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Tourism Holdings — Update 24 February 2016

Tourism Holdings — Update 24 February 2016

Tourism Holdings

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Tourism Holdings

FY16 NPAT guidance up c 10%

H116 results

General industrials

25 February 2016

Price

NZ$2.39

Market cap

NZ$272m

Net debt (NZ$m) at 31 December 2015

90.4

Shares in issue

113.8m

Free float

78%

Code

THL

Primary exchange

NZ

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

9.6

8.1

27.8

Rel (local)

7.7

6.3

22.9

52-week high/low

NZ$2.5

NZ$1.6

Business description

Tourism Holdings listed on the NZX in 1986. It is the largest motorhome rental operator in the world with a fleet of 3,145 motorhomes designed to meet the needs of the free independent traveller (FIT) market.

Next event

FY16 results

August 2016

23 February 2016

Analysts

Moira Daw

+61 2 9258 1161

Finola Burke

+61 2 9258 1161

Tourism Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Tourism Holdings’ (THL) H116 results (NPAT of NZ$8.2m up 45% on H115, interim dividend NZ$0.09 up 28.5%) and its ~10% lift in forecast FY16 NPAT guidance to ~NZ$24m provide proof of the success of its strategy to right size the fleet, optimise capital employed and position the business to take advantage of the strong tourism market in Australia and NZ. Management’s focus continues to be on optimising capital employed in the business and achieving a long-term average company-wide ROCE target of 14%. Our forecasts show FY16 ROCE reaching 16.6% and improving thereafter.

Year end

Revenue (NZ$m)

PBT*
(NZ$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/15

237.3

31.4

17.9

15.0

13.4

6.3

06/16e

270.0

38.8

21.2

19.0

11.3

7.9

06/17e

271.1

40.1

22.9

21.0

10.4

8.8

06/18e

283.3

43.6

25.1

23.0

9.5

9.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Visitor arrivals exceed forecasts made by NZ and Australian government tourism authorities

At the start of 2015, Tourism New Zealand forecast visitor arrivals to New Zealand (NZ) during 2015 to grow by ~5%. Actual visitor numbers in NZ were up 10% to 3.1m for 2015. In Australia visitor numbers were up 8.2% to 7.4m beating the ~5% growth forecast made by Tourism Australia. Visitors from Australia to NZ and vice versa remain the largest visitor groups for both markets; however, the strongest growth in both countries came from China. In 2015 visitors from China to NZ were up 34.4% and visitors from China to Australia were up 21.9%. We understand that Chinese tourists represent a small but growing market for THL’s products.

FY16 guidance and forecast changes

FY16 guidance of NPAT of ~NZ$24m (including NZ$2m on investments in new initiatives) has been incorporated in our forecasts. Our forecasts and the company’s FY19 NPAT target of NZ$30m do not include acquisitions, which THL has flagged as an opportunity to continue to diversify by product and geography. THL’s growth strategies include: ‘total customer experience’, the flex fleet plan and the launch of telematics; entry to the sharing economy; and acquisitions. For further discussion of THL’s strategy see our November 2015 note FY16 on track. The long-term fundamentals for the business remain positive.

Valuation: DCF valuation NZ$3.14

Our DCF valuation of NZ$3.14 (it was NZ$2.42 before forecast changes and capex adjustments) does not take into account potential value added from acquisitions, which remain part of THL’s strategy. Our view is that the gap between value and share price will continue to unwind as the company delivers on its strategy and improves ROCE (our FY16 forecast ROCE is 16.6%). Our peer group FY16e EV/EBIT multiple of 10.4x compares with THL’s FY16e EV/EBIT multiple of 8.6x and our DCF implied FY16e EV/EBIT multiple of 10.6x.

H116 results

Key highlights of the H1 results include:

■

H116 ROCE (using average net funds employed) was 11.9% compared with 8.7% in H115. The seasonal skew to the second half means that the first half results will most likely show returns below the company’s target ROCE long-term average of 14% across all business units. Our FY16 forecasts show ROCE (calculated as per company definition) of 16.6% using average funds employed.

