IQE — Supply chain issues affecting smartphones

IQE (LN: IQE)

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33.10

3.95 (13.55%)

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Research: TMT

IQE — Supply chain issues affecting smartphones

IQE has announced that year-on-year growth in the volumes of GaAs epiwafers was lower in Q421 than it had expected. We believe this relates to supply chain issues in the smartphone industry, which are likely to be resolved during FY22, rather than consumer demand for handsets. We have changed our estimates in line with revised management guidance, cutting FY21 PBT from a £0.1m profit to a £9.2m loss, and our FY22 PBT estimate from a £7.3m profit to a £4.7m loss.

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Written by

TMT

IQE

Supply chain issues affecting smartphones

Trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

26 November 2021

Price

38p

Market cap

£305m

Net cash (£m) at end June 2021 (excluding £52.6m lease liabilities)

0.9

Shares in issue

802.4m

Free float

88.1%

Code

IQE

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(16.0)

(25.1)

(39.6)

Rel (local)

(17.0)

(25.9)

(47.7)

52-week high/low

88.3p

38.0p

Business description

IQE is the leading supplier of epitaxial compound semiconductor wafers globally. The principal applications include radio frequency semiconductors, devices for optical networks, vertical cavity surface emitting lasers and infrared semiconductors.

Next events

FY21 results

March 2022

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

IQE is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

IQE has announced that year-on-year growth in the volumes of GaAs epiwafers was lower in Q421 than it had expected. We believe this relates to supply chain issues in the smartphone industry, which are likely to be resolved during FY22, rather than consumer demand for handsets. We have changed our estimates in line with revised management guidance, cutting FY21 PBT from a £0.1m profit to a £9.2m loss, and our FY22 PBT estimate from a £7.3m profit to a £4.7m loss.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

12/19

140.0

16.2

(7.0)

(2.46)

0.00

N/A

12/20

178.0

29.9

3.2

0.29

0.00

131.0

12/21e

152.0

18.1

(9.2)

(0.96)

0.00

N/A

12/22e

167.3

24.5

(4.2)

(0.46)

0.00

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Performance already affected by currency headwinds

IQE’s news regarding weakness in the global smartphone market echoes recent comments from the companies we believe are IQE’s major wireless customers and market analysts IDC. Manufacturers cannot obtain all the components they need to build sufficient smartphones to meet consumer demand, so their output is lower than they had anticipated, resulting in lower demand for both the wireless epiwafers IQE makes and its vertical cavity surface emitting lasers (VCSEL) photonics device epiwafers. In addition, Q421 sales of other photonics epitaxy will be lower than management expectations because of the rephasing of some defence and security orders and a slow introduction of epitaxy for making distributed feedback lasers for data communications networks. These challenges add to the issues noted in September, ie delays in 5G infrastructure roll-out, which mean that any recovery in demand for GaN epitaxy for 5G infrastructure applications will not happen until FY22, as well as the adverse impact of currency headwinds.

Retaining market share and reducing market risk

IQE continues to invest in a broad range of compound semiconductor technologies. This investment is enabling the group to maintain its share in the wireless epitaxy and VCSEL markets, so it is positioned for growth as the handset and 5G infrastructure markets recover. This investment also enables IQE to supply epitaxy for emerging applications such as longer wavelength VCSELs for autonomous vehicles and lower-cost infrared sensors for health and environmental monitoring, reducing the group’s dependence on 5G adoption.

Valuation: Dependent on smartphone recovery

IQE’s share price has fallen by more than 25% since the 24 November trading update. At current levels, it is trading at a discount to the mean EV/EBITDA multiples of the sample of companies engaged in manufacturing VCSEL epitaxy. However, we believe share price recovery will require greater visibility of a recovery in the smartphone market and the timing of 5G infrastructure roll-out.

Changes to estimates

Management has provided revised guidance for FY21 with full year reported revenues of c £152m generating c £18m EBITDA. This is equivalent to c £164m revenues and c £25m adjusted EBITDA in constant currency, representing an 8% year-on-year decline in group revenues (constant currency) and an EBITDA margin of 15% on a constant currency basis (17% in FY20). In September, management had predicted that group revenues and adjusted EBITDA would be similar to FY20 on a constant currency basis. Management has also changed its guidance on FY21 capital expenditure from £20–30m to £14–17m as the payments for some tool purchases will now be made in FY22 rather than FY21. Management expects net debt to be less than £10m at end FY21.

