Care REIT — Strong Q324 and accretive growth

Care REIT (LSE: CRT)

Last close As at 22/11/2024

GBP0.84

0.70 (0.84%)

Market capitalisation

GBP349m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Care REIT — Strong Q324 and accretive growth

Care REIT (Care), formerly Impact Healthcare REIT, and its tenants continued to perform strongly in Q324. The quarterly EPRA net tangible assets (NTA) return of 2.1% took the year-to-date total to 7.8%, while rent cover increased to 2.3x. Care is well on track to meet its FY24 DPS target of 6.95p (+2.7%), fully covered by adjusted ‘cash’ earnings, with a yield of 8.3%. The company has also announced two new investments, including forward funding the development of a new, high-quality home, at an accretive blended yield in excess of 8% with strong valuation potential.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Care REIT

Strong Q324 and accretive growth

Q324 NAV update and acquisitions

Real estate

25 November 2024

Price

84p

Market cap

£348m

Gross debt at 30 September 2024

£189m

EPRA LTV at 30 September 2024

27.5%

Shares in issue

414.4m

Free float

91%

Code

CRT

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.5)

(5.6)

0.1

Rel (local)

(2.8)

(5.0)

(9.6)

52-week high/low

93p

79p

Business description

Care REIT (formerly Impact Healthcare REIT) trades on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. It invests in a diversified portfolio of UK healthcare assets, primarily residential and nursing care homes, let on long leases to high-quality operators. It aims to provide shareholders with attractive and sustainable returns, primarily in the form of dividends, underpinned by structural growth in demand for care.

Next event

Q424 update

Expected January 2025

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Care REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Care REIT (Care), formerly Impact Healthcare REIT, and its tenants continued to perform strongly in Q324. The quarterly EPRA net tangible assets (NTA) return of 2.1% took the year-to-date total to 7.8%, while rent cover increased to 2.3x. Care is well on track to meet its FY24 DPS target of 6.95p (+2.7%), fully covered by adjusted ‘cash’ earnings, with a yield of 8.3%. The company has also announced two new investments, including forward funding the development of a new, high-quality home, at an accretive blended yield in excess of 8% with strong valuation potential.

Year end

Net rental
income (£m)

EPRA earnings* (£m)

EPRA
EPS* (p)

EPRA NTA/
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV
(x)**

Yield
(%)**

12/23

53.1

34.5

8.3

115.0

0.73

8.1

0.73

12/24e

54.9

35.8

8.6

119.9

0.70

8.3

0.70

12/25e

58.4

38.7

9.3

123.8

0.68

8.6

0.68

12/26e

61.7

41.8

10.1

127.9

0.66

8.9

0.66

Note: *EPRA earnings exclude fair value movements on properties and interest rate derivatives. **P/NAV and yield are based on the current share price.

Strong financial and operational performance

Q324 NTA total return of 2.1% (2.0% on an IFRS basis) comprised a 0.6% increase in NTA per share to 118.7p and dividends paid of 1.7375p. FY24 is well on track to be another strong year of returns (FY23: 10.5%), building on a consistently positive performance since listing in 2017, even through the COVID-19 pandemic. The drivers of performance, income and dividends as well as NAV growth, continue to be indexed to rent uplifts and accretive asset management, while 93% of borrowing costs are fixed or hedged. Tenant performance is benefiting from good levels of home occupancy and strong fee growth. The transfer of all seven of the turnaround homes to experienced, long-term operators will provide a significant uplift to cash rental income, the basis for dividend decisions.

Acquisitions are accretive and portfolio enhancing

Care operates in a structurally supported market, where care demand is driven by the demographics of a growing elderly population. It addresses this market broadly, by acquiring homes at low capital values, generally well below replacement value, which can be let at affordable rents, while still generating an attractive yield. Asset management, to enhance the quality of the assets, provides additional opportunities to increase rents and create value, with Care successfully targeting a cash yield of at least 8% (with additional potential for capital gain). This sets a high benchmark for alternative capital allocation, which the two new investments meet. They are accretive to earnings and the new development in particular enhances the overall quality and sustainability of the portfolio. With a yield on investment at well above the portfolio average of 6.95% there is a strong potential for capital growth at completion, which we expect by the end of 2025.

Valuation: Income-driven, long-term returns

The FY24 DPS target represents an attractive yield of 8.3%, which we expect to again be fully covered by adjusted ‘cash’ earnings. Meanwhile, the shares trade at a c 30% discount to Q324 NAV per share.