■

The weakening of the NZ dollar against the US dollar increased US EBIT by ~NZ$2.0m or about 45% of the improvement in overall EBIT for the period.

■

NPAT was up 45% to NZ$8.2m (from NZ$5.6m in H115). Without the positive currency impact NPAT would have been NZ$7.0m up 25% on H115.

■

Basic EPS of NZ$0.072 were up 44%.

■

An operating cash outflow of NZ$9.0m as a result of the purchase of rental assets of NZ$61.9m compared with purchase of rental assets in H115 of NZ$39.5m.

■

Dividend of NZ$0.09 per share compared with NZ$0.07 per share in H115. Dividends are 50% imputed because around 50% of THL’s profits before tax are derived from NZ operations.

■

An H116 EBIT margin of 11.2%, compared with 9.5% for H115.

■

55% of EBIT was attributable to the US rentals business (H115: 50.6%).

■

The JV contributed NZ$1.0m. This compares with the H115 contribution of NZ$2.3m and H215 contribution of NZ$1.6m. The reduced contribution is a result of a reduction in recreational vehicles (RV) margins, which means lower build costs for vans purchased by THL from the JV.

■

H116 vehicle number changes were an increase of 42 in NZ, a reduction of 61 in Australia due to a reduction in the 4WD fleet and an increase of 137 vehicles in US.

■

Net debt at 31 December 2015 was NZ$90.4m, compared with net debt + LC commitments of NZ$83m at 31 December 2014. The net debt/EBITDA ratio is steady at 1.3x (1.4x in H115). EBIT interest cover is 8.1x (H115 of 5.5x).

■

Net debt is comfortably within the Baa/BBB target range and therefore there should be some capacity for acquisitions.

Exhibit 1: H116 results by division, NZ$m

NZ Rentals

NZ Tourism

Aus Rentals

US rentals

Unallocated

Total

Sales & services

26.5

15.1

30.3

16.9

0.1

88.8

Sale of goods

16.3

5.9

22.7

44.9

Total revenue

42.8

15.1

36.2

39.6

0.1

133.7

Depreciation

(6.6)

(0.6)

(6.6)

(2.1)

(0.1)

(16.1)

Amortisation

(0.1)

(0.3)

(0.0)

(0.4)

(0.8)

Other costs

(36.1)

(10.8)

(24.9)

(27.6)

(2.4)

(101.8)

Operating Profit

(0.0)

3.3

4.7

9.8

(2.8)

15.0

Interest income

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

Interest expense

(0.3)

(0.2)

(2.0)

(2.5)

Share JV/associates

1.0

1.0

Net profit before tax

0.0

3.3

4.4

9.6

(3.6)

13.7

Income tax

(0.0)

(1.0)

(1.3)

(3.9)

0.8

(5.5)

NPAT

0.0

2.3

3.1

5.7

(2.8)

8.2

Net funds employed

129.0

26.0

55.0

38.0

12.0

260.0

EBITDA %

15.6%

28.5%

31.3%

30.3%

-4237.5%

23.9%

EBIT %

0.0%

22.2%

12.9%

24.8%

-5046.4%

11.2%

NPAT %

0.0%

15.4%

8.4%

14.3%

-5080.4%

6.1%

ROCE (average CE)

0.0%

26.9%

16.3%

65.9%

-42.5%

11.9%

Source: THL data

FY16 guidance upgraded

■

The company’s new NPAT guidance of ~NZ$24m (was NZ$22m) is after expensing costs of about NZ$2m on the Mighway project and other initiatives. The benefits from this programme are expected in future periods.

■

THL is now forecasting net capex spend of NZ$45m, which is some NZ$10m more than management’s previous forecast and represents additional investments in the flex fleet.

■

THL confirmed its dividend policy of distributing 75-90% of NPAT.

■

Global tourism related acquisitions remain on the agenda. The company has a particular focus on the wider RV market.

