Treatt — Strong start

Treatt (LSE: TET)

Last close As at 22/11/2024

420.00

2.00 (0.48%)

Market capitalisation

257m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Treatt — Strong start

As has become customary, Treatt has once again made a good start to the financial year and grown across multiple categories. This year’s adjusted PBT is likely to revert to a more normal H1/H2 weighting, as previously indicated by the company. This comes against a backdrop of an unusually strong H1 in the prior year. The move to the UK headquarters is progressing as planned. We leave our estimates unchanged at this early stage in the year, but note the board’s confident outlook.

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Written by

Consumer

Treatt

Strong start

AGM statement

Food & beverages

28 January 2022

Price

1,100p

Market cap

£661m

Net debt (£m) at 30 September 2021

9.1

Shares in issue

60.4m

Free float

100%

Code

TET

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(9.4)

(0.5)

22.0

Rel (local)

(10.2)

(2.6)

7.2

52-week high/low

1,315p

880p

Business description

Treatt provides innovative ingredient solutions from its manufacturing bases in Europe and North America, principally for the flavours and fragrance industries and multinational consumer goods companies, with particular emphasis on the beverage sector.

Next events

H122 results

10 May 2022

FY22 results

29 November 2022

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

As has become customary, Treatt has once again made a good start to the financial year and grown across multiple categories. This year’s adjusted PBT is likely to revert to a more normal H1/H2 weighting, as previously indicated by the company. This comes against a backdrop of an unusually strong H1 in the prior year. The move to the UK headquarters is progressing as planned. We leave our estimates unchanged at this early stage in the year, but note the board’s confident outlook.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/20

109.0

15.8

21.3

6.0

51.6

0.5

09/21

124.3

22.7

30.1

7.5

36.6

0.7

09/22e

131.8

24.1

32.2

8.0

34.1

0.7

09/23e

139.7

26.0

34.3

8.5

32.1

0.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong demand

The demand for flavour ingredients is strong, and the pandemic has resulted in consumers increasingly focusing on health and wellbeing, thus demanding authentic flavours with clean labels. The beverages market has been witnessing a switch from the on-trade to the off-trade channel as restrictions were imposed globally, with a recovery in the on-trade as restrictions were eased. This dynamic has been repeated in several markets as restrictions were reimposed and lifted again, but for the flavour industry the more important metric is overall volume consumed, and Treatt has witnessed an overall increase in demand for its products.

An expert partner

Treatt’s technical expertise is being applied across a growing range of applications, which is leading to both revenue growth and margin expansion. Its portfolio is well-suited for the consumer trends of clean labels and more natural, better-for-you products. Its synthetic aroma business is also growing as demand for sustainable synthetic products is increasing. Treatt has transformed itself from a commodity-based ingredients provider to a trusted and expert partner able to deliver technically complex ingredient solutions.

Valuation: Trading at a premium to peers

We note that the current share price is discounting medium-term sales growth of 4.0%, falling to 2.5% in perpetuity, with a WACC of 5.7% and a terminal EBIT margin of 20.0% (versus 17.2% in FY21). Our earnings estimates remain unchanged following the announcement. Treatt trades at 34.1x FY22e P/E and 22.8x FY22e EV/EBITDA. On both P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, it trades at a c 20% premium to its peer group, although it trades in line with peers if we exclude those that are more exposed to lower-margin commoditised products.

Valuation

We illustrate Treatt’s relative valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit 1 below. For 2022, Treatt trades at a c 20% premium to its peer group on both a P/E and EV/EBITDA basis, although we note Kerry and Ingredion have a larger proportion of lower-margin products in their portfolios. If we exclude Kerry and Ingredion, Treatt is trading broadly in line with the remaining peers on both P/E and EV/EBITDA. Although it is smaller than its peers, its portfolio of products is increasingly specialised and the company has demonstrated its resilience with a robust performance despite the pandemic.

Exhibit 1: Comparative valuation

Market cap
(m)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

2021e

2022e

2021e

2022e

2021e

2022e

Givaudan

CHF 37,781

39.9

37.3

27.5

26.3

1.7

1.7

IFF

$33,913

23.8

21.9

18.5

16.5

2.3

2.4

Symrise

CHF 15,256

38.5

35.7

20.5

19.3

1.0

1.1

Chr Hansen

DKK 67,299

42.4

37.8

25.3

23.1

2.0

1.7

Kerry

€ 19,632

29.1

26.5

20.0

18.7

0.9

0.9

Ingredion

$6,265

13.7

12.7

8.5

8.0

3.1

2.8

Peer group average

31.2

28.6

20.0

18.7

1.8

1.8

Treatt

£661.4

36.6

34.1

26.6

22.8

0.7

0.7

Premium/(discount) to peer group (%)

17.0%

19.2%

32.5%

22.1%

(62.4%)

(59.0%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as of 26 January 2022.


