exploration risked upside

9.0

10.6

14.9

Group RENAV

92.5

92.7

0.2

Source: Edison Investment Research

A full breakdown of our risked valuation is provided in the table below. We split our valuation between core value, which includes booked 2P reserves, recent discoveries and low-risk development upside in Morocco. We include risked development upside at Meseda and Gemsa and risked exploration potential at South Disouq in our risked exploration NAV (RENAV).

Exhibit 2: SDX Energy detailed valuation

Recoverable reserves

Net risked value @12.5%

Asset

Country

Diluted WI

CoS

Gross

Net WI

Net

NPV

Absolute

GBp/
share

C$/
share

%

%

mmboe

mmboe

mmboe

$/boe

$m

Net (debt)/cash – December 2017e

100%

100%

25.8

9.2

0.2

SG&A – NPV12.5 of 3 years

100%

100%

(12.5)

(4.4)

(0.1)

E&A expense for exploration prospects

100%

100%

(18.5)

(6.6)

(0.1)

NPV of net receivable recovery

100%

100%

19.9

7.1

0.1

Sebou pipeline residual value (50% cost)

100%

100%

16.4

5.8

0.1

Production

Meseda Base + Workovers + Rabul

Egypt

50%

90%

9.8

4.9

1.9

4.9

21.7

7.7

0.1

Gemsa 2P

Egypt

50%

100%

4.5

2.3

2.3

11.7

26.4

9.4

0.2

Sebou 2P volume + discoveries to be booked

Morocco

75%

100%

1.2

0.9

0.9

38.7

35.1

12.5

0.2

Sebou 12-well 2019 programme

Morocco

75%

75%

5.3

4.0

4.0

29.6

89.0

31.7

0.6

South Disouq/Ibn Yunus

Egypt

55%

100%

17.6

9.7

9.7

1.9

18.2

6.5

0.1

Core NAV

38.5

21.8

18.7

8.8

221.5

78.8

1.4

Development upside

Meseda Waterflood Upside

Egypt

50%

50%

6.3

3.1

1.2

5.1

8.0

2.9

0.1

Gemsa - Edison modelling on full field

Egypt

50%

75%

0.9

0.5

0.5

4.1

1.4

0.5

0.0

Exploration (known)

Kafr el Sheik prospects x4

Egypt

55%

27%

33.6

18.5

18.5

1.6

8.0

2.8

0.1

Abu Madi prospect x2

Egypt

55%

23%

5.7

3.1

3.1

1.6

1.1

0.4

0.0

Young oil prospect

Egypt

55%

19%

50.0

27.5

27.5

4.0

20.6

7.3

0.1

Group RENAV

135.0

74.5

69.5

260.7

92.7

1.6

Source: Edison Investment Research; Note: Number of shares = 204.5m, FX = US$/£0.73.

The waterfall diagram below shows our valuation relative to the current share price.

Exhibit 3: SDX Energy valuation waterfall

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 4: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, Year-end: December, US$000s

 

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

11,372

12,914

39,166

56,002

86,654

85,544

Cost of sales

 

(4,973)

(5,282)

(10,254)

(11,334)

(15,320)

(13,529)

Gross profit

 

6,399

7,632

28,912

44,667

71,334

72,015

SG&A (expenses)

 

(4,770)

(3,679)

(8,793)

(5,500)

(5,775)

(6,064)

Other income/(expense)

 

1,021

1,701

1,820

1,186

1,914

1,526

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

(7,676)

(29,089)

(725)

(9,500)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

(2,057)

(3,266)

(17,824)

(12,244)

(15,374)

(14,618)

Reported EBIT

 

 

(7,083)

(26,701)

3,390

18,609

51,099

51,860

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

(96)

4

(129)

0

0

0

Other income/(expense)

 

 

18,289

0

29,558

0

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Reported PBT

 

 

11,110

(26,697)

32,819

18,609

51,099

51,860

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(1,063)

(1,503)

(4,541)

(1,831)

(2,941)

(2,604)

Reported net income

 

 

10,047

(28,200)

28,278

16,778

48,158

49,255

Shares at end of period - basic

 

 

38

80

204

204

204

204

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

18,401

12,605

54,445

76,210

92,386

90,600

Goodwill

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Intangible assets

 

 

23,473

10,623

15,231

13,412

19,063

21,361

Other non-current assets

 

 

2,106

2,503

2,724

2,724

2,724

2,724

Total non-current assets

 

 

43,980

25,731

72,400

92,346

114,173

114,685

Cash and equivalents

 

 

8,170

4,725

25,844

28,655

56,517

109,188

Inventories

 

 

1,188

1,698

5,157

5,700

7,705

6,804

Trade and other receivables

 

 

6,678

9,463

37,656

28,242

22,594

18,075

Other current assets

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total current assets

 

 

16,036

15,886

68,657

62,597

86,815

134,067

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

286

290

4,506

4,506

4,506

4,506

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

286

290

4,506

4,506

4,506

4,506

Trade and other payables

 

 

3,556

3,674

19,459

15,567

12,454

9,963

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other current liabilities

 

 

928

389

2,473

2,473

2,473

2,473

Total current liabilities

 

 

4,484

4,063

21,932

18,040

14,927

12,436

Equity attributable to company

 

 

55,246

37,264

114,619

132,397

181,555

231,811

Non-controlling interest

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

Profit before tax

 

 

11,110

(26,697)

32,819

18,609

51,099

51,860

Net finance expenses

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

2,057

3,266

17,824

12,244

15,374

14,618

Share based payments

 

 

761

(47)

538

1,000

1,000

1,000

Other adjustments

 

 

(12,281)

25,742

(34,613)

7,314

(1,914)

(1,526)

Movements in working capital

 

 

(2,183)

(3,440)

5,412

4,979

530

2,929

Interest paid/received

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Income taxes paid

 

 

(4,678)

(766)

(364)

(1,831)

(2,941)

(2,604)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

(5,214)

(1,942)

21,616

42,315

63,148

66,276

Capex

 

 

(5,120)

(11,890)

(24,917)

(40,691)

(37,200)

(15,131)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

0

0

(24,948)

0

0

0

Other investing activities

 

 

4,836

825

760

1,186

1,914

1,526

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

(12,524)

(284)

(11,065)

(49,105)

(39,504)

(35,286)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

0

10,127

48,510

0

0

0

Movements in debt

 

 

(3,702)

(96)

(43)

0

0

0

Other financing activities

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

(3,702)

10,031

48,467

0

0

0

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

(9,200)

(2,976)

20,978

2,811

27,862

52,672

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

(565)

(469)

141

0

0

0

Cash and equivalents at start of period

 

17,935

8,170

4,725

25,844

28,655

56,517

Net (debt)/cash end of period

 

 

8,170

4,725

25,844

28,655

56,517

109,188

Movement in net (debt)/cash over period

 

 

(7,558)

(3,445)

21,119

2,811

27,862

52,672

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SDX Energy and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SDX Energy and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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