Tourism Holdings — Update 24 February 2016

Tourism Holdings

FY16 NPAT guidance up c 10%

H116 results

General industrials

25 February 2016

Price	NZ$2.39
Market cap	NZ$272m


Net debt (NZ$m) at 31 December 2015		90.4

Shares in issue	113.8m
Free float	78%
Code	THL

Primary exchange	NZ
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	9.6	8.1	27.8
Rel (local)	7.7	6.3	22.9

52-week high/low

NZ$2.5

NZ$1.6

Business description

Tourism Holdings listed on the NZX in 1986. It is the largest motorhome rental operator in the world with a fleet of 3,145 motorhomes designed to meet the needs of the free independent traveller (FIT) market.

Next event

FY16 results

August 2016

23 February 2016

Analysts

Moira Daw	+61 2 9258 1161
Finola Burke	+61 2 9258 1161

industrials@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

Tourism Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Tourism Holdings’ (THL) H116 results (NPAT of NZ$8.2m up 45% on H115, interim dividend NZ$0.09 up 28.5%) and its ~10% lift in forecast FY16 NPAT guidance to ~NZ$24m provide proof of the success of its strategy to right size the fleet, optimise capital employed and position the business to take advantage of the strong tourism market in Australia and NZ. Management’s focus continues to be on optimising capital employed in the business and achieving a long-term average company-wide ROCE target of 14%. Our forecasts show FY16 ROCE reaching 16.6% and improving thereafter.

Year end	Revenue (NZ$m)	PBT* (NZ$m)	EPS* (c)	DPS (c)	P/E (x)	Yield (%)
06/15	237.3	31.4	17.9	15.0	13.4	6.3
06/16e	270.0	38.8	21.2	19.0	11.3	7.9
06/17e	271.1	40.1	22.9	21.0	10.4	8.8
06/18e	283.3	43.6	25.1	23.0	9.5	9.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Visitor arrivals exceed forecasts made by NZ and Australian government tourism authorities

At the start of 2015, Tourism New Zealand forecast visitor arrivals to New Zealand (NZ) during 2015 to grow by ~5%. Actual visitor numbers in NZ were up 10% to 3.1m for 2015. In Australia visitor numbers were up 8.2% to 7.4m beating the ~5% growth forecast made by Tourism Australia. Visitors from Australia to NZ and vice versa remain the largest visitor groups for both markets; however, the strongest growth in both countries came from China. In 2015 visitors from China to NZ were up 34.4% and visitors from China to Australia were up 21.9%. We understand that Chinese tourists represent a small but growing market for THL’s products.

FY16 guidance and forecast changes

FY16 guidance of NPAT of ~NZ$24m (including NZ$2m on investments in new initiatives) has been incorporated in our forecasts. Our forecasts and the company’s FY19 NPAT target of NZ$30m do not include acquisitions, which THL has flagged as an opportunity to continue to diversify by product and geography. THL’s growth strategies include: ‘total customer experience’, the flex fleet plan and the launch of telematics; entry to the sharing economy; and acquisitions. For further discussion of THL’s strategy see our November 2015 note FY16 on track. The long-term fundamentals for the business remain positive.

Valuation: DCF valuation NZ$3.14

Our DCF valuation of NZ$3.14 (it was NZ$2.42 before forecast changes and capex adjustments) does not take into account potential value added from acquisitions, which remain part of THL’s strategy. Our view is that the gap between value and share price will continue to unwind as the company delivers on its strategy and improves ROCE (our FY16 forecast ROCE is 16.6%). Our peer group FY16e EV/EBIT multiple of 10.4x compares with THL’s FY16e EV/EBIT multiple of 8.6x and our DCF implied FY16e EV/EBIT multiple of 10.6x.

H116 results

Key highlights of the H1 results include:

■

H116 ROCE (using average net funds employed) was 11.9% compared with 8.7% in H115. The seasonal skew to the second half means that the first half results will most likely show returns below the company’s target ROCE long-term average of 14% across all business units. Our FY16 forecasts show ROCE (calculated as per company definition) of 16.6% using average funds employed.