Financials: Forecast changes

Our forecasts have been changed to reflect the company’s upgraded guidance for FY16. We have also increased our subsequent year’s earnings and now have our FY19 NPAT at NZ$32m, which is ahead of the company’s guidance of NZ$30m without acquisitions. Our forecasts do not include acquisitions. We are forecasting a total net debt of NZ$87m at end of FY16 with the net debt level gradually reducing thereafter, in line with the company’s intention to reduce debt over time. This may change if the company makes a debt funded or part debt funded acquisition.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

2016

2016

2016

2017

2017

2017

2018

2018

2018

(NZ$m)

Old

New

Variance

Old

New

Variance

Old

New

Variance

Revenue

250.6

270.0

7.7%

262.7

271.1

3.2%

274.5

283.3

3.2%

EBITDA

72.1

76.2

5.6%

76.6

78.4

2.3%

80.3

82.2

2.4%

EBIT (after associates)

37.4

41.8

11.8%

41.5

43.0

3.7%

44.8

46.5

3.8%

NPAT (normalised)

24.1

25.8

7.1%

25.5

27.8

2.4%

27.7

30.2

2.9%

EPS (c)

19.6

21.2

8.2%

22.4

22.9

2.4%

24.3

25.1

3.1%

DPS (c)

18.0

19.0

5.6%

20.0

21.0

5.0%

22.0

23.0

4.5%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Previously, our NPAT (normalised) forecasts excluded amortisation whereas we have now included them in our normalised NPAT calculation.

Divisional performance

The NZ rentals business achieved a break-even result compared with a loss of NZ$1.1m in H115. Revenue was up 11% as a result of improved utilisation and some increases in yield. The improvement in EBIT was helped by cost control with operating costs up only 3%. The rental fleet includes vehicles that will be sold after the peak period as part of the flex fleet. The flex fleet initiative includes obtaining (or transferring from the UK) vehicles to meet demand during the peak season and selling them at the end of the season either as recreational vehicles or re-fitting as passenger vans/delivery vehicles that can be sold into those markets. Management advises that demand for THL’s products during the current peak southern hemisphere season remains strong.

The flat period-on-period EBIT result (NZ$4.7m) for Australia includes upfront costs for Telematics (designed to improve driver safety and reduce RV maintenance costs) and the set-up of the Melbourne RV Sales Centre. The benefits from these costs will be realised in future periods. Rental income in Australian dollar terms was up 2% (1% in NZ dollars) and operating costs were up 4% for a flat EBIT result in both NZ and Australian dollars. The reduction of 61 vehicles represents a change in the 4WD fleet. The owned fleet has been sold and has been replaced with a new purchased fleet. THL has a buy-back arrangement in place for this fleet however, management expects the buy-back to take place in the FY17 year.

The US rentals business remains the stellar performer with rental income up 15% in US dollar terms (48% in NZ dollars). The change in the NZ$/US$ exchange rate (H116 NZ$0.67/US$, compared with H115 NZ$0.87/US$) resulted in an increase in H116 EBIT of 61% (25% in NZ dollar terms). The opening of the Seattle branch is on track for the 2016 northern hemisphere summer season and management advises that forward bookings are in line with the company’s expectations.

Tourism Group EBIT was up 37% due to increased visits to Waitomo Caves particularly from the Chinese market and a strong start to the Kiwi Experience peak travel period (commencing in December).

The H116 result of the Action Manufacturing JV included the first production of the new Kea Breeze 4-berth and the Action Pods. These products are to be used as flex fleet by the NZ rentals business across the summer peak season. The JV will also focus on developing markets for its emergency vehicle products in both the NZ and Australian markets. The debt outstanding at H116 is NZ$1.3m less than at the end of H115.

Addressing capital intensity

THL continues to address the capital intensity of the business. In the RV market its objective is to move towards the US (Road Bear) model where, because of the size of the RV market, THL is able to turn the fleet over in nine to 18 months. THL has a number of initiatives including bringing vans used by the UK business during the northern hemisphere summer (July to September) to NZ for use in the southern hemisphere summer (December to March) season. These vans are then sold into the NZ second-hand vehicle market. THL has also developed innovative ‘pod’ products that allow vans to be fitted for use as RVs and then refitted for resale into the passenger/delivery vehicle market.

