Trifast — Strong progress as investment continues

Trifast — Strong progress as investment continues

A strong set of interim results has led us to upgrade our EPS forecasts for FY18 by 5.0% and FY19 by 2.5%. Other than a weather-related hiccup in the smaller US activity, there was good like-for-like progress in Europe, Asia and the UK. Input cost pressures at the gross profit level were mitigated by strong overhead control. Investment for growth continues across all regions and the strong balance sheet should facilitate M&A as appropriate opportunities arise with management taking a more proactive approach in target identification. Trifast’s shares have been very strong in the run-up to the results and are rated more appropriately, in our view, with the P/E discount to peers substantially diminished.

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Written by

Trifast

Strong progress as investment continues

H1 results

Industrial support services

21 November 2017

Price

240.5p

Market cap

£291m

Net debt (£m) at 30 Sept 2017

7.9

Shares in issue

120.3m

Free float

91%

Code

TRI

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

11.0

10.3

30.7

Rel (local)

12.9

9.3

18.9

52-week high/low

248.0p

182.0p

Business description

Trifast is a leading global designer, manufacturer and distributor of high-quality industrial fasteners. Principal operations are in the UK, South-East Asia and continental Europe, while there is a modest, but growing, presence in North America.

Next events

Trading update

February 2018

Analysts

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Annabel Hewson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Trifast is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

A strong set of interim results has led us to upgrade our EPS forecasts for FY18 by 5.0% and FY19 by 2.5%. Other than a weather-related hiccup in the smaller US activity, there was good like-for-like progress in Europe, Asia and the UK. Input cost pressures at the gross profit level were mitigated by strong overhead control. Investment for growth continues across all regions and the strong balance sheet should facilitate M&A as appropriate opportunities arise with management taking a more proactive approach in target identification. Trifast’s shares have been very strong in the run-up to the results and are rated more appropriately, in our view, with the P/E discount to peers substantially diminished.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/16

161.4

16.0

9.99

2.80

24.1

1.2

03/17

186.5

20.5

12.82

3.50

18.8

1.5

03/18e

199.1

21.3

13.19

3.65

18.2

1.5

03/19e

205.1

21.9

13.51

3.80

17.8

1.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are fully diluted and normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Good progress in the first half

H118 sales up 9% at £97.8m and a near 10% advance in underlying profit before tax represent very good progress as the company invests in future growth opportunities as well as operational performance. The growth was boosted by positive FX effects, with some of the anticipated input cost headwinds mitigated in the UK by improved export profitability. Nevertheless, the 4.8% growth in the top line at constant exchange rates (CER) and 4.5% CER growth at the underlying pre-tax level both reflect a sound trading environment as we enter the second half. As a result, while we still err on the side of caution with respect to both market growth and likely FX headwinds, we have increased our FY18 EPS forecast by 5%.

Strong balance sheet maintained

The company continues to invest both through operating and capital cost to build the business and increase operational efficiency. Net debt finished the half year at £7.9m, which represented an increase of just £1.5m in FY17. Given several adverse influences during the period including FX, stock build to more normal levels and share option programme-related outflows, the H118 report does reflect an encouraging performance and maintains a strong balance sheet position. The 10% net dividend increase to 1.1p per share in our view reflects both confidence in the current trading environment and an element of rebalancing the interim and final payments back towards a 1:2 payment ratio.

Valuation: Rated for success

The shares have advanced strongly since the preliminary results in June and especially in the last month or so. It would appear that the historic discount to Trifast’s peers has thus been largely eliminated, which we feel is reasonable.

H118 results

Group revenues increased 4.8% at constant exchange rates (CER) in H118, with all four regions of operation seeing improvements (UK: 35% of H118 group sales, Europe: 36%, Asia: 26% and the US: 3%). Gross profit margins fell 140bp, largely due to input cost inflation in Europe resulting from continued weakness of the euro against the US dollar, but remained slightly above the 30% target. However, good overhead control allowed operating margins to be held close to the previous year level at 11.3%.

Exhibit 1: Trifast half-yearly income statement and estimates summary

£000s

2017

2018e

% change

H1

H2

FY

H1

H2e

FYe

H1

H2e

FYe

Revenues

89,747

96,765

186,512

97,813

101,248

199,061

9.0%

4.6%

6.7%

Cost of sales

-61,347

-67,148

-128,495

-68,311

-70,435

-138,746

11.4%

4.9%

8.0%

Gross profit

28400

29,617

58,017

29,502

30,814

60,316

3.9%

4.0%

4.0%

Gross Margin

31.6%

30.6%

31.1%

30.2%

30.4%

30.3%

EBITDA

11,238

11,630

22,868

12,066

11,390

23,456

7.4%

-2.1%

2.6%

OPBIT (underlying)