■

The weakening of the NZ dollar against the US dollar increased US EBIT by ~NZ$2.0m or about 45% of the improvement in overall EBIT for the period.

■

NPAT was up 45% to NZ$8.2m (from NZ$5.6m in H115). Without the positive currency impact NPAT would have been NZ$7.0m up 25% on H115.

■

Basic EPS of NZ$0.072 were up 44%.

■

An operating cash outflow of NZ$9.0m as a result of the purchase of rental assets of NZ$61.9m compared with purchase of rental assets in H115 of NZ$39.5m.

■

Dividend of NZ$0.09 per share compared with NZ$0.07 per share in H115. Dividends are 50% imputed because around 50% of THL’s profits before tax are derived from NZ operations.

■

An H116 EBIT margin of 11.2%, compared with 9.5% for H115.

■

55% of EBIT was attributable to the US rentals business (H115: 50.6%).

■

The JV contributed NZ$1.0m. This compares with the H115 contribution of NZ$2.3m and H215 contribution of NZ$1.6m. The reduced contribution is a result of a reduction in recreational vehicles (RV) margins, which means lower build costs for vans purchased by THL from the JV.

■

H116 vehicle number changes were an increase of 42 in NZ, a reduction of 61 in Australia due to a reduction in the 4WD fleet and an increase of 137 vehicles in US.

■

Net debt at 31 December 2015 was NZ$90.4m, compared with net debt + LC commitments of NZ$83m at 31 December 2014. The net debt/EBITDA ratio is steady at 1.3x (1.4x in H115). EBIT interest cover is 8.1x (H115 of 5.5x).

■

Net debt is comfortably within the Baa/BBB target range and therefore there should be some capacity for acquisitions.

Exhibit 1: H116 results by division, NZ$m

	NZ Rentals	NZ Tourism	Aus Rentals	US rentals	Unallocated	Total
Sales & services	26.5	15.1	30.3	16.9	0.1	88.8
Sale of goods	16.3		5.9	22.7		44.9
Total revenue	42.8	15.1	36.2	39.6	0.1	133.7
Depreciation	(6.6)	(0.6)	(6.6)	(2.1)	(0.1)	(16.1)
Amortisation	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.0)		(0.4)	(0.8)
Other costs	(36.1)	(10.8)	(24.9)	(27.6)	(2.4)	(101.8)
Operating Profit	(0.0)	3.3	4.7	9.8	(2.8)	15.0
Interest income	0.0		0.0		0.2	0.2
Interest expense			(0.3)	(0.2)	(2.0)	(2.5)
Share JV/associates					1.0	1.0
Net profit before tax	0.0	3.3	4.4	9.6	(3.6)	13.7
Income tax	(0.0)	(1.0)	(1.3)	(3.9)	0.8	(5.5)
NPAT	0.0	2.3	3.1	5.7	(2.8)	8.2
Net funds employed	129.0	26.0	55.0	38.0	12.0	260.0
EBITDA %	15.6%	28.5%	31.3%	30.3%	-4237.5%	23.9%
EBIT %	0.0%	22.2%	12.9%	24.8%	-5046.4%	11.2%
NPAT %	0.0%	15.4%	8.4%	14.3%	-5080.4%	6.1%
ROCE (average CE)	0.0%	26.9%	16.3%	65.9%	-42.5%	11.9%

Source: THL data

FY16 guidance upgraded

■

The company’s new NPAT guidance of ~NZ$24m (was NZ$22m) is after expensing costs of about NZ$2m on the Mighway project and other initiatives. The benefits from this programme are expected in future periods.

■

THL is now forecasting net capex spend of NZ$45m, which is some NZ$10m more than management’s previous forecast and represents additional investments in the flex fleet.

■

THL confirmed its dividend policy of distributing 75-90% of NPAT.

■

Global tourism related acquisitions remain on the agenda. The company has a particular focus on the wider RV market.