Additional details on financial performance and returns

Rental growth continues to drive performance. Reviews completed in Q324 were at a blended uplift of 3.6%, adding c £0.2m to contracted rent roll, offset by the disposal of non-core assets. In July, Care exchanged contracts to sell five non-core properties for a combined £8.8m, in line with valuation. The sale of two of these completed in Q3 for £4.5m, following CQC re-registration, and we expect the sale of the remaining three properties, for £4.3m, to complete in Q125.

The portfolio value increased by 1% in the quarter as a result of the rental uplifts and a slight tightening in the EPRA topped up net initial yield to 6.95% from 6.98% in Q2.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly movement in NAV/NTA

Pence per share

EPRA NTA

IFRS NAV

Opening value

118.0

118.3

Revaluation gains on investment properties

0.2

0.2

Revaluation loss on interest rate cap

(0.1)

Net remaining contribution to reserves

2.4

2.4

Q224 dividend paid

(1.7)

(1.7)

Closing value

118.7

118.9

Percentage quarterly change

0.6%

0.5%

Source: Care REIT data, Edison Investment Research

The positive valuation performance has driven positive total accounting returns in each quarter year to date, representing an aggregate nine-month EPRA NTA/accounting return of 7.8%. On an annualised basis, the FY24 return is close to matching the strong level of FY23.

Exhibit 2: Quarterly EPRA NTA total return

Pence per share

Q124

Q224

Q324

9M24

Opening NAV

115.0

116.9

118.0

115.0

Closing NAV

116.9

118.0

118.7

118.7

Dividends paid

1.69

1.74

1.74

5.17

EPRA NTA total return

3.2%

2.4%

2.1%

7.8%

Of which dividends paid

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

4.5%

Of which change in NAV

1.7%

0.9%

0.5%

3.3%

Source: Care REIT data, Edison Investment Research

The year-to-date EPRA NTA total return continues a strong track record since Care listed in March 2017, with an average of 7.1% pa. Even in 2022, the worst year for commercial real estate valuations in over a decade, Care’s robust cash flows enabled the company to report a dividend-driven total return of 3.7%. Since listing, progressive dividends have generated 70% of returns.

Exhibit 3: Consistently attractive EPRA NTA total returns

Pence per share

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

9M24

FY17–9M24

Opening NAV

97.9

100.6

102.9

106.8

109.6

112.4

110.1

115.0

97.9

Closing NAV

100.6

102.9

106.8

109.6

112.4

110.1

115.0

118.7

118.7

Dividends paid

3.0

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.7

5.2

46.2

Dividend return

3.1%

6.0%

6.0%

5.9%

5.8%

5.8%

6.1%

4.5%

47.1%

Capital return

2.8%

2.3%

3.7%

2.6%

2.6%

-2.1%

4.4%

3.3%

21.3%

Total return

5.9%

8.2%

9.7%

8.5%

8.4%

3.7%

10.5%

7.8%

68.4%

Average annual return

7.1%

Source: Care REIT data, Edison Investment Research

Dividend distributions are based on adjusted ‘cash’ earnings which excludes the positive impact of non-cash IFRS rent smoothing. Dividends have been fully covered by EPRA earnings, which includes rent smoothing, in each year since listing and, as cash rents have continued to increase, have been well covered on an adjusted ‘cash’ basis. We expect this to continue.

Exhibit 4: Progressive dividends and cash cover

Source: Care REIT data, Edison Investment Research. Note: For 2024, Care REIT targets 6.95p in aggregate earnings and has already paid three quarterly dividends of 1.7375p each.

Acquisitions are accretive and enhance the portfolio

The two homes invested in since Q324 are both let to Prestige. Prestige is an existing tenant of the group and already operates five of the group’s homes.

At Bedale, in North Yorkshire, Prestige is developing a new, high-quality, 72-bed home that will be a fully electric property and is expected to have an EPC rating of A. Prestige has contracted to lease and operate the home at completion on a 35-year indexed lease. Care will forward fund the development, which at completion will be delivered by Prestige at a maximum cost of £8.7m or an attractive £121k per bed.

Care will also acquire from Prestige, in a sale and leaseback transaction, Middleton Manor, near Darlington. The home has 83 beds, all with en-suite bathrooms, and an EPC rating of B. The lease term is 35 years. Of the up to £5.9m consideration, £2.1m is deferred, contingent on the future performance of the home. If made, the deferred payment will be reflected in additional rental income.

