GB Group — Upgrading on strong H122 performance

GB Group (AIM: GBG)

Last close As at 21/12/2024

324.60

9.80 (3.11%)

Market capitalisation

GBP813m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

GB Group — Upgrading on strong H122 performance

GB Group (GBG) confirmed that its Identity business continued to benefit from a number of exceptional volume drivers in H122, resulting in 12.4% y-o-y organic constant currency revenue growth and a 25.2% operating margin for the group. With management expectations for H222 unchanged, we upgrade our forecasts to incorporate these windfall revenues and slightly better growth in the Fraud and Location divisions.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

GB Group

Upgrading on strong H122 performance

H122 trading update

Software & comp services

21 October 2021

Price

917.5p

Market cap

£1,807m

Net cash (£m) at end H122

39.5

Shares in issue

197.0m

Free float

98%

Code

GBG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.6)

(13.5)

4.9

Rel (local)

(3.8)

8.4

(15.6)

52-week high/low

954p

798p

Business description

GB Group is a specialist in identity data intelligence. Its products and services enable its customers to better understand and verify their customers and employees and are used across a range of fraud, risk management, compliance and customer on-boarding services. With headquarters in the UK, GB operates across 16 countries, has customers in more than 70 countries and generates more than 64% of revenues internationally.

Next events

H122 results

30 November 2021

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

GB Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

GB Group (GBG) confirmed that its Identity business continued to benefit from a number of exceptional volume drivers in H122, resulting in 12.4% y-o-y organic constant currency revenue growth and a 25.2% operating margin for the group. With management expectations for H222 unchanged, we upgrade our forecasts to incorporate these windfall revenues and slightly better growth in the Fraud and Location divisions.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

Adj. operating profit* (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

Diluted EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

03/20

199.1

47.9

45.7

17.9

0.0

51.3

03/21

217.7

57.9

56.7

21.7

6.4

42.3

03/22e

218.6

51.4

50.8

19.3

3.5

47.5

03/23e

238.1

53.9

53.3

20.1

3.6

45.6

03/24e

261.6

60.3

59.7

21.7

3.7

42.2

Note: *Adjusted operating profit, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

12% organic revenue growth in H122

GBG expects to report H122 revenue of £109m, up 5.3% y-o-y and up 12.4% on an organic constant currency basis after adjusting for the two businesses sold in H221. GBG confirmed that in H122 each of its three business units grew on a reported and organic constant currency basis. The Identity business saw the one-off project supporting the US financial stimulus continue for longer than expected, generating incremental revenue of £3m compared to £11m in H121. In addition, high volumes of cryptocurrency trading in April/May generated £4m in revenue over and above the normal run rate. The Location business continued to see good demand as consumers do more online. After a weak H121, the Fraud business saw a good recovery in demand from renewals, new contracts and the resumption of on-premise deployments. GBG expects to report adjusted operating profit of c £27.5m, equating to a margin of 25.2%, which is ahead of the more usual 22–23% range.

Upgrading estimates on better-than-expected H1

The board confirmed that the outlook for H222 is in line with its expectations. We have revised our forecasts to take account of the one-off boosts to Identity revenue in H1 and our expectation of slightly higher growth rates in Fraud and Location. We expect the operating margin to normalise from H222, through a combination of previously flagged new hires and the lack of one-off revenues in H222. We lift our normalised EPS forecasts by 9.3% in FY22, 2.3% in FY23 and 1.2% in FY24.

Valuation: Premium rating reflects growth potential

GBG trades at a premium to the UK software and IT services sectors and its global ID management peer group on a P/E basis, reflecting its strong growth outlook, high recurring revenues and strong balance sheet. Our reverse DCF analysis estimates that the share price is factoring in operating margins of 23.5% and revenue growth of c 11% pa from FY25, slightly ahead of our FY23/24 forecasts. Outside of faster than expected COVID-19 recovery, triggers for upside could include successful cross-selling, adoption of combined solutions and accretive acquisitions.

Changes to forecasts

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY22e

FY23e

FY24e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Revenues

209.6

218.6

4.3%

0.4%

233.0

238.1

2.2%

8.9%

259.1

261.6

1.0%

9.9%

Gross profit

151

157

4.3%

3.2%

167.8

171.4

2.2%

8.9%

186.5

188.3

1.0%

9.9%

Gross margin

72.0%

72.0%

0.0%

1.9%

72.0%

72.0%

0.0%

0.0%

72.0%

72.0%

0.0%

0.0%

EBITDA

50.8

55.1

8.5%

(10.3%)

56.6

57.8

2.1%

4.8%

63.6

64.3

1.1%

11.3%

EBITDA margin

24.2%

25.2%

1.0%

(3.0%)

24.3%

24.3%

(0.0%)

(0.9%)

24.5%

24.6%

0.0%

0.3%

EBITA

47.1

51.4

9.2%

(11.2%)

52.7

53.9

2.3%

4.8%

59.5

60.3

1.2%

11.8%

EBITA margin

22.5%

23.5%

1.1%

(3.1%)

22.6%

22.6%

0.0%

(0.9%)

23.0%

23.0%

0.1%

0.4%

PBT

46.5

50.8

9.3%

(10.3%)

52.1

53.3

2.3%

4.9%

58.9

59.7

1.2%

11.9%

EPS - normalised, diluted (p)

17.7

19.3

9.3%

(11.0%)