Financials: Forecast changes

Our forecasts have been changed to reflect the company’s upgraded guidance for FY16. We have also increased our subsequent year’s earnings and now have our FY19 NPAT at NZ$32m, which is ahead of the company’s guidance of NZ$30m without acquisitions. Our forecasts do not include acquisitions. We are forecasting a total net debt of NZ$87m at end of FY16 with the net debt level gradually reducing thereafter, in line with the company’s intention to reduce debt over time. This may change if the company makes a debt funded or part debt funded acquisition.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

	2016	2016	2016	2017	2017	2017	2018	2018	2018
(NZ$m)	Old	New	Variance	Old	New	Variance	Old	New	Variance
Revenue	250.6	270.0	7.7%	262.7	271.1	3.2%	274.5	283.3	3.2%
EBITDA	72.1	76.2	5.6%	76.6	78.4	2.3%	80.3	82.2	2.4%
EBIT (after associates)	37.4	41.8	11.8%	41.5	43.0	3.7%	44.8	46.5	3.8%
NPAT (normalised)	24.1	25.8	7.1%	25.5	27.8	2.4%	27.7	30.2	2.9%
EPS (c)	19.6	21.2	8.2%	22.4	22.9	2.4%	24.3	25.1	3.1%
DPS (c)	18.0	19.0	5.6%	20.0	21.0	5.0%	22.0	23.0	4.5%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Previously, our NPAT (normalised) forecasts excluded amortisation whereas we have now included them in our normalised NPAT calculation.

Divisional performance

The NZ rentals business achieved a break-even result compared with a loss of NZ$1.1m in H115. Revenue was up 11% as a result of improved utilisation and some increases in yield. The improvement in EBIT was helped by cost control with operating costs up only 3%. The rental fleet includes vehicles that will be sold after the peak period as part of the flex fleet. The flex fleet initiative includes obtaining (or transferring from the UK) vehicles to meet demand during the peak season and selling them at the end of the season either as recreational vehicles or re-fitting as passenger vans/delivery vehicles that can be sold into those markets. Management advises that demand for THL’s products during the current peak southern hemisphere season remains strong.

The flat period-on-period EBIT result (NZ$4.7m) for Australia includes upfront costs for Telematics (designed to improve driver safety and reduce RV maintenance costs) and the set-up of the Melbourne RV Sales Centre. The benefits from these costs will be realised in future periods. Rental income in Australian dollar terms was up 2% (1% in NZ dollars) and operating costs were up 4% for a flat EBIT result in both NZ and Australian dollars. The reduction of 61 vehicles represents a change in the 4WD fleet. The owned fleet has been sold and has been replaced with a new purchased fleet. THL has a buy-back arrangement in place for this fleet however, management expects the buy-back to take place in the FY17 year.

The US rentals business remains the stellar performer with rental income up 15% in US dollar terms (48% in NZ dollars). The change in the NZ$/US$ exchange rate (H116 NZ$0.67/US$, compared with H115 NZ$0.87/US$) resulted in an increase in H116 EBIT of 61% (25% in NZ dollar terms). The opening of the Seattle branch is on track for the 2016 northern hemisphere summer season and management advises that forward bookings are in line with the company’s expectations.

Tourism Group EBIT was up 37% due to increased visits to Waitomo Caves particularly from the Chinese market and a strong start to the Kiwi Experience peak travel period (commencing in December).

The H116 result of the Action Manufacturing JV included the first production of the new Kea Breeze 4-berth and the Action Pods. These products are to be used as flex fleet by the NZ rentals business across the summer peak season. The JV will also focus on developing markets for its emergency vehicle products in both the NZ and Australian markets. The debt outstanding at H116 is NZ$1.3m less than at the end of H115.

Addressing capital intensity

THL continues to address the capital intensity of the business. In the RV market its objective is to move towards the US (Road Bear) model where, because of the size of the RV market, THL is able to turn the fleet over in nine to 18 months. THL has a number of initiatives including bringing vans used by the UK business during the northern hemisphere summer (July to September) to NZ for use in the southern hemisphere summer (December to March) season. These vans are then sold into the NZ second-hand vehicle market. THL has also developed innovative ‘pod’ products that allow vans to be fitted for use as RVs and then refitted for resale into the passenger/delivery vehicle market.