Care says that on a blended basis the properties are being acquired at a yield in excess of 8% which it expects to be both income and capital accretive. Although Care has not broken down the yield by asset, given its 8% hurdle rate on new investments, we do think there is a material yield difference between the two, which compares with the current portfolio EPRA topped up initial yield of 6.95%. Valuing the Bedale development in line with the portfolio average indicates capital upside of well above 10% on completion.

The consideration for Middleton Manor and initial outlay for Bedale can be substantially funded from existing cash resources, including the £8.8m proceeds from the sale of non-core assets, as well as available revolving credit facilities. Even if fully debt funded, there is a healthy yield spread over the marginal cost new variable borrowings, and rents will increase with indexation. Care’s marginal borrowing cost is currently 6.75% pa (SONIA plus a margin of 2%) but based on market expectations this should decline. The five year SONIA swap rate is c 4%.

Care highlights the similarities between the announced transactions and those previously undertaken with Prestige. In 2019, Care acquired Yew Tree Care Centre in Redcar for £2.8m and subsequently contracted to forward fund the development of Merlin Manor, a new £6.1m 94-bed care home in Hartlepool, both let to Prestige. Merlin Manor was Care’s first forward-funded development, enabling it to bring new, high-quality and affordable care accommodation to the market while also generating attractive financial returns. The IRR on the Merlin Manor investment life-to-date is above 20%. Working closely with Prestige, a substantial asset management initiative at Yew Tree was recently completed. At a cost of £2.5m, monetised in line with Care’s minimum cash target return on investment of at least 8%, a new 25-bed dementia unit has increased the overall number of beds to 101.

Moderate gearing and mostly fixed borrowing costs

Drawn debt was £189m at end-Q324, out of committed facilities of £250m, with 93% of the costs fixed or hedged, at an average 4.6%. There is no debt maturity until 2026 (a £75m revolving credit facility), although a £50m interest rate cap (at 4%) expires in January 2025, for which Care is reviewing options, which are likely to include increasing the share of longer-term fixed rate funding. Meanwhile, with interest rates forecast to fall further, we do not expect any significant impact on earnings, which will in any case continue to benefit from rental uplifts.

Exhibit 5: Summary of debt portfolio

Clydesdale

HSBC

NatWest

Total bank debt

Private placements

Facility type

RCF

RCF

RCF

Fixed rate

Facility size

£50m

£75m

£50m

£175m

£75m

Expiry

Dec-29

Apr-26

Jun-28

2035

Margin

2.0% plus SONIA

2.0% plus SONIA

2.0% plus SONIA

Fixed 2.97%

Source: Care REIT

Forecasts and valuation

The Q324 update is consistent with our full-year forecasts and the announced transactions have a modest positive impact on FY26 as the newly completed development contributes for a full year.

Most importantly, we expect further growth in full cash-covered DPS and in EPRA NTA per share. EPRA NTA growth reflects the positive impact of rental growth on property valuations with an unchanged yield. With interest rates expected to decline further, in combination with high average tenant profitability and affordable rents, there appears material scope for the portfolio yield to tighten from the current 6.95% and for property values to increase by more than we forecast.

Exhibit 6: Forecast summary

Current forecast

Previous forecast

Forecast change

£m unless stated otherwise

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY24

FY25

FY26

Cash net rental income*

47.3

50.2

53.4

47.0

49.8

52.5

0.2

0.4

0.8

Net finance costs

(9.1)

(10.8)

(10.9)

(8.9)

(10.0)

(10.5)

(0.2)

(0.8)

(0.4)

Administrative costs

(7.5)

(7.7)

(8.0)

(7.5)

(7.7)

(8.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Adjusted earnings

30.7

31.6

34.4

30.7

32.1

34.0

(0.0)

(0.4)

0.4

IFRS adjustments

7.6

8.2

8.4

7.7

8.2

8.2

(0.0)

0.0

0.2

Loan fee amortisation

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Interest received on rate cap

(1.6)

(0.2)

0.0

(1.6)

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EPRA earnings

35.8

38.7

41.8

35.8

39.2

41.2

(0.0)

(0.4)

0.6

EPRA EPS (p)

8.6

9.3

10.1

8.6

9.4

10.0

0.0

(0.1)

0.1

Adjusted EPS (p)

7.4

7.6

8.3

7.4

7.7

8.2

(0.0)

(0.1)

0.1

DPS declared (p)

6.95

7.20

7.50

6.95

7.20

7.50

0.0

0.0

0.0

EPRA DPS cover

124%

130%

135%

124%

131%

133%

Adjusted DPS cover

107%

106%

111%

107%

108%

109%

EPRA NTA per share (‘NAV’)

