Trifast — Update 4 October 2016

Trifast — Update 4 October 2016

Trifast

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Trifast

Estimates raised

Pre-close update

Industrial support services

4 October 2016

Price

156p

Market cap

£185m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2016

16.0

Shares in issue

118.8m

Free float

87%

Code

TRI

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

6.9

12.6

43.1

Rel (local)

5.5

5.3

26.8

52-week high/low

156p

105p

Business description

Trifast is a leading global designer, manufacturer and distributor of high-quality industrial fasteners. Principal operations are in the UK, South-East Asia and continental Europe, while there is a modest, but growing, presence in North America.

Next event

Interim results

8 November

Analysts

Nigel Harrison

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Trifast is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

A positive trading statement confirms sound underlying progress, with a boost following the recent weakness of sterling. Forthcoming interim results should make good reading and we are lifting our FY17 estimates, fully justifying the recent forward move in the share price.

Year end

Revenue

(£m)

PBT*

(£m)

EPS*

(p)

DPS

(p)

P/E

(x)

Yield

(%)

03/15

154.7

14.3

8.68

2.10

18.0

1.4

03/16

161.4

16.0

9.99

2.80

15.6

1.8

03/17e

172.0

17.3

10.70

2.95

14.6

1.9

03/18e

178.0

17.9

11.07

3.10

14.1

2.0

Note: * PBT and EPS are normalised and diluted, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Higher profits expected

The Trifast trading statement confirms sound trading with a boost to reflect the impact of the weakness of sterling following the result of the Brexit referendum. We believe that the performance in the UK and continental Europe will have benefited, in particular, from a number of increased schedules and new contracts in the automotive and domestic appliance sectors. In addition, the half-year will include a full contribution from last year’s German acquisition, Kuhlmann, adding at least £0.4m to pre-tax profits. Asian results will be mixed – last year’s challenges in Malaysia will take time to resolve but, elsewhere, trading should be in line with our estimates. Interim results, to be announced on 8 November, should beat our earlier estimates, with H1 revenue up by 8% to around £84m, while we now estimate H1 underlying pre-tax profits rising by at least 9% from last year’s £8.3m to £9.0m. This year’s potential exchange benefit was not fully incorporated in our FY target and we are lifting underlying pre-tax estimate by £0.4m to £17.3m. We do not propose to change our FY18 estimates at this stage.

Momentum to continue

The investment momentum continues. Manufacturing capacity has been broadened and increased in Malaysia, Taiwan and Italy, while the group’s European coverage has recently been extended by acquisitions in Italy and Germany and the planned move into Spain has been established. The strategy has not changed and involves extending the group’s share of business with its 50 major multinational customers and closer working across the regions. We continue to look ahead with confidence. Seasonal factors, plus €1.7m deferred consideration for Kuhlmann, suggest a small net cash outflow over the half-year. We now look for net debt of £14.1m at March 2017 (15% gearing). With estimated facilities of £50m, plus a £20m accordion facility, the group has funds for foreseeable needs and further strategic acquisitions.

Valuation: Good value

Trifast’s shares are up 14% since our report last June, following the FY16 figures. This is in line with leading UK-based global distributors; smaller groups reflect the more challenging market. The prospective CY16 P/E rating of c 14x is well below the c 22x average of the leaders, suggesting the shares offer good value.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'000s

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Year end 31 March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

121,544

129,775

154,741

161,370

172,000

178,000

Cost of Sales

(89,969)

(93,809)

(109,866)

(113,366)

(120,834)

(125,049)

Gross Profit

31,575

35,966

44,875

48,004

51,166

52,951

EBITDA

 

 

9,226

10,798

16,491

18,150

19,800

20,400

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

 

 

7,971

9,696

15,274

16,793

18,200

18,700

Intangibles amortisation/impairments

(331)

(221)

(551)

(974)

(1,100)

(1,100)

Exceptionals

(389)

0

(1,167)

(264)

0

0

Share based payments

(91)

(67)

(741)

(1,687)

(1,200)

(1,200)

Operating Profit

7,160

9,408

12,815

13,868

15,900

16,400

Net Interest

(718)

(534)

(966)

(791)

(900)

(800)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

7,253

9,162

14,308

16,002

17,300

17,900

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

6,442

8,874

11,849

13,077

15,000

15,600

Tax

(1,734)

(2,276)

(3,455)

(2,852)

(4,400)

(4,550)

Profit After Tax (norm)

5,324

6,820

10,312

12,018

12,900

13,350

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

4,708

6,598

8,394

10,225

10,600

11,050

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

107.3

108.5

113.5

116.4

118.8

118.8

EPS - normalised (p) contg businesses

 

 

4.96

6.28

9.08

10.33

10.86

11.24

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

4.73

5.96

8.68

9.99

10.70

11.07

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

4.39

6.08

7.39

8.79

8.92

9.30

Dividend per share (p)

0.8

1.4

2.1

2.8

3.0

3.1

Gross Margin (%)

26.0%

27.7%

29.0%

29.7%

29.7%

29.7%

EBITDA Margin (%)

7.6%

8.3%

10.7%

11.2%

11.5%

11.5%

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

6.6%

7.5%

9.9%

10.4%

10.6%

10.5%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

32,692

30,044

49,057

57,595

57,695

57,395

Intangible Assets

18,366

16,959

32,162

38,259

37,159

36,059

Tangible Assets

13,360

11,828

15,623

17,171

18,371

19,171

Investment in associates

0

0

0

0

0

0

Deferred tax assets

966

1,257

1,272

2,165

2,165

2,165

Current Assets

 

 

68,437

73,774

92,735

100,438

107,894

113,078

Stocks

30,439

30,574

37,418

39,438

44,036

47,572

Debtors

27,248

27,665

39,864

43,386

47,244

49,892

Cash

10,750

15,535

15,453

17,614

16,614

15,614

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(34,578)

(37,903)

(49,052)

(52,813)

(53,364)

(49,638)

Creditors

(21,029)

(24,678)

(34,482)

(33,030)

(35,206)

(36,434)

Other creditors

(2,020)

(2,244)

(2,225)

(2,849)

(3,160)

(3,198)

Short term borrowings

(11,529)

(10,981)

(12,345)

(16,934)

(14,998)

(10,007)

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(6,129)

(4,248)

(21,060)

(21,470)

(20,670)

(19,870)

Long term borrowings

(4,418)

(2,524)

(16,523)

(16,675)

(15,675)

(14,675)

Other long term liabilities

(1,711)

(1,724)

(4,537)

(4,795)

(4,995)

(5,195)

Net Assets

 

 

60,422

61,667

71,680

83,750

91,555

100,965

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

7,872

11,825

6,767

15,873

14,563

16,487

Net Interest

(718)

(534)

(966)

(804)

(900)

(800)

Tax

(1,427)

(1,809)

(4,639)

(3,080)

(4,013)

(4,513)

Capex

(851)

(826)

(1,389)

(2,323)

(2,800)

(2,500)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1,389)

0

(16,240)

(7,684)

(1,450)

0

Financing

233

84

494

181

0

0

Dividends

(534)

(867)

(1,569)

(2,440)

(3,464)

(3,683)

Other

27

(646)

2,097

(2,303)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

3,213

7,227

(15,445)

(2,580)

1,936

4,992

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

8,410

5,197

(2,030)

13,415

15,995

14,059

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

5,197

(2,030)

13,415

15,995

14,059

9,068

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Trifast and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Trifast and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner — Update 4 October 2016

SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner

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