Exhibit 1: Revisions to estimates

FY20

FY21e

FY22e

£m

Actual

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Revenue

178.0

169.5

152.0

-10.3%

182.4

167.3

-8.3%

EBITDA

29.9

27.4

18.1

-34.0%

39.5

24.5

-37.8%

Adjusted PBT

3.2

0.1

(9.2)

N/M

7.3

(4.2)

N/M

Adjusted EPS (p)

0.29

(0.04)

(0.96)

N/M

0.68

(0.46)

N/M

Capitalised R&D

5.4

8.0

5.0

-37.5%

6.0

5.5

-8.3%

PPE

5.0

25.0

16.0

-36.0%

10.0

20.0

100.0%

Net (cash)/debt excluding finance leases at year end

(1.9)

11.5

9.6

-17.1%

(3.7)

13.8

N/M

Source: Edison Investment Research

We have revised our FY21 estimates downwards in line with this guidance. We have also adjusted our FY22 estimates, giving 10% year-on-year revenue growth overall, but with faster growth in wireless than photonics. We have increased the investment in tangible assets during FY22 to reflect the shift of some payments for tools from FY21 into FY22.

Smartphone market insights

While market analysts International Data Corporation (IDC) reported global handset shipment growth of 19% year-on-year during H121 and a 12% increase compared with H119, this double-digit growth came to an end in Q321. In late October, IDC noted that supply chain and component shortage issues had resulted in a 6.7% decline year-on-year during Q321. IDC further commented that all major vendors' Q421 production targets had been adjusted downwards and, given continued strong demand for handsets, did not anticipate that the supply-side issues would ease until well into 2022. Both of the companies we believe are IQE’s major wireless customers are being negatively affected in the short term by supply chain shortages. Skyworks’ guidance for the quarter ending December 2021 is for revenues of US$1.475–1.525bn compared with US$1.510bn during the corresponding quarter in the prior year. Qorvo expects revenues in the quarter ending December 2021 to decrease sequentially, citing supply challenges and other factors affecting global smartphone demand. It expects these challenges to moderate in the quarter ending March 2022.

Management changes

In November 2020, Dr Drew Nelson, IQE’s founder and CEO, announced his intention to step aside from his current role once a successor had been found. A successor, Americo Lemos, has recently been appointed and will become CEO in January. Mr Lemos is currently on the executive team of the semiconductor designer and manufacture GlobalFoundries, where he is senior vice president of business development for Asia Pacific and China country president, responsible for growing business in these markets. Previous roles include senior VP Qualcomm Datacenter Technologies, VP Platform Engineering Group at Intel, VP Mobile Design Organisation at Flextronics and director of 3G Programs at Texas Instruments. We believe that his priority on joining IQE will be aligning the group’s technology roadmap to market opportunities, thus improving return on the investment in IP and capital equipment for investors.

Dr Nelson has stepped down as CEO and become a non-executive board member with the title of president, acting in an advisory and ambassadorial role for the business. He will also devote more of his time to the further development of the Compound Semiconductor Cluster in South Wales. Chairman Phil Smith has temporarily moved from a non-executive to an executive role until Mr Lemos takes up his appointment.

Valuation: Share price recovery dependent on 5G handset and infrastructure markets

Exhibit 2: Peer valuation

Company

Market
cap ($m)

EV/Sales 1FY (x)

EV/Sales 2FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 1FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 2FY (x)

P/E 1FY
(x)

P/E 2FY
(x)

Epitaxy

LandMark Optoelectronics

646

8.5

6.9

16.5

13.0

39.4

28.5

Soitec

8,885

9.6

7.7

29.6

23.3

54.0

43.3

Visual Photonics Epitaxy

971

7.3

6.4

18.8

16.7

29.8

24.7

WIN Semiconductors

5,355

6.3

5.5

15.4

12.4

27.8

21.6

Opto-electronics

II-VI

6,832

2.4

2.1

9.2

8.3

17.8

14.6

EMCORE

292

1.4

1.3

7.7

6.5

11.5

10.1

Lumentum Holdings

6,450

3.3

3.0

9.3

8.7

14.6

13.4

Mean - Epitaxy and Opto-electronics

5.5

4.7

15.2

12.7

27.8

22.3

LandMark Optoelectronics

646

8.5

6.9

16.5

13.0

39.4

28.5

Visual Photonics Epitaxy

971

7.3

6.4

18.8

16.7

29.8

24.7

Mean – VCSELs

7.9

6.7

17.7

14.8

34.6

26.6

IQE

$407m

2.0

1.8

16.8

12.3

(39.5)