119.9

123.8

127.9

119.9

123.9

127.9

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.0)

NAV total return

10.0%

9.1%

9.3%

10.0%

9.2%

9.3%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation continues to trail financial returns

For FY24, Care is targeting a DPS of 6.95p (+2.7%), fully covered by adjusted ‘cash’ earnings. This represents an attractive yield of more than 8%. Meanwhile, the shares trade at a c 30% discount to Q324 EPRA NTA per share of 118.7p. Given the prospects for continuing growth in fully covered dividends, the relatively high yield on assets combined with the likelihood of further interest rate declines and the potential for capital gains, this appears a very undemanding valuation.

Exhibit 7: Dividend yield since listing

Exhibit 8: P/NAV since listing (x)

Source: Company DPS data, LSEG Data & Analytics prices

Source: Company NAV data, LSEG Data & Analytics prices

Exhibit 7: Dividend yield since listing

Source: Company DPS data, LSEG Data & Analytics prices

Exhibit 8: P/NAV since listing (x)

Source: Company NAV data, LSEG Data & Analytics prices

Exhibit 9 shows a summary of the performance and valuation of a group of real estate investment trusts (REITs) that we consider to be Care’s closest peers within the broad and diverse commercial property sector. The group is invested in the primary healthcare, supported housing and care home sectors, all targeting stable, long-term income growth derived from long lease exposures. For consistency, NAV and DPS data are presented on a trailing basis and do not fully reflect DPS targets. Over the past three years, in terms of share price performance, the group has slightly outperformed the broader property sector but has materially underperformed the UK equity market.

Exhibit 9: Peer group comparison

WAULT*
(years)

Price
(p)

Market cap
(£m)

P/NTA**
(x)

Yield***
(%)

Share price performance

One month

Three months

One year

Three years

Assura

13

38

1243

0.77

8.7

-7%

-9%

-16%

-46%

Primary Health Properties

10

93

1245

0.89

7.4

-6%

-3%

-6%

-39%

Target Healthcare****

26

84

520

0.75

6.9

-6%

1%

-2%

-31%

Triple Point Social Housing

24

62

244

0.55

8.8

-1%

-1%

-2%

-34%

Average

18

0.76

7.8

-3%

1%

1%

-36%

Care REIT

21

82

340

0.70

8.4

-7%

-8%

-4%

-31%

UK property index

1,223

-10%

-10%

-6%

-38%

UK All-Share Index

4,431

-3%

-3%

8%

7%

Source: Historical company data, LSEG Data & Analytics. Note: *Weighted average unexpired lease term. **Based on last published EPRA NTA/NAV per share. ***Based on trailing 12-month DPS declared (except for Target). ****Based on the H223 target yield, annualised. LSEG Data & Analytics price data at 20 November 2024.

Exhibit 10: Financial summary

Year to 31 December (£m)

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

2026e

Cash rental income*

39.1

46.2

47.3

50.2

53.4

IFRS adjustments for guaranteed uplifts and lease incentives

6.4

7.1

7.6

8.2

8.4

Gross rental income

45.4

53.4

54.9

58.4

61.7

Net other income/(expense)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Bad debt charge

0.0

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net rental income

45.4

53.1

54.9

58.4

61.7

Administrative & other expenses

(7.0)

(7.1)

(7.5)

(7.7)

(8.0)

Realised gain on disposal

0.1

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating profit before change in fair value of investment properties

38.6

46.0

47.4

50.7

53.7

Unrealised change in fair value of investment properties

(16.3)

14.8

11.8

6.8

6.1

Net finance cost

(5.4)

(11.9)

(11.4)

(12.2)

(11.9)

Profit before taxation

16.9

48.8

47.8

45.3

47.9

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit for the year (IFRS)

16.9

48.8

47.8

45.3

47.9

Adjust for:

Realised and unrealised gain/(loss) on investment properties

16.1

(14.8)

(11.8)

(6.8)

(6.1)

Change in fair value of interest rate derivatives

(0.4)

0.5

(0.3)

0.2

0.0

EPRA earnings

32.6

34.5

35.8

38.7

41.8

Rental income arising from recognising rental premiums & fixed rent uplifts

(6.5)

(7.3)

(7.7)

(8.2)

(8.4)