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£000's

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

2024e

Year end September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

112,163

112,717

109,016

124,326

131,786

139,693

148,074

Cost of Sales

(84,407)

(84,060)

(77,140)

(82,103)

(86,897)

(91,692)

(96,749)

Gross Profit

27,756

28,657

31,876

42,223

44,888

48,001

51,325

EBITDA

 

 

16,627

15,785

17,862

24,877

29,007

30,951

32,984

Operating Profit (before amort., except and sbp.)

 

 

15,108

14,226

16,053

23,172

24,093

25,954

27,955

Intangible Amortisation

(124)

(90)

(75)

(93)

(79)

(67)

(57)

Share based payments

(1,040)

(637)

(886)

(1,733)

(1,981)

(2,112)

(2,253)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

13,944

13,499

15,092

21,346

22,034

23,775

25,646

Net Interest

(1,302)

(199)

(291)

(427)

(18)

40

92

Exceptionals

(1,105)

(755)

(1,060)

(1,302)

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

13,806

14,027

15,762

22,745

24,076

25,994

28,047

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

11,537

12,545

13,741

19,617

22,016

23,815

25,738

Profit Before Tax (company)

 

 

12,642

13,300

14,801

20,919

22,016

23,815

25,738

Tax

(2,284)

(2,673)

(2,896)

(4,469)

(4,703)

(5,358)

(6,048)

Profit After Tax (norm)

11,392

11,263

12,762

18,090

19,372

20,635

21,999

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

9,253

9,872

10,845

15,148

17,313

18,457

19,689

Discontinued operations

2,976

(1,084)

0

0

0

0

0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

56.8

59.1

59.8

60.1

60.1

60.1

60.1

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

20.1

19.0

21.3

30.1

32.2

34.3

36.6

EPS - adjusted (p)

 

 

18.0

17.8

19.7

27.1

28.8

30.7

32.7

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

16.3

16.7

18.1

25.2

28.8

30.7

32.7

Dividend per share (p)

5.1

5.5

6.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.1

Gross Margin (%)

24.7

25.4

29.2

34.0

34.1

34.4

34.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

14.8

14.0

16.4

20.0

22.0

22.2

22.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

13.5

12.6

14.7

18.6

18.3

18.6

18.9

Operating Margin (%)

12.4

12.0

13.8

17.2

16.7

17.0

17.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

21,863

31,730

54,048

65,811

64,740

66,770

68,905

Intangible Assets

752

845

1,358

2,424

2,345

2,278

2,221

Tangible Assets

20,038

29,485

50,159

61,039

61,603

63,700

65,892

Investments

1,073

1,400

2,531

2,348

792

792

792

Current Assets

 

 

102,401

98,158

69,472

83,606

84,917

95,951

111,125

Stocks

39,642

36,799

36,050

47,263

49,835

52,546

55,403

Debtors

28,828

23,020

24,167

26,371

27,821

29,351

30,964

Cash

32,304

37,187

7,739

7,260

7,260

14,054

24,759

Other

1,627

1,152

1,516

2,712

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(35,781)

(28,905)

(15,989)

(30,460)

(22,794)

(21,157)

(21,642)

Creditors

(16,479)

(11,784)

(12,640)

(17,620)

(20,517)

(21,014)

(21,499)

Short term borrowings

(19,244)

(16,860)

(3,203)

(12,697)

(2,134)

0

0

Provisions

(58)

(261)

(146)

(143)

(143)

(143)

(143)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(6,858)

(13,876)

(16,411)

(11,605)

(11,048)

(9,981)

(9,981)

Long term borrowings

(3,001)

(4,369)

(3,450)

(2,624)

(1,067)

0

0

Other long-term liabilities

(3,857)

(9,507)

(12,961)

(8,981)

(9,981)

(9,981)

(9,981)

Net Assets

 

 

81,625

87,107

91,120

107,352

115,815

131,583

148,407

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

3,580

20,544

15,677

13,892

27,881

27,208

29,000

Net Interest

(609)

(199)

(191)

(270)

(18)

40

92

Tax

(2,978)

(2,208)

(2,191)

(4,874)

(4,703)

(5,358)

(6,048)

Capex

(6,190)

(10,392)

(23,909)

(13,195)

(5,477)

(7,095)

(7,221)

Acquisitions/disposals

8,357

855

(1,041)

(1,178)

0

0

0

Financing

21,090

622

(69)

(212)

0

0

0

Dividends

(2,876)

(3,080)

(3,378)

(3,704)

(4,509)

(4,800)

(5,117)

Net Cash Flow

20,374

6,142

(15,102)

(9,541)

13,174

9,994

10,705

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

10,225

(10,059)

(15,958)

(427)

9,114

(4,060)

(14,054)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(90)

(243)

(429)

(0)

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,059)

(15,958)

(427)

9,114

(4,060)

(14,054)

(24,759)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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