(83.2)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices at 25 November 2021

We include a comparative valuation of IQE versus its broader (but imperfect) peer group above. At current levels, IQE is trading at a discount on an EV/sales and EV/EBITDA basis with regards to the sample of companies engaged in manufacturing VCSEL epitaxy. IQE has a broader product portfolio than its VCSEL peers. In addition, it can manufacture in multiple geographies, which gives it relative resilience to US-China trade disputes. For these reasons, we believe it is not reasonable for IQE to trade on EV/EBITDA multiples that are at a discount to the VCSEL sample. However, we believe share price recovery will require greater visibility of the timing of the recovery in the smartphone market and of 5G infrastructure roll-out as these factors will determine the level of demand for wireless and VCSEL epitaxy in FY22.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

140,015

178,016

151,975

167,258

Adjusted Cost of Sales

(119,145)

(144,689)

(135,244)

(146,627)

Adjusted Gross Profit

20,870

33,327

16,731

20,631

EBITDA

 

 

16,246

29,919

18,074

24,537

Depreciation and Amortisation

(22,289)

(24,533)

(25,500)

(26,500)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(4,676)

5,386

(7,426)

(1,963)

Acquired Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(14,897)

(10,638)

0

(2,500)

Share based payments

771

(265)

(1,500)

(1,500)

Operating Profit

(18,802)

(5,517)

(8,926)

(5,963)

Underlying interest

(1,606)

(2,165)

(1,800)

(2,200)

Exceptionals and losses from JVs

(4,540)

3,788

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(7,019)

3,221

(9,226)

(4,163)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(24,948)

(3,894)

(10,726)

(8,163)

Reported tax

(10,180)

1,001

1,753

791

Profit After Tax (norm)

(19,010)

2,702

(7,473)

(3,372)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(35,128)

(2,893)

(8,973)

(7,372)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

787.2

797.2

801.6

802.4

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(2.46)

0.29

(0.96)

(0.46)

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

(4.51)

(0.41)

(1.16)

(0.96)

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

14.9

18.7

11.0

12.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.6

16.8

11.9

14.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

-3.3

3.0

-4.9

-1.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

300,047

277,161

272,661

271,661

Intangible Assets

118,456

105,772

103,272

101,272

Tangible Assets

136,557

126,229

124,229

125,229

Other

45,034

45,160

45,160

45,160

Current Assets

 

 

72,533

94,125

77,922

76,807

Stocks

30,668

30,887

30,603

31,619

Debtors

33,065

38,575

34,142

36,201

Cash

8,800

24,663

13,177

8,987

Other

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(32,646)

(48,545)

(40,243)

(43,591)

Creditors

(27,529)

(37,546)

(29,244)

(32,592)

Short term borrowings (including lease liabilities)

(5,117)

(10,999)

(10,999)

(10,999)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(69,491)

(62,306)

(57,306)

(57,306)

Long term borrowings (including lease liabilities)

(67,631)

(58,765)

(53,765)

(53,765)

Other long-term liabilities

(1,860)

(3,541)

(3,541)

(3,541)

Net Assets

 

 

270,443

260,435

253,034

247,571

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

8,948

35,457

16,314

23,510

Net Interest

(671)

(1,142)

(1,800)

(2,200)

Tax

(151)

(993)

0

0

Capital expenditure and capitalised R&D

(41,834)

(10,402)

(21,000)

(25,500)

Acquisitions/disposals

10

(1,363)

0

0

Financing

712

240

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(32,986)

21,797

(6,486)

(4,190)

Opening net debt/(cash) including lease liabilities

 

(20,807)

63,948

45,101

51,587

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(51,769)

(2,950)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash) including lease liabilities

 

63,948

45,101

51,587

55,777

Closing net debt/(cash) excluding finance leases

 

15,970

(1,923)

9,563

13,753

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Industrials

Accsys Technologies — Growing and investing

Ongoing strong demand remains encouraging for Accsys and investment to support future growth is also an indicator of confidence in the outlook, in our view. The broader strategic plan – including well-flagged and material capacity expansion – is intact and our earnings expectations are materially as before. Accsys is at a key business development stage and poised to enter a significant earnings growth phase.

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