1Spatial — Transition to software and Saas continues

1Spatial (AIM: SPA)

Last close As at 18/03/2025

GBP0.63

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

GBP72m

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Research: TMT

1Spatial — Transition to software and Saas continues

1Spatial’s FY25 trading update indicates that the company’s transition to a higher-margin, recurring software business continues to make solid progress, with term licence and SaaS revenues up over 35% y-o-y to £11.5m. Delays to a large, lower-margin services project suppressed total revenues (£33.4m vs Edison’s estimate of £35.8m), but the improved mix means that EBITDA of ‘at least £5.6m’ is essentially in line with our £5.7m estimate. FY26 has started positively and hence our FY26 revenue and EBITDA estimates remain unchanged, with continued software and SaaS growth driving faster growth and margin expansion. Higher interest costs reduce FY26 EPS by 10%. We continue to believe that the opportunity for 1Spatial with 1Streetworks and in the US is far from being priced in, with further deal flow being the key catalyst for upside.

Written by

Dan Ridsdale

Head of Technology

Software and comp services

Trading update

19 March 2025

Price 64.00p
Market cap £71m

Net cash/(debt) at end FY25e

£(1.1)m

Shares in issue

111.3m
Code SPA
Primary exchange AIM
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 0.0 (7.9) 9.4
52-week high/low 76.5p 51.5p

Business description

1Spatial’s core technology validates, rectifies and enhances geospatial data. Its enterprise solutions ensure data is accurate, compliant and efficiently managed across government, utilities and transportation. The company’s SaaS products address specific workflow bottlenecks, most notably automating the creation of traffic management plans.

Next events

FY25 results

7 May 2025

Analyst

Dan Ridsdale
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Note: EBITDA, EBIT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) EBIT (£m) EPS (p) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)
1/23 30.0 5.0 2.0 1.20 14.5 53.4
1/24 32.3 5.5 2.5 1.40 13.2 45.6
1/25e 33.4 5.6 2.3 1.14 12.9 56.3
1/26e 38.7 7.6 3.8 2.26 9.5 28.3

Transition apparent in improving mix, service delays

Sales of term licence and SaaS software grew by over 35% to £11.5m, ahead of management expectations, despite the backdrop of government changes in the US and UK. Recurring revenue grew 15% to £21.0m, 62% of total revenues. At the top line, this was offset by lower-than-expected service revenue, largely as a result of delays to a €9m service project in Belgium, announced in January 2024. As a result, FY25 revenue is expected to be £33.4m (Edison £35.8m) but with the improved mix, EBITDA is in line at “at least £5.6m” (Edison £5.7m). FY25 net debt of £1.1m (Edison £1.1m net cash) reflects an expansion in working capital (expected to reverse in FY26), financing activities related to the repayments of bank loans in France and a financial bond for the Belgian contract (£1m in aggregate) and higher interest payments.

Operationally geared growth expected in FY26

The statement says that FY26 has started positively and hence we leave our FY26 revenue and EBITDA estimates unchanged, with continued growth in software and SaaS driving recurring revenue growth and margins. Our adjusted EPS estimate is reduced by 10%, reflecting higher finance costs. It is taking time and investment to break ground with 1Streetworks, but we believe that the pipeline is maturing and that there continues to be potential for this product to materially enhance 1Spatial’s margin profile.

Valuation: Upside potential from model transition

1Spatial trades at a discount to peers on an EV/sales basis, but at a premium on EV/EBITDA and P/E, reflecting a growth-oriented cost base. As we have previously reflected, successful execution on 1Streetworks and US opportunities is not reflected in the valuation, with good deal flow on both accounts being the main catalyst for sustained growth and margin expansion to become priced in.

Estimate changes

Our estimate changes are shown below. FY25 EBITDA has reduced only marginally, with the improved mix towards higher-margin software offsetting the larger-than-expected reduction in service revenue. FY25 net borrowing of £1.1m (vs Edison £1.1m net cash) reflects an expansion in working capital, which is expected to reverse in FY26, financing activities related to the repayment of bank loans in France and a financial bond for the large delayed Belgian contract plus higher interest costs. The higher interest charge results in a £250k (17%) reduction to FY25 adjusted net income, which is also reflected in FY25 adjusted EPS.

Our revenue and EBITDA estimates for FY26 are little changed at this stage. With 62% of FY25 revenues recurring, the year off to a positive start and investments in the sales team and UK management starting to make an impact, we believe that continuing software and SaaS sales momentum should drive faster growth and margin expansion. Service revenue should expand again with commencement of the large Belgian contract, albeit at a modest margin. The 10% reduction in FY26 EPS reflects the higher interest costs, due to the higher borrowing levels.

As previously discussed, it is taking time and investment to penetrate the UK market with 1Streetworks, but we believe the pipeline is maturing and continue to believe in the potential for this product to materially enhance 1Spatial’s margin profile over time. A recent article from Kent County Council (KCC) highlights the growing issue of disruption and its collaboration with 1Spatial to achieve efficiencies through reduced road closures: KCC invited to help Government’s investigation into street works.







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