10,262

10,756

21,018

11,131

10,513

21,644

8.5%

-2.3%

3.0%

Exceptional items

-1484

-1,673

-3,157

-1,791

-1,532

-3,323

20.7%

-38.3%

-10.6%

Financial Items

-313

-208

-521

-222

-145

-367

-29.1%

-30.2%

-29.5%

Pre-tax profit (underlying)

9,949

10,548

20,497

10,909

10,368

21,277

9.6%

-1.7%

3.8%

Taxation

-2336

-2,499

-4,835

-2,541

-2,459

-5,000

8.8%

-1.6%

3.4%

Tax rate

-23.5%

-23.7%

-23.6%

-23.3%

-23.7%

-23.5%

Net income (ongoing underlying)

7,613

8,049

15,662

8,368

7,909

16,277

9.9%

-1.7%

3.9%

EPS (p) - ongoing underlying diluted

6.27

12.82

6.78

13.19

8.1%

2.8%

DPS (p)

1.00

2.5

3.50

1.10

1.10

3.65

10.0%

4.3%

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates

First half performance in the UK saw sales rise by 4.1% to £35.4m, driven by strong distributor sales to mainland Europe as well as extended contract values at key OEMs. Underlying operating margins improved 190bp as the anticipated higher input costs arising from a weaker sterling were offset by FX gains on euro-based distributor sales. The UK business also benefited from continued overhead reduction.

In Europe, growth was steady at 2.4% CER, with reported sales rising 9.8% to £36.1m. In the demand segments, automotive growth is noted as being particularly strong, aided by share gains from recent investments. The overall growth was achieved despite some ongoing reduction in demand at a large domestic appliance customer following a previous product recall that had inflated volumes. The underlying operating margin performance was less favourable in the region with a 540bp fall to 10.9%. The fall arose from a combination of expected higher US$-based input costs, which depressed gross margin, especially in Italy, compounded by increased fixed production costs following the debottlenecking investment programme, as well as an increase in overheads. The overhead increase was largely due to expected start-up costs at the greenfield site in Spain.

Asia continued to grow strongly, with sales up 10.7% at CER, and reported sales rising 16.8% to £29.6m. Strong demand was seen by the domestic appliances business in Singapore as well as new business wins in the automotive sector for the operations in China, Malaysia and Taiwan. Underlying operating margins rose by 170bp to 14.7% largely due to operational leverage.

In the small US activity, the anticipated double-digit like-for-like sales growth in the period was adversely affected by disruption to electronics manufacturer sales caused by Hurricane Harvey. Sales rose by 3.7% to £3.1m or 10% on a reported basis to £3.3m, with a 190bp decline in underlying operating margin to 3.7% also reflecting continued investment to support future growth.

Net debt finished the half year at £7.9m, which represented an outflow of just £0.3m allowing for the £1.2m outflow of cash held over the year end to settle National Insurance and income tax liabilities that related to the chairman’s option exercise in February 2017.

At the end of the first half, Trifast had headroom of £16.2m in its banking facility, as well as access to a £20m accordion facility, which combine to provide significant funding resource for acquisitions and organic investment. Organic investment programmes in the current year include expansion of the Singapore facility as well as the operations in Shanghai, China. The recent investments in Spain and Italy are already starting to bear fruit. In addition to the ongoing expansion of the warehousing facility in Northern Ireland, new warehousing in Holland and a TR Innovation & Technical Centre in Sweden are also planned. The company continues to invest in its US team to support future growth in this still relatively nascent territory for Trifast.

We believe Trifast continues to seek M&A opportunities at appropriate returns and management has become increasingly proactive in identifying potential targets.

Outlook

We have again increased our expectations for FY18, reflecting the strength of the H1 improvement. We are now looking for 6% top-line growth at actual exchange rates compared to 3% previously, but continue to anticipate a squeeze on gross margins in H218 as UK input cost increases are absorbed, and the offset from FX gains on distributor sales from the UK that helped in the first half diminishes.

We now forecast 4% improvement in profit before tax for FY18 compared to the marginal increase previously, with further modest progress anticipated in FY19. We continue to believe that a cautious stance is warranted by the uncertainties that Brexit negotiations, global trade policies, FX rates and geopolitics continue to cause. We have reduced our underlying tax rate expectation to 23.5% from 25.0% previously, reflecting H1 performance, which results in a 5% upgrade in FY18e fully diluted EPS expectations to 13.19p.

We estimate year-end net debt at just over £5m which, together with the existing financing facilities, provides a sound financial platform for any appropriate deals that may appear. We expect the investment strategy to continue to deliver consistent earnings growth in the absence of any adverse macro developments.