The flex fleet model is being trialled in NZ over the 2015/16 summer season. Current expectations are for the flex fleet turnover period in NZ to be nine months. In Australia the 4WD flex fleet for the 2016 winter season has been purchased under a buy-back arrangement. This arrangement results in a turnover period of nine months.

In FY16 about 54% of gross capex (~NZ$70m) is expected to be spent on fleet that management expects to turnover in nine to 18 months.

ROCE continues to improve

The company’s strategy to right size the business and to focus on returns has begun to bear fruit. The ROCE has improved from 10% (the approximate WACC) in 2014 to 14.2% in 2015. The company’s guidance for FY16 and our FY16 forecasts show ROCE improving to 16.6%. By FY18 ROCE is expected to increase to 17.9%.

Exhibit 3: ROCE

Source: THL data, Edison Investment Research estimates

Valuation

We have reviewed and updated our DCF valuation. We have used a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 2%. The terminal value in our DCF accounts for 45% of our DCF valuation of NZ$3.14. The primary change to our out year forecasts and the biggest impact on the change in our DCF (was NZ$2.42 previously) was a reduction in capital expenditure included in the latter years and the terminal value. We have also rolled forward our DCF model by one year.

Exhibit 4: DCF valuation

(NZ$m)		2016e	2017e	2018e	Terminal
Free cashflow		43.6	40.6	35.6	45.0
Discount		0.909	0.826	0.751	0.350
Discounted value		39.6	33.6	26.7
Sum of PV	244.1

Terminal value at FY24e	573.5
Discount factor	0.350
PV of terminal value	201.0

Debt	445.2
Net value for shareholders	87.2
	358.0
Number of shares on issue	113.8
NPV (NZ$)	3.14

Source: Edison Investment Research

There is no directly comparable company in the peer group. The peer group has an average market cap of NZ$2.8bn, which is ~10x the market cap of THL, however all peers share the common characteristic of being capex heavy businesses with some tourism exposure. We believe that THL should trade at a discount to its peer group because of its lack of size and diversity. A 10% discount to the peer group FY16 EV/EBIT of 10.4x implies a valuation of NZ$2.75 and a 5% discount implies a valuation of NZ$2.90 compared with our DCF of NZ$3.14.

Exhibit 5: THL – peer group

Company

($)

Mkt Cap

P/E

EV/EBIT

P/B

Yield

($m)

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

Air New Zealand

NZ$

3,131

5.3X

6.0X

6.8X

4.7X

5.3X

6.0X

1.4X

1.2X

1.1X

7.9%

7.6%

7.5%

Qantas

AUD

7,816

6.5X

5.9X

5.8X

5.7X

6.1X

2.0X

1.6X

1.4X

7.9%

5.9%

6.4%

Amalgamated Holdings

AUD

2,385

18.6X

17.7X

16.3X

13.2X

12.4X

11.5X

2.5X

2.4X

2.1X

3.6%

3.8%

4.2%

Village Roadshow

AUD

1,077

17.9X

15.8X

13.7X

13.6X

12.2X

10.9X

2.4X

2.3X

1.9X

4.4%

4.7%

5.2%

Ardent Leisure

AUD

823

14.4X

12.2X

11.1X

14.2X

11.8X

10.3X

1.4X

7.1%

7.6%

Fleetwood

AUD

8.8X

5.7X

10.9X

7.5X

0.2X

2.8%

5.0%

Average peer group

11.9X

10.6X

10.8X

10.4X

9.2X

9.0X

1.7X

1.5X

1.6X

5.6%

5.8%

6.1%

Car rental companies

Avis

US$

2,978

8.6X

7.9X

0.0X

3.6X

3.0X

0.0%

Hertz

US$

3,924

7.8X

6.5X

16.7X

14.4X

1.4X

1.2X

0.0%

Tourism Holdings

NZ$

282

11.3X

10.4X

9.5X

9.9X

8.6X

8.3X

1.6X

1.5X

6.3%

7.9%

8.8%

Peer group (exc car rental)

11.9X

10.6X

10.8X

10.4X

9.2X

9.0X

1.7X

1.5X

1.6X

5.6%

5.8%

6.1%

Variance

(0.62)

(0.15)

(1.25)

(0.50)

