S&U — Timing is everything

S&U (LSE: SUS)

Last close As at 26/09/2024

GBP16.50

−50.00 (−2.94%)

Market capitalisation

GBP201m

More on this equity

Research: Financials

S&U — Timing is everything

Interim results, for the six months to 31 July (H125), will be published on 8 October. Ahead of that, S&U has alerted the market that based on the H1 performance, full year PBT is unlikely to meet the previous market consensus expectations. We believe this to be primarily a timing issue, reflecting the continuing impact of the temporary FCA restrictions on collections activity in the motor finance business. Once regulatory clarity has been established, we expect a significant recovery. Meanwhile, as previously reported, the property lending division continues to perform strongly. We have reduced our FY25 PBT estimate by 7% to £27m and will review our FY26 forecasts with the interim results.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Financials

S&U

Timing is everything

Pre-interims trading update

Financial services

23 September 2024

Price

£15.80

Market cap

£205m

Net debt at end January 2024

£225m

Shares in issue

12.2m

Free float

25%

Code

SUS

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.5)

(19.0)

(30.7)

Rel (local)

(11.0)

(18.8)

(35.4)

52-week high/low

£23.10

£15.80

Business description

S&U’s Advantage motor finance business lends to lower- and middle-income groups that may have impaired credit records. The Aspen property bridging business supports UK residential property development and has been growing successfully since launch in 2017.

Next events

Interim results

8 October 2024

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 7900 484 805

S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Interim results, for the six months to 31 July (H125), will be published on 8 October. Ahead of that, S&U has alerted the market that based on the H1 performance, full year PBT is unlikely to meet the previous market consensus expectations. We believe this to be primarily a timing issue, reflecting the continuing impact of the temporary FCA restrictions on collections activity in the motor finance business. Once regulatory clarity has been established, we expect a significant recovery. Meanwhile, as previously reported, the property lending division continues to perform strongly. We have reduced our FY25 PBT estimate by 7% to £27m and will review our FY26 forecasts with the interim results.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/23

102.7

41.4

277.5

133.0

5.7

8.4

01/24

115.4

33.6

209.3

120.0

7.5

7.6

01/25e

123.3

27.0

166.9

120.0

9.5

7.6

01/26e

130.3

36.2

223.4

125.0

7.1

7.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

The good and the bad

In August, S&U provided an update on its H125 operational performance. This contrasted the strong performance of Aspen Bridging, its property lending business, with that of its motor finance business, Advantage. S&U expects H125 PBT of c £12.8m, which, because of the pressures on Advantage, is below its earlier expectations. As a result, it no longer expects to meet the previous consensus expectation (and our previous estimate) of £29m. We have made preliminary adjustments to our FY25 forecasts (details on the following page) and while there may be some follow through into FY26 we will review this with the results.

Advantage should quickly improve

Advantage has been in a consolidation phase amid industry discussions with the FCA on collections procedures and forbearance. It has taken a cautious approach to new lending and collections procedures, such that the collection rate of 87% compares with 92% in FY24. Management continues to expect the regulatory negotiations to conclude in H2, but the exact timing remains uncertain. When there is clarity, we expect a significant recovery in Advantage’s loan originations and collections, along with a positive impact on funding costs from lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Aspen continues to show good growth, providing a partial offset to the pressures on Advantage. As previously reported, H125 net receivables increased 13% versus FY24, with ‘excellent’ credit quality and a strong pipeline.

Valuation: Significant upside potential

S&U shares trade on P/E multiples of 9.5x in FY25e and 7.1x in FY26e and yield over 7%. The FY25e return on equity (ROE) of c 8.5% is well below the 10-year average of 15%. Taking the FY26e ROE of 11%, using a cost of equity (CoE) of 10% and a 2% growth rate in our RoE versus CoE model, the implied valuation is 2,169p (unchanged). Including expected dividends of 120p, this would represent a 45% 12month total return. Alternatively, the share price implies a long-term RoE of 8%.

Preliminary estimate changes

Given the proximity of the H125 results we have made only preliminary adjustment to our FY25 forecasts and have left that for FY26 unchanged. While the exact timing of regulatory clarity may have an impact on the expected FY26 recovery at Advantage, it is unclear at this stage. We are also mindful of the positive outlook for Aspen.

