True North Gems — Update 3 December 2015

True North Gems — Update 3 December 2015

True North Gems

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True North Gems

Breaking ground in Greenland

Commencement of mining

Metals & mining

4 December 2015

Price

C$0.16

Market cap

C$49m

US$1.33/C$

Gross cash (C$m) at 30 Sept 2015

3.3

Shares in issue

306.1m

Free float

88%

Code

TGX

Primary exchange

TSX-V

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.3

28.0

    60.0

Rel (local)

17.6

30.6

72.2

52-week high/low

C$0.19

C$0.10

Business description

True North Gems is developing its 85.4%-owned (65% on completion of the mine by its JV partner LNSG) and exploitation (mining) permitted Aappaluttoq ruby and pink sapphire mine in Greenland.

Next event

Sales contracts

Q116

Analysts

Tom Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5725

Charles Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

True North Gems is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Mining has started at the Aappaluttoq ruby and pink sapphire mine on schedule and budget, marking a significant milestone in True North Gems' (TGX) history. With specialised process equipment currently being shipped, the mining underway will form a stockpile of raw gemstone-bearing material for subsequent processing towards the end of Q116. While sales contracts are being finalised we suspend our small FY15 revenue assumption as it has a negligible effect on our base case value, reducing it by only 2.6%. Sales contracts for Aappaluttoq material remain the key near-term catalyst to re-rating True North’s shares.

Year end

Revenue (C$m)

PBT*
(C$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/13

0.0

(1.7)

(0.7)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/14

0.0

(1.4)

(0.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/15e

0.0

(5.2)

(1.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/16e

45.9

32.0

6.7

0.0

2.4

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Base case uses low US$7/ct average stone price

Our valuation of True North Gems relies heavily on third-party pricing data for its rubies and pink sapphire, as detailed in the revised 2015 PFS. The average of all the rough and polished ruby and pink sapphire prices used is US$7/Ct. This price remains conservative in view of prices used to generate Gemfields’ reserve estimate for its Montepuez ruby deposit (see our October ’15 update note ‘funded through to production’ and April ’15 outlook note ‘Greenland’s ruby and pink sapphire mine’, for further information).

Valuation: Removing FY15 revenue has little effect

We have adjusted our financial model slightly for True North’s Q315 results and the removal of our C$5m FY15 sales revenue assumption. The latter is due to no sale of Aappaluttoq material expected by end 2015. We stress that this small amount of revenue only reduces our previous C$0.38/share discounted dividend flow valuation by 2.6% or C$0.01, demonstrating the longer-term value inherent in Aappaluttoq’s mine plan. True North’s Q315 results indicate expenditures of a company transitioning from the exploration stage into production with a l-f-l widening of its net loss from a very low C$0.7m to C$3.2m. We originally booked the entire C$20m in development capex for Aappaluttoq to FY15. However, with third-quarter accounts recording only C$3.2m, we pro-rata this amount to year end and book the balance of C$15.8m to FY16. On this basis and also on the assumptions governing our base case valuation (given in our April 2015 initiation note), our valuation of True North’s shares becomes C$0.37 using a 10% discount to reflect general equity risk. We revise our previous end-FY15 net debt position of C$11.4m to a net cash position of C$0.7m, reflecting the rescheduling of capex to FY16.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

C$000s

2013

2014

2015e

2016e

Year-end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

0

0

0

45,854

Cost of Sales

0

0

(1,749)

(7,825)

Gross Profit

0

0

(1,749)

38,029

EBITDA

 

 

(1,593)

(1,222)

(5,239)

34,550

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(1,593)

(1,222)

(5,239)

32,034

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(1,593)

(1,222)

(5,239)

32,034

Net Interest

(57)

(149)

10

15

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(1,650)

(1,371)

(5,229)

32,048

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(1,650)

(1,371)

(5,229)

32,048

Tax

0

0

0

(841)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(1,650)

(1,371)

(5,229)

31,207

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(1,650)

(1,371)

(5,229)

31,207

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

233.7

295.8

306.1

306.1

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(0.7)

(0.5)

(1.1)

6.7

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

(0.7)

(0.5)

(1.1)

6.7

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

(0.7)

(0.5)

(1.1)

6.7

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

82.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

75.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

69.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

24,467

27,988

55,637

66,460

Intangible Assets

0

0

0

0

Tangible Assets

24,467

27,988

55,637

66,460

Investments

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

729

2,343

8,357

25,043

Stocks

0

0

671

643

Debtors

18

35

0

3,769

Cash

271

1,989

7,367

20,312

Other

440

319

319

319

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,390)

(1,346)

(939)

(1,520)

Creditors

(1,390)

(715)

(307)

(889)

Short term borrowings

0

(631)

(631)

(631)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,113)

(1,160)

(6,278)

(4,980)

Long term borrowings

(894)

(877)

(5,995)

(4,697)

Other long term liabilities

(219)

(283)

(283)

(283)

Net Assets

 

 

22,694

27,825

56,777

85,002

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(1,423)

(1,800)

(5,806)

31,390

Net Interest

(57)

(149)

10

15

Tax

0

0

0

(841)

Capex

(2,091)

(2,913)

(4,270)

(16,321)

Acquisitions/disposals

50

0

0

0

Financing

3,786

5,945

10,326

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

265

1,083

260

14,243

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

9

623

(481)

(741)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(879)

21

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

623

(481)

(741)

(14,984)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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