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TXT e-solutions — Update 11 November 2016

TXT e-solutions (Euronext STAR Milan: TXT)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

9.88

▲ −0.06 (−0.60%)

Market capitalisation

129m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

TXT e-solutions — Update 11 November 2016

TXT e-solutions

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

TXT e-solutions

Steady growth in Q3

Q3 results

Software & comp services

11 November 2016

Price

€7.66

Market cap

€90m

$1.09:€1

Net cash (€m) at end Q316

2.7

Shares in issue

11.7m

Free float

45.5%

Code

TXT

Primary exchange

Borsa Italiana (STAR)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

5.8

3.2

(9.2)

Rel (local)

5.0

3.4

19.2

52-week high/low

€8.30

€6.96

Business description

TXT e-solutions has two divisions: TXT Retail, which provides software solutions for supply chain management in the international retail and consumer-driven industrial sectors; and TXT Next, which provides IT, consulting and R&D services to Italian aerospace, high-tech manufacturing, banking and finance customers

Next events

FY16 trading update

January 2017

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

TXT e-solutions is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

TXT reported a strong set of results for Q316: organic growth in both businesses was boosted by the contribution from April’s acquisition of Pace, resulting in 49% growth in EBITDA y-o-y. We have revised our forecasts to reflect a lower cost base in FY16 and slightly higher tax rates in both years; we raise FY16 EPS by 6.4% and trim FY17 EPS by 2.4%. The company is making good progress in its efforts to internationalise the business and we believe it may make further bolt-on acquisitions.

Year
end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

54.4

4.0

0.28

0.23

27.7

3.0

12/15

61.5

5.7

0.40

0.25

19.0

3.3

12/16e

69.3

7.7

0.50

0.26

15.2

3.4

12/17e

74.7

7.6

0.50

0.27

15.4

3.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Growth for both businesses in Q3

TXT reported Q316 y-o-y revenue growth of 18.5% (7.2% organic); TXT Retail grew 5.1% and TXT Next grew 37.9% (10.3% organic growth plus a €1.6m contribution from Pace). Lower than expected operating expenses resulted in EBITDA of €2.4m (margin 14.3% vs 11.4% in Q315 and 11.7% in Q216). The company ended Q316 with a net cash position of €2.7m. International revenues made up 62% of the total, helped by the inclusion of Pace and customer wins by the original TXT Next business across Europe.

Outlook and changes to forecasts

Management expects a positive business development in Q416, although it highlighted the difficulty in forecasting the timing of contract wins for TXT Retail in particular. We have revised our FY16 forecasts to reflect Q3 performance – this results in a 1.3% reduction in revenues but a 6.4% boost to normalised EPS. In FY17, a slightly higher tax rate results in a 2.4% cut to EPS.

Valuation: International expansion to drive upside

On our revised earnings forecasts, TXT trades at an EV/Sales and P/E premium to European IT services companies, but at a discount to specialist supply chain planning (SCP) software suppliers. Based on the growth and profitability profiles of both groups, we would expect TXT to trade somewhere in the middle of the two groups. With the addition of Pace, the mix of revenues is shifting in favour of higher-margin licence sales, which should drive up valuation multiples over time. We also note a forecast dividend yield of more than 3%. Triggers for share price appreciation include large licence wins in TXT Retail, evidence of growing North American and Asia Pacific market share and further international wins in TXT Next.