The key drag on Advantage’s current profitability is restricted collections activity and the associated increase in impairment provisions. S&U accounts for bad debts conservatively compared to the industry, as loans are transferred to IFRS 9 stage 3 provisions after just one month overdue, compared to the industry norm of three months. For now, our earnings reduction is taken as an increase in impairment provisions, although this is more likely to be partly reflected in revenues as more loans move into stage 31.

Income accrual for stage 3 loans is based on the loan value net of provisions rather than the gross value. In accounting terms this transfers some of what would have been income statement impairment to revenue reduction, with no change in earnings.

Exhibit 1: Provisional estimate revisions

FY25e

FY26e

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Revenue (£m)

123.3

123.3

0%

130.3

130.3

0%

EBITDA (£m)

48.5

46.5

(4%)

57.5

57.5

0%

PBT (£m)

29.0

27.0

(7%)

36.2

36.2

0%

EPS (p)

179.3

166.9

(7%)

223.4

223.4

0%

DPS (p)

120.0

120.0

0%

125.0

125.0

4%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

Year end 31 January

£m

2022

2023

2024

2025e

2026e

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

87.9

102.7

115.4

123.3

130.3

Impairments

(4.1)

(13.9)

(24.2)

(33.5)

(27.0)

Other cost of sales

(18.8)

(23.7)

(22.8)

(21.8)

(22.9)

Administration expenses

(13.7)

(15.7)

(19.3)

(21.6)

(22.8)

EBITDA

 

51.3

49.4

49.2

46.5

57.5

Depreciation

 

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.4)

Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)

 

50.8

48.9

48.6

46.0

57.1

Investment revenues / finance expense

(3.8)

(7.5)

(15.1)

(19.0)

(20.9)

Profit before tax

 

47.0

41.4

33.6

27.0

36.2

Tax

(9.0)

(7.7)

(8.1)

(6.8)

(9.0)

Profit after tax

 

38.0

33.7

25.4

20.3

27.1

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

12.1

12.1

12.2

12.2

12.2

Diluted EPS (p)

 

312.7

277.5

209.3

166.9

223.4

EPS - basic (p)

 

312.8

277.5

209.3

166.9

223.4

Dividend per share (p)

126.0

133.0

120.0

120.0

125.0

EBITDA margin (%)

58.4%

48.1%

42.6%

37.7%

44.1%

Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%)

57.8%

47.6%

42.1%

37.3%

43.8%

Return on equity

19.6%

15.6%

11.1%

8.6%

11.0%

BALANCE SHEET

Customer receivables

 

181.6

219.3

242.0

256.7

276.3

Other non-current assets

 

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

Total non-current assets

 

184.2

222.0

244.5

259.1

278.5

Customer receivables

 

141.3

201.4

221.0

234.4

252.3

Other current assets

1.7

4.7

1.4

0.1

0.8

Total current assets

 

143.0

206.1

222.4

234.5

253.1

Total assets

 

327.2

428.2

466.8

493.5

531.6

Borrowings

 

(2.6)

0.0

(0.9)

(0.9)

(0.9)

Other current liabilities

(6.2)

(6.9)

(7.6)

(7.8)

(8.1)

Total current liabilities

 

(8.8)

(6.9)

(8.5)

(8.7)

(9.0)

Borrowings

 

(111.0)

(195.5)

(223.5)

(244.3)

(269.5)

Preference shares

 

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Other non-current liabilities

 

17.3

13.4

16.7

17.1

17.8

Total non current liabilities

(111.7)

(196.4)

(224.2)

(245.0)

(270.2)

Net assets

 

206.7

224.9

234.2

239.9

252.4

NAV per share (p)

1,702

1,852

1,928

1,975

2,078

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

(2.1)

(62.8)

(15.5)

(7.3)

(9.6)

Net cash from investing activities

(0.3)

(0.7)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Dividends paid

(12.3)

(15.5)

(16.2)

(14.6)

(14.6)

Other financing (excluding change in borrowing)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net cash flow

 

(14.6)

(79.0)

(31.9)

(22.2)

(24.5)

Opening net (debt)/cash

 

(99.3)

(114.0)

(193.0)

(224.8)

(247.0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

(114.0)

(193.0)

(224.8)

(247.0)

(271.6)

Source: S&U historical data, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S&U. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S&U. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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