Taylor Wimpey — Update 16 January 2017

Taylor Wimpey — Update 16 January 2017

Taylor Wimpey

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Taylor Wimpey

Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst

Household goods

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16 January 2017

Price

173p

Market cap

£5.70bn

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Share details

Code

TW

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

3.3bn

Business description

Taylor Wimpey builds new dwellings and carries out land development nationally in the UK and on a small scale in Southern Spain.

Bull

Strong demand and mortgage availability.

Solid balance sheet, much diminished risk. Net cash of £365m in FY16.

Operationally very high performer.

Bear

Housing is cyclical and past its growth rate peak.

London market pricing hit by tax changes.

Build cost inflation affected by FX & skills gaps.

Analysts

Stephen Rawlinson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Taylor Wimpey’s (TW) trading update on 11 January emphasised the great strengths management has achieved in recent years and some of its fears: the land bank, the net cash, forward sales and the highly robust balance sheet, along with great operational capability, are all driving high margins and ROCE, but the near-death experience of 2007-10 taught the company that house building is cyclical so the structure is built around ensuring it can deliver earnings and manage the balance sheet across the cycle.

Confirms on track for earnings and dividends

The main content of the update is that earnings in the short term and foreseeable future are in line with expectations. The main part of the statement covered 2016, but the pointers to 2017, order book, land bank and cash indicate business will meet top-end expectations and return £1.3bn to shareholders by 2018.

Housing remains an attractive area

Building houses in the UK is an attractive business, with ROCE of 20%+ as the norm for established companies. TW is capable of above average returns, in our view, as a large and increasing proportion of its land is sourced from long-term land it has developed itself, which has above average margins. 9,000 of the 14,000 plots acquired in 2016 were from the strategic “stockpile”, which is currently at well over 100,000 potential plots. Government encouragement for the sector has been at a high level for over two years and that will continue. A Housing White Paper is due.

Cautious estimates show solid growth

The consensus estimates are realistic, in our view, based on market conditions remaining broadly unchanged. The housing market is in a prolonged growth phase. Forecasts for TW anticipate a realistic slowing in volume and price growth.

Valuation

House builders are usually best avoided when they are apparently cheap in earnings terms, ie on 12x P/E or less. However, we believe that the downside to consensus estimates is considerably less risky than it has been in the past, hence there are reasons to remain strongly supportive. In the past large land holdings weighed heavily on corporate balance sheets, but now most land is bought on contingent deferred terms, thereby substantially protecting the balance sheet.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£bn)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS*
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

3.14

603.8

14.7

11.0

11.8

6.4

12/16e

3.56

713.5

17.4

13.7

10.0

7.9

12/17e

3.69

737.1

17.9

14.7

9.7

8.5

12/18e

3.83

768.3

18.8

15.6

9.2

9.0

Source: Bloomberg. Note: DPS includes special payments.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2017]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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