19.6

20.1

2.3%

4.1%

21.5

21.7

1.2%

8.2%

EPS - reported (p)

8.9

10.6

19.4%

(23.0%)

10.8

11.3

4.4%

6.4%

13.2

13.4

2.2%

19.2%

DPS (p)

3.5

3.5

0.0%

(45.3%)

3.6

3.6

0.0%

2.9%

3.7

3.7

0.0%

2.8%

Net debt/(cash)

(51.7)

(52.1)

0.8%

146.6%

(85.8)

(87.5)

2.0%

67.9%

(123.8)

(125.3)

1.2%

43.2%

Divisional forecasts

Revenue

Identity

114.8

116.5

1.5%

-9.0%

127.6

128.2

0.4%

10.0%

141.9

141.4

(0.4%)

10.3%

Location

66.2

72.2

9.0%

21.0%

74.2

78.0

5.1%

8.0%

83.1

85.8

3.2%

10.0%

Fraud

28.6

29.9

4.6%

12.9%

31.2

31.9

2.4%

6.8%

34.1

34.5

1.2%

8.0%

Group

209.6

218.6

4.3%

0.4%

233.0

238.1

2.2%

8.9%

259.1

261.6

1.0%

9.9%

Adjusted operating profit

Identity

35.0

37.3

6.5%

-21.9%

38.9

38.8

(0.3%)

4.2%

43.3

43.1

(0.4%)

11.0%

Location

19.9

21.7

9.0%

11.2%

22.3

23.4

5.1%

8.0%

24.9

25.7

3.2%

10.0%

Fraud

6.0

6.3

4.6%

17.8%

7.0

7.2

2.4%

14.4%

7.8

7.9

1.2%

10.4%

Group

47.1

51.4

9.2%

-11.2%

52.7

53.9

2.3%

4.8%

59.5

60.3

1.2%

11.8%

Adjusted operating margin

Identity

30.5%

32.0%

30.5%

30.3%

30.5%

30.5%

Location

30.0%

30.0%

30.0%

30.0%

30.0%

30.0%

Fraud

21.0%

21.0%

22.5%

22.5%

23.0%

23.0%

Group

22.5%

23.5%

22.6%

22.6%

23.0%

23.0%

Source: GB Group, Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

2024e

March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

87,468

119,702

143,504

199,101

217,659

218,618

238,067

261,592

Cost of Sales

(20,302)

(27,092)

(36,060)

(54,914)

(65,096)

(61,213)

(66,659)

(73,246)

Gross Profit

67,166

92,610

107,444

144,187

152,563

157,405

171,408

188,346

EBITDA

 

 

18,734

28,741

34,080

51,739

61,410

55,109

57,767

64,308

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

17,006

26,311

32,031

47,945

57,896

51,425

53,910

60,272

Acquired intangible amortisation

(4,022)

(7,885)

(10,316)

(19,008)

(17,671)

(18,500)

(18,500)

(18,500)

Exceptionals

(1,410)

(2,143)

(4,003)

(1,552)

448

0

0

0

Share of associate

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Share based payments

(994)

(2,375)

(2,287)

(4,541)

(5,170)

(5,687)

(6,256)

(6,881)

Operating Profit

10,580

13,908

15,425

22,844

35,503

27,238

29,155

34,890

Net Interest

(498)

(508)

(689)

(2,218)

(1,240)

(600)

(600)

(600)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

16,508

25,803

31,342

45,727

56,656

50,825

53,310

59,672

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

10,082

13,400

14,736

20,626

34,263

26,638

28,555

34,290

Tax

668

(2,746)

(2,583)

(3,562)

(7,385)

(5,741)

(6,155)

(7,391)

Profit After Tax (norm)

13,206

20,642

24,760

35,210

43,059

38,627

40,516

44,157

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

10,750

10,654

12,153

17,064

26,878

20,896

22,400

26,900

Ave. Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

131.6

150.6

158.1

193.6

195.2

197.1

198.6

200.1

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

10.0

13.7

15.7

18.2

22.1

19.6

20.4

22.1

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

9.9

13.5

15.4

17.9

21.7

19.3

20.1

21.7

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

8.2

7.1

7.7

8.8

13.8

10.6

11.3

13.4

Dividend per share (p)

2.4

2.7

3.0

0.0

6.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

Gross Margin (%)

76.8

77.4

74.9

72.4

70.1

72.0

72.0

72.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

21.4

24.0

23.7

26.0

28.2

25.2

24.3

24.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

19.4

22.0

22.3

24.1

26.6

23.5

22.6

23.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

105,653

170,284

438,683

430,219

394,564

377,731

360,877

343,993

Intangible Assets

98,753

161,372

425,646

414,505

377,663

359,113

340,613

322,163

Tangible Assets

2,856

4,700

4,815

9,420

6,937

8,654

10,300

11,866

Other fixed assets

4,044

4,212

8,222

6,294

9,964

9,964

9,964

9,964

Current Assets

 

 

48,914

61,121

76,522

95,984

85,653

119,233

160,079

204,447

Debtors

30,569

37,969

54,992

66,554

58,617

61,213

66,659

73,246

Cash

17,618

22,753

21,189

27,499

21,135

52,119

87,519

125,300

Other

727

399

341

1,931

5,901

5,901

5,901

5,901

Current Liabilities

 

 

(44,444)

(56,942)

(77,030)

(86,459)

(90,000)

(93,295)

(102,194)

(111,195)

Creditors

(36,436)

(56