The flex fleet model is being trialled in NZ over the 2015/16 summer season. Current expectations are for the flex fleet turnover period in NZ to be nine months. In Australia the 4WD flex fleet for the 2016 winter season has been purchased under a buy-back arrangement. This arrangement results in a turnover period of nine months.

In FY16 about 54% of gross capex (~NZ$70m) is expected to be spent on fleet that management expects to turnover in nine to 18 months.

ROCE continues to improve

The company’s strategy to right size the business and to focus on returns has begun to bear fruit. The ROCE has improved from 10% (the approximate WACC) in 2014 to 14.2% in 2015. The company’s guidance for FY16 and our FY16 forecasts show ROCE improving to 16.6%. By FY18 ROCE is expected to increase to 17.9%.

Exhibit 3: ROCE

Source: THL data, Edison Investment Research estimates

Valuation

We have reviewed and updated our DCF valuation. We have used a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 2%. The terminal value in our DCF accounts for 45% of our DCF valuation of NZ$3.14. The primary change to our out year forecasts and the biggest impact on the change in our DCF (was NZ$2.42 previously) was a reduction in capital expenditure included in the latter years and the terminal value. We have also rolled forward our DCF model by one year.

Exhibit 4: DCF valuation

(NZ$m)

2016e

2017e

2018e

Terminal

Free cashflow

43.6

40.6

35.6

45.0

Discount

0.909

0.826

0.751

0.350

Discounted value

39.6

33.6

26.7

Sum of PV

244.1

Terminal value at FY24e

573.5

Discount factor

0.350

PV of terminal value

201.0

Debt

445.2

Net value for shareholders

87.2

358.0

Number of shares on issue

113.8

NPV (NZ$)

3.14

Source: Edison Investment Research

There is no directly comparable company in the peer group. The peer group has an average market cap of NZ$2.8bn, which is ~10x the market cap of THL, however all peers share the common characteristic of being capex heavy businesses with some tourism exposure. We believe that THL should trade at a discount to its peer group because of its lack of size and diversity. A 10% discount to the peer group FY16 EV/EBIT of 10.4x implies a valuation of NZ$2.75 and a 5% discount implies a valuation of NZ$2.90 compared with our DCF of NZ$3.14.

Exhibit 5: THL – peer group

Company

($)

Mkt Cap

P/E

P/E

P/E

EV/EBIT

EV/EBIT

EV/EBIT

P/B

P/B

P/B

Yield

Yield

Yield

($m)

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

Air New Zealand

NZ$

3,131

5.3X

6.0X

6.8X

4.7X

5.3X

6.0X

1.4X

1.2X

1.1X

7.9%

7.6%

7.5%

Qantas

AUD

7,816

6.5X

5.9X

5.9X

5.8X

5.7X

6.1X

2.0X

1.6X

1.4X

7.9%

5.9%

6.4%

Amalgamated Holdings

AUD

2,385

18.6X

17.7X

16.3X

13.2X

12.4X

11.5X

2.5X

2.4X

2.1X

3.6%

3.8%

4.2%

Village Roadshow

AUD

1,077

17.9X

15.8X

13.7X

13.6X

12.2X

10.9X

2.4X

2.3X

1.9X

4.4%

4.7%

5.2%

Ardent Leisure

AUD

823

14.4X

12.2X

11.1X

14.2X

11.8X

10.3X

1.4X

1.4X

1.4X

7.1%

7.6%

7.6%

Fleetwood

AUD

67

8.8X

5.7X

10.9X

7.5X

0.2X

0.2X

2.8%

5.0%

Average peer group

11.9X

10.6X

10.8X

10.4X

9.2X

9.0X

1.7X

1.5X

1.6X

5.6%

5.8%

6.1%

Car rental companies

Avis

US$

2,978

8.6X

7.9X

0.0X

0.0X

3.6X

3.0X

0.0%

0.0%

Hertz

US$

3,924

7.8X

6.5X

16.7X

14.4X

1.4X

1.2X

0.0%

0.0%

Tourism Holdings

NZ$

282

11.3X

10.4X

9.5X

9.9X

8.6X

8.3X

1.6X

1.6X

1.5X

6.3%

7.9%

8.8%

Peer group (exc car rental)