Exhibit 2: Trifast earnings revisions

£m

2018e

2019e

 

Prior

New

% change

Prior

New

% change

UK

68.0

69.2

1.8%

69.3

70.5

1.8%

Europe

68.7

71.3

3.7%

70.1

72.7

3.7%

USA

6.5

6.5

0.0%

7.1

7.1

0.0%

Asia

48.9

52.1

6.7%

51.3

54.7

6.7%

Total group sales

192.0

199.1

3.7%

197.9

205.1

3.7%

EBITDA

22.9

23.5

2.2%

24.0

24.1

0.3%

UK

6.1

8.1

32.9%

6.4

7.8

21.7%

Europe

9.6

7.8

-19.2%

9.8

8.0

-18.5%

USA

0.5

0.3

-28.6%

0.6

0.6

0.0%

Asia

8.6

9.1

6.7%

9.0

9.6

6.7%

HQ Other and intersegment

-3.7

-3.7

0.0%

-3.7

-3.7

0.0%

EBIT (Pre PPA amortisation)

21.0

21.6

2.8%

22.0

22.2

0.8%

Underlying PBT

20.7

21.3

2.9%

21.7

21.9

0.7%

EPS - underlying continuing fully diluted (p)

12.56

13.19

4.9%

13.15

13.51

2.8%

DPS (p)

3.65

3.65

0.0%

3.80

3.80

0.0%

Net cash/(debt)

(4.9)

(5.1)

4.1%

1.0

0.1

n.m.

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

161,370

186,512

199,061

205,126

Cost of Sales

(113,366)

(128,495)

(138,746)

(142,973)

Gross Profit

48,004

58,017

60,316

62,153

EBITDA

 

 

18,150

22,868

23,456

24,075

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

16,793

21,018

21,644

22,208

Intangible Amortisation

(974)

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(264)

(1,645)

(1,123)

(1.123)

Other

(1,687)

(1,512)

(2,200)

(2,200)

Operating Profit

13,868

17,861

18,321

20,229

Net Interest

(791)

(521)

(367)

(318)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

16,002

20,497

21,277

21,891

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

13,077

17,340

17,954

18,568

Tax

(3,984)

(4,835)

(5,000)

(5,144)

Profit After Tax (norm)

12,018

15,662

16,277

16,746

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

10,225

12,698

13,735

14,204

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

116.4

118.5

119.8

120.3

EPS - (p)

 

 

10.33

13.22

13.59

13.92

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

9.99

12.82

13.19

13.51

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

8.79

10.72

11.47

11.81

Dividend per share (p)

2.80

3.50

3.65

3.80

Gross Margin (%)

29.7

31.1

30.3

30.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.2

12.3

11.8

11.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

10.4

11.3

10.9

10.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

55,430

58,940

59,589

60,291

Intangible Assets

38,259

39,682

38,559

37,436

Tangible Assets

17,171

19,258

21,030

22,855

Investments

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

102,603

118,290

124,585

129,393

Stocks

39,438

41,926

45,227

46,605

Debtors

43,386

49,360

52,154

55,384

Cash

17,614

24,645

24,645

24,645

Other

2,165

2,359

2,559

2,759

Current Liabilities

 

 

(52,813)

(54,564)

(51,765)

(44,724)

Creditors

(35,879)

(39,692)

(39,893)

(38,852)

Short term borrowings

(16,934)

(14,872)

(11,872)

(5,872)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(21,470)

(20,968)

(22,748)

(23,468)

Long term borrowings

(16,675)

(16,221)

(17,922)

(18,643)

Other long term liabilities

(4,795)

(4,747)

(4,825)

(4,825)

Net Assets

 

 

83,750

101,698

109,661

121,491

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

15,873

22,887

17,894

18,847

Net Interest

(804)

(521)

(367)

(318)

Tax

(3,080)

(5,136)

(5,000)

(5,144)

Capex

(2,323)

(2,948)

(3,583)

(3,692)

Acquisitions/disposals

(7,684)

(1,471)

0

0

Financing

(2,122)

46

(3,500)

0

Dividends

(2,440)

(3,310)

(4,145)

(4,413)

Net Cash Flow

(2,580)

9,547

1,299

5,279

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

13,415

15,995

6,448

5,149

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

15,995

6,448

5,149

(130)

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Trifast and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investments Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (ACH 161 453 872) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Investment Companies

All for One Steeb — SAP generation upgrade provides opportunity

All for One Steeb is the largest supplier of SAP solutions for the German-speaking mid-market. The generational upgrade of SAP products from R/3 to S/4HANA should provide significant growth opportunities in the short to mid-term, but will require continued investment in staff and R&D to maximise monetisation. Management has recently upgraded guidance, and the shares currently trade at a discount to peers.

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