Amortisation of loan arrangement fees

1.2

1.4

1.0

1.0

1.0

Interest received on rate cap

0.1

1.4

1.6

0.2

0.0

Other adjustments

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

Adjusted earnings

27.7

30.2

30.7

31.6

34.4

Average number of shares in issue (m)

390.1

414.2

414.4

414.4

414.4

Basic & diluted IFRS EPS (p)

4.33

11.79

11.53

10.93

11.57

EPRA EPS (p)

8.37

8.33

8.63

9.35

10.10

Adjusted EPS (p)

7.11

7.28

7.40

7.64

8.30

Dividend per share (declared) (p)

6.54

6.77

6.95

7.20

7.50

EPRA earnings dividend cover

128%

123%

124%

130%

135%

Adjusted earnings dividend cover

109%

108%

107%

106%

111%

NAV total return

3.8%

10.8%

10.0%

9.1%

9.3%

EPRA cost ratio

16.6%

14.4%

13.6%

13.3%

13.0%

BALANCE SHEET

Investment properties

504.3

616.0

645.7

664.9

683.0

Other non-current assets

68.1

41.0

47.1

54.9

63.3

Non-current assets

572.4

657.0

692.7

719.8

746.3

Cash and equivalents

22.5

9.4

10.7

10.7

9.8

Other current assets

1.5

0.9

0.5

0.5

0.5

Current assets

24.1

10.3

11.1

11.2

10.3

Borrowings

(122.4)

(179.9)

(195.9)

(206.9)

(214.8)

Other non-current liabilities

(4.3)

(2.3)

(2.3)

(2.3)

(2.3)

Non-current liabilities

(126.7)

(182.3)

(198.2)

(209.1)

(217.1)

Borrowings

(14.8)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other current liabilities

(9.1)

(6.9)

(8.4)

(8.9)

(9.4)

Current Liabilities

(23.9)

(6.9)

(8.4)

(8.9)

(9.4)

Net assets

445.9

478.1

497.3

513.0

530.1

Adjust for derivative financial liability/(asset)

(0.4)

(1.8)

(0.4)

(0.0)

(0.0)

EPRA net tangible assets (NTA)

445.6

476.4

496.9

513.0

530.1

Period end shares (m)

404.8

414.4

414.4

414.4

414.4

IFRS NAV per ordinary share

110.2

115.4

120.0

123.8

127.9

EPRA net tangible assets (NTA) per share

110.1

115.0

119.9

123.8

127.9

CASH FLOW

Net cash flow from operating activities

29.5

33.4

43.0

42.9

45.8

Purchase of investment properties (including acquisition costs)

(71.9)

(46.6)

(9.7)

(2.8)

0.0

Capital improvements

(11.2)

(3.4)

(13.5)

(14.0)

(12.0)

Other cash flow from investing activities

5.4

3.3

4.6

4.3

0.0

Net cash flow from investing activities

(77.7)

(46.6)

(18.7)

(12.5)

(12.0)

Issue of ordinary share capital (net of expenses)

60.5

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

(Repayment)/drawdown of loans

27.7

42.5

15.0

10.0

7.0

Dividends paid

(25.7)

(27.8)

(28.6)

(29.6)

(30.8)

Other cash flow from financing activities

(5.1)

(14.5)

(9.3796)

(10.8)

(10.9)

Net cash flow from financing activities

57.4

0.1

(23.0)

(30.4)

(34.7)

Net change in cash and equivalents

9.3

(13.1)

1.3

0.0

(0.9)

Opening cash and equivalents

13.3

22.5

9.4

10.7

10.7

Closing cash and equivalents

22.5

9.4

10.7

10.7

9.8

Balance sheet debt

(137.2)

(179.9)

(195.9)

(206.9)

(214.8)

Unamortised loan arrangement costs

(5.1)

(4.8)

(3.9)

(2.9)

(1.9)

Net cash/(debt)

(119.7)

(175.4)

(189.1)

(199.1)

(206.9)

Gross LTV (net debt as % gross assets)

23.8%

27.7%

28.4%

28.7%

28.6%

Source: Care REIT historical data, Edison Investment Research forecasts

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Care REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Care REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Care REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Care REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H125 trading update suggests the company enjoyed a strong Q225 in both its core business (due to the launch of the fourth edition of Age of Sigmar midway through Q125) and licensing (due to the success of the Space Marine 2 video game). These are impressive in the context of the tough comparative from the prior year’s launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40K (40K) and the currency headwinds in the early part of H125. We upgrade our profit estimates for FY25 (by 7%) and FY26 (by 3%) to reflect the outperformance versus our prior expectations.

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