11.9X

10.6X

10.8X

10.4X

9.2X

9.0X

1.7X

1.5X

1.6X

5.6%

5.8%

6.1%

Variance

(0.62)

(0.15)

(1.25)

(0.50)

(0.56)

(0.66)

(0.05)

0.08

(0.09)

0.7%

2.1%

2.7%

Source: THL data, Bloomberg. Note: Priced as at 23 February 2015

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

NZ$000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Year end 30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

226,668

237,264

269,950

271,064

283,257

Cost of Sales

(58,005)

(60,287)

(76,367)

(72,561)

(76,455)

Gross Profit

168,663

176,977

193,582

198,503

206,802

EBITDA

 

 

61,322

65,561

76,164

78,352

82,224

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

25,494

35,878

43,462

44,678

48,222

Intangible Amortisation

(1,637)

(1,583)

(1,651)

(1,673)

(1,673)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

23,857

34,295

41,811

43,005

46,549

Net Interest

(5,694)

(4,446)

(4,663)

(4,593)

(4,594)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

19,800

31,432

38,800

40,085

43,628

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

18,163

29,849

37,148

38,413

41,955

Tax

(7,047)

(9,750)

(12,997)

(12,292)

(13,426)

Profit After Tax (norm)

12,753

21,682

25,802

27,793

30,202

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

11,116

20,099

24,151

26,121

28,529

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

111.8

112.9

113.8

113.8

113.8

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

10.0

17.9

21.2

22.9

25.1

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

9.5

17.0

20.2

21.8

23.9

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

9.9

17.8

21.2

22.9

25.1

Dividend per share (c )

11.0

15.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

Gross Margin (%)

74.4

74.6

86.5

73.2

73.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

27.1

27.6

28.2

28.9

29.0

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

11.2

15.1

16.1

16.5

17.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

256,355

274,227

275,175

277,036

274,550

Intangible Assets

20,790

20,753

20,072

18,399

16,726

Tangible Assets

228,957

244,412

248,540

252,074

251,260

Investments

6,608

9,062

6,563

6,563

6,563

Current Assets

 

 

39,180

44,054

45,334

57,671

63,792

Stocks

17,281

15,996

9,770

9,715

10,135

Debtors

15,119

17,820

18,038

18,112

18,932

Cash

3,479

6,526

9,206

11,522

16,405

Other

3,301

3,712

8,321

18,321

18,321

Current Liabilities

 

 

(61,653)

(59,884)

(37,343)

(49,328)

(50,619)

Creditors

(46,121)

(56,005)

(37,343)

(49,328)

(50,619)

Short term borrowings

(15,532)

(3,879)

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(73,986)

(83,986)

(109,043)

(109,043)

(109,043)

Long term borrowings

(66,607)

(71,884)

(96,393)

(96,393)

(96,393)

Other long term liabilities

(7,379)

(12,102)

(12,650)

(12,650)

(12,650)

Net Assets

 

 

159,896

174,411

174,122

176,335

178,680

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

53,390

33,420

42,298

80,317

82,276

Net Interest

(6,429)

(4,546)

(4,663)

(4,593)

(4,594)

Tax

(2,996)

(4,695)

(13,349)

(12,292)

(13,426)

Capex

0

(3,369)

(25,336)

(37,208)

(33,189)

Acquisitions/disposals

27

6,576

2,239

0

0

Financing

949

756

654

0

0

Dividends

(7,802)

(14,655)

(20,499)

(23,908)

(26,185)

Net Cash Flow

37,139

13,487

(18,656)

2,317

4,882

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

119,647

78,660

69,237

87,187

84,871

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

(4,064)

706

(0)

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

78,660

69,237

87,187

84,871

79,988

Source: Tourism Holdings accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: Previously, our NPAT (normalised) forecasts did not add back amortisation whereas we have now made this adjustment to our normalised NPAT calculation.

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Research: Financials

Tungsten Corporation — Update 23 February 2016

Tungsten Corporation

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