Review of Q316 results

Exhibit 1: Quarterly results highlights

Q316a

Q315a

Change

Revenues

16.9

14.3

18.5%

TXT Retail

8.9

8.4

5.1%

TXT Next

8.0

5.8

37.9%

Gross margin

54.2%

52.5%

1.7%

EBITDA

2.4

1.6

49.0%

EBITDA margin

14.3%

11.4%

2.9%

Normalised EBIT

2.2

1.4

61.4%

Normalised EBIT margin

13.3%

9.7%

3.5%

Reported EBIT

2.1

1.3

58.1%

Reported EBIT margin

12.3%

9.3%

3.1%

Net cash

2.7

9.4

-71.7%

Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research

For Q316, TXT reported y-o-y revenue growth of 18.5%, with 5.1% growth from TXT Retail and 37.9% growth from TXT Next. Stripping out the €1.6m revenue contribution from the Pace acquisition, underlying TXT Next revenues grew 10.3% y-o-y (vs 9.5% organic growth in Q216 and 7.4% in Q116). As Pace contributes software revenues to TXT Next, which was previously mainly a services business, the group gross margin increased by 1.7 percentage points y-o-y. Operating expenses in Q3 were €1.3m lower than in Q2 (excluding acquisition-related costs incurred in Q2). This resulted from a combination of currency effects (UK-related costs became slightly cheaper) and a slower ramp in headcount in TXT Retail. This resulted in a 49% increase in EBITDA and a 2.9 percentage point increase in EBITDA margin y-o-y.

The company reported a tax rate of 26% for Q316 and 24% for 9M16. Net cash at the end of Q316 stood at €2.7m compared to €0.5m at the end of H116.

Business update

TXT Retail – raising the profile

In Q3, TXT Retail signed new contracts with customers including GiFi (French multi-channel retailer with 400 home and family stores), WE Fashion (Dutch fashion retailer with 240 shops across the Netherlands, Germany and France), Brunello Cucinelli (Italian cashmere clothing and accessory retailer selling across all continents), Christian Dior (France), and Cotton-on (Australian fashion retailer with 1,200 stores across Australia, Asia, South Africa and the US).

In September Gartner released an update of the Gartner Magic Quadrant for Merchandise Assortment Management Applications. Last year TXT was placed in the Leader category (high ability to execute, high completeness of vision). In Gartner’s own words, TXT moved significantly up the ‘Ability to Execute’ category over the last year. We believe this should help raise the company’s profile, particularly in the US, and should increase the likelihood of the company being asked to quote.

TXT Next – strong growth

The Pace integration is on track and Pace continues to win new business. It recently signed a contract with Icelandair to equip its entire fleet with Pace’s Flight Profile Optimizer fuel efficiency software. The original TXT Next business also continues to generate strong growth, with customer wins in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland.

Outlook and changes to estimates

Management anticipates a positive business development in Q416 for both divisions, but highlighted that forecasting for TXT Retail in particular is difficult.

For FY16, we have revised our forecasts to reflect the revenues achieved in Q3 and reduced our TXT Retail Q4 estimate, while slightly increasing our TXT Next estimate. We have also reflected the lower level of operating costs.

For FY17, our revenue forecasts are substantially unchanged, hence our EBITDA forecast is unchanged.

In both years, we have increased our tax rate assumption from 20% to 22%. For the nine months to September 2016, TXT reported a 24% tax rate. The effective rate will depend on the geographies in which profits are generated, as well as the availability of tax losses in certain regions.

Overall, our FY16 normalised EPS forecast increases by 6.4%, as the reduction in operating costs more than offsets the higher tax rate. In FY17, with EBITDA unchanged, the tax rate increase reduces our normalised EPS forecast by 2.4%.

Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts

FY16e old

FY16e new

change

y-o-y

FY17e old

FY17e new

change

y-o-y

Revenues (€m)

70.2

69.3

-1.3%

12.7%

74.5

74.7

0.2%

7.7%

TXT Retail

37.5

36.3

-3.0%

-0.9%

39.0

39.0

0.0%

7.3%

TXT Next

32.8

33.0

0.7%

32.7%

35.5

35.7

0.5%

8.1%

Gross margin

53.1%

53.3%

0.2%

53.6%

53.3%

-0.2%

Gross profit

37.3

37.0

-1.0%

14.3%

39.9

39.8

-0.2%

7.8%

EBITDA (€m)

7.9

8.5

7.1%

27.0%

8.5

8.5

0.0%

0.6%

EBITDA margin

11.2%

12.2%

1.0%

11.4%

11.4%

0.0%

Normalised EBIT (€m)

7.1

7.8

8.8%

33.6%

7.7

7.7

0.0%

-0.9%

Normalised EBIT margin

10.2%

11.2%

1.0%

10.3%

10.3%

0.0%

Normalised net income (€m)

5.5

5.9

6.3%

24.2%

6.0

5.8

-2.6%

-1.2%

Normalised EPS (€)

