S Immo — Successfully exploiting property market cycles

S Immo (AV: SPI)

Last close As at 04/11/2024

15.14

−0.08 (−0.53%)

Market capitalisation

EUR1,114m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

S Immo — Successfully exploiting property market cycles

S Immo has a track record of cleverly anticipating regional/sectoral real estate cycles in Europe. This includes the expansion into CEE in the early 2000s, later investments in the German residential and office markets and subsequent diversification outside of Berlin. Its active approach has allowed the company to post five- and 10-year EPRA NAV total returns (TR) to end-2019 of c 23% and 14% pa, respectively. Its current focus is on secondary German residential and office markets (eg Erfurt) and selective CEE investments. In the longer term, it plans to pursue development projects using its extensive landbank in the Berlin commuter belt.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Head of Content, Investment Trusts

Real Estate

S Immo

Successfully exploiting property market cycles

Real estate

Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum 2020

14 October 2020

Price

€15.2

Market cap

€1,117m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

SPI

Shares in issue

73.6m

Net debt at 30 June 2020

€1.29bn

Business description

S Immo is a real estate investment company, with headquarters in Vienna; it invests in Austria, Germany and selected CEE/SEE markets. At end-June 2020, it held properties with a book value of around €2.4bn, including office (42%), residential (30%), retail (19%) and hotel properties (9%).

Bull

Solid track record as illustrated by NAV total return.

Extensive management experience in leveraging property cycles.

Moderate LTV and good liquidity.

Bear

Impact from COVID-19, in particular on hotel and retail properties.

Risk of decline in property valuations and rental income amid a recession.

Rental cap in Berlin from 2020 and possibly also in other German cities in the future.

Analyst

Milosz Papst

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

S Immo is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

S Immo has a track record of cleverly anticipating regional/sectoral real estate cycles in Europe. This includes the expansion into CEE in the early 2000s, later investments in the German residential and office markets and subsequent diversification outside of Berlin. Its active approach has allowed the company to post five- and 10-year EPRA NAV total returns (TR) to end-2019 of c 23% and 14% pa, respectively. Its current focus is on secondary German residential and office markets (eg Erfurt) and selective CEE investments. In the longer term, it plans to pursue development projects using its extensive landbank in the Berlin commuter belt.

EPRA NAV down c 10% in H120 due to listed holdings

S Immo reported an EPRA NAV of €23.78 per share at end June 2020 vs €26.45 at end 2019, with the decline largely attributable to the lower share prices of its minority stakes in IMMOFINANZ and CA Immo (down 36% and 21% in H120, respectively, despite broadly stable EPRA NAV). S Immo’s portfolio saw a varying degree of impact from the COVID-19 crisis in H120, with hotel operations (including also its two owner-operated Marriott hotels) facing the greatest headwinds alongside retail properties. Conversely, residential and office properties remained largely unaffected and were even subject to positive revaluations of €19.5m and €12.0m in H120, respectively (driven by yield compression).

Retaining a strong balance sheet

S Immo’s rental income in Q220 reached €29.4m (down by only c 1% y-o-y). Rent collection in the office and residential segments remained strong (c 95% for offices), while retail (including in particular its Sun Plaza shopping centre in Bucharest) saw a greater impact of lockdown. The company’s balance sheet remains robust with a moderate net LTV of 44.6% and a cash position of c €224m at end June 2020. Part of the cash has already been spent post the balance sheet date on the acquisition of the Zagrebtower office complex in Croatia, share buyback and equity/convertible investments in IMMOFINANZ. S Immo will also pay a dividend of €0.70 per share out of FY19 earnings (implying a yield of 4.6%).

Valuation: Discount to FY20e NAV of c 17%

S Immo shares are currently trading at an FY20e P/NAV of 0.8x (based on Refinitiv consensus), which sits on par with its peer group. Furthermore, S Immo trades broadly in line with peers on FY21e and FY22e multiples (up to 10% premium based on FY22e figures). The shares offer funds from operations yields of 4.2% and 5.2% based on FY20e and FY21e numbers, respectively.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EPRA NAV/
share (€)
(€m)

FFO1
(€m)

DPS
(€)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

210.4

26.45

64.7

0.70

0.6

4.6

12/20e

184.1

20.37

47.2

0.52

0.8

3.4

12/21e

204.3

20.41

58.6

0.64

0.8

4.2

12/22e

212.9

20.66

66.0

0.69

0.8

4.5

Source: S Immo data, Refinitiv consensus at 12 October 2020

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by S Immo and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S Immo. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by S Immo and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S Immo. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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