(0.56)

(0.66)

(0.05)

0.08

(0.09)

0.7%

2.1%

2.7%

Source: THL data, Bloomberg. Note: Priced as at 23 February 2015

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

	NZ$000s	2014	2015	2016e	2017e	2018e
Year end 30 June		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue		226,668	237,264	269,950	271,064	283,257
Cost of Sales		(58,005)	(60,287)	(76,367)	(72,561)	(76,455)
Gross Profit		168,663	176,977	193,582	198,503	206,802
EBITDA		61,322	65,561	76,164	78,352	82,224
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)		25,494	35,878	43,462	44,678	48,222
Intangible Amortisation		(1,637)	(1,583)	(1,651)	(1,673)	(1,673)
Exceptionals		0	0	0	0	0
Other		0	0	0	0	0
Operating Profit		23,857	34,295	41,811	43,005	46,549
Net Interest		(5,694)	(4,446)	(4,663)	(4,593)	(4,594)
Profit Before Tax (norm)		19,800	31,432	38,800	40,085	43,628
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)		18,163	29,849	37,148	38,413	41,955
Tax		(7,047)	(9,750)	(12,997)	(12,292)	(13,426)
Profit After Tax (norm)		12,753	21,682	25,802	27,793	30,202
Profit After Tax (FRS 3)		11,116	20,099	24,151	26,121	28,529

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)		111.8	112.9	113.8	113.8	113.8
EPS - normalised (c)		10.0	17.9	21.2	22.9	25.1
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)		9.5	17.0	20.2	21.8	23.9
EPS - (IFRS) (c)		9.9	17.8	21.2	22.9	25.1
Dividend per share (c )		11.0	15.0	19.0	21.0	23.0

Gross Margin (%)		74.4	74.6	86.5	73.2	73.0
EBITDA Margin (%)		27.1	27.6	28.2	28.9	29.0
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)		11.2	15.1	16.1	16.5	17.0

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		256,355	274,227	275,175	277,036	274,550
Intangible Assets		20,790	20,753	20,072	18,399	16,726
Tangible Assets		228,957	244,412	248,540	252,074	251,260
Investments		6,608	9,062	6,563	6,563	6,563
Current Assets		39,180	44,054	45,334	57,671	63,792
Stocks		17,281	15,996	9,770	9,715	10,135
Debtors		15,119	17,820	18,038	18,112	18,932
Cash		3,479	6,526	9,206	11,522	16,405
Other		3,301	3,712	8,321	18,321	18,321
Current Liabilities		(61,653)	(59,884)	(37,343)	(49,328)	(50,619)
Creditors		(46,121)	(56,005)	(37,343)	(49,328)	(50,619)
Short term borrowings		(15,532)	(3,879)	0	0	0
Long Term Liabilities		(73,986)	(83,986)	(109,043)	(109,043)	(109,043)
Long term borrowings		(66,607)	(71,884)	(96,393)	(96,393)	(96,393)
Other long term liabilities		(7,379)	(12,102)	(12,650)	(12,650)	(12,650)
Net Assets		159,896	174,411	174,122	176,335	178,680

CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow		53,390	33,420	42,298	80,317	82,276
Net Interest		(6,429)	(4,546)	(4,663)	(4,593)	(4,594)
Tax		(2,996)	(4,695)	(13,349)	(12,292)	(13,426)
Capex		0	(3,369)	(25,336)	(37,208)	(33,189)
Acquisitions/disposals		27	6,576	2,239	0	0
Financing		949	756	654	0	0
Dividends		(7,802)	(14,655)	(20,499)	(23,908)	(26,185)
Net Cash Flow		37,139	13,487	(18,656)	2,317	4,882
Opening net debt/(cash)		119,647	78,660	69,237	87,187	84,871
HP finance leases initiated		0	0	0	0	0
Other		0	(4,064)	706	(0)	(0)
Closing net debt/(cash)		78,660	69,237	87,187	84,871	79,988

Source: Tourism Holdings accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: Previously, our NPAT (normalised) forecasts did not add back amortisation whereas we have now made this adjustment to our normalised NPAT calculation.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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