0.47

0.50

6.4%

24.9%

0.51

0.50

-2.4%

-1.2%

Reported basic EPS (€)

0.39

0.45

15.2%

34.3%

0.43

0.42

-2.4%

-5.7%

Net cash (€m)

2.3

2.7

18.2%

-67.7%

4.2

4.0

-3.7%

50.5%

Dividend (€)

0.26

0.26

0.0%

4.0%

0.27

0.27

0.0%

3.8%

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€'000s

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

46,499

52,560

54,410

61,540

69,341

74,673

Cost of sales

(22,351)

(24,854)

(26,455)

(29,189)

(32,380)

(34,837)

Gross profit

24,148

27,706

27,955

32,351

36,962

39,836

EBITDA

 

 

5,322

6,263

5,324

6,659

8,455

8,506

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

4,283

5,241

4,284

5,820

7,775

7,706

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

(285)

(285)

(285)

(549)

(637)

Exceptionals and other income

939

0

1,468

0

(300)

0

Other income

0

0

0

(740)

0

(500)

Operating Profit

5,222

4,956

5,467

4,795

6,926

6,569

Net Interest

(37)

(435)

(249)

(151)

(100)

(100)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

4,246

4,806

4,035

5,669

7,675

7,606

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

5,185

4,521

5,218

4,644

6,826

6,469

Tax

(188)

121

(1,046)

(762)

(1,502)

(1,423)

Profit After Tax (norm)

4,092

4,927

3,226

4,739

5,986

5,933

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

4,997

4,642

4,172

3,882

5,324

5,046

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

11.0

11.5

11.5

11.7

11.7

11.7

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

37

43

28

41

50

50

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

34

41

28

40

50

50

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

45

40

36

33

45

42

Dividend per share (c)

18.2

22.7

22.7

25.0

26.0

27.0

Gross margin (%)

51.9

52.7

51.4

52.6

53.3

53.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.4

11.9

9.8

10.8

12.2

11.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

9.2

10.0

7.9

9.5

11.2

10.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

18,570

17,850

18,019

18,132

23,473

22,856

Intangible Assets

16,621

15,370

15,078

14,692

19,913

19,246

Tangible Assets

1,154

1,118

1,249

1,361

1,481

1,531

Other

795

1,362

1,692

2,079

2,079

2,079

Current Assets

 

 

36,769

34,914

34,892

38,946

38,741

42,381

Stocks

1,388

1,451

1,820

2,075

2,175

2,275

Debtors

19,562

18,642

20,768

27,791

28,496

30,688

Cash

15,819

14,821

12,304

9,080

8,070

9,418

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(20,651)

(17,864)

(17,451)

(18,349)

(21,778)

(22,294)

Creditors

(15,155)

(14,512)

(15,297)

(17,528)

(17,778)

(18,294)

Short term borrowings

(5,496)

(3,352)

(2,154)

(821)

(4,000)

(4,000)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(8,666)

(6,965)

(6,491)

(5,105)

(6,505)

(6,505)

Long term borrowings

(4,301)

(2,896)

(1,685)

0

(1,400)

(1,400)

Other long term liabilities

(4,365)

(4,069)

(4,806)

(5,105)

(5,105)

(5,105)

Net Assets

 

 

26,022

27,935

28,969

33,624

33,932

36,438

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

2,760

7,630

5,404

2,412

7,299

7,331

Net Interest

(37)

(435)

(249)

(151)

(100)

(100)

Tax

64

(1,615)

(1,344)

(1,461)

(1,502)

(1,423)

Capex

(405)

(483)

(615)

(763)

(770)

(820)

Acquisitions/disposals

(8,450)

19

0

0

(5,430)

(600)

Financing

1,690

(755)

(597)

2,215

(530)

0

Dividends

0

(2,107)

(2,615)

(2,678)

(2,931)

(3,040)

Net Cash Flow

(4,378)

2,254

(16)

(426)

(3,964)

1,348

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,266)

(6,023)

(8,575)

(8,465)

(8,259)

(2,670)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

135

298

(94)

220

(1,625)

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(6,023)

(8,575)

(8,465)

(8,259)

(2,670)

(4,018)

Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by TXT e-solutions and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by TXT e-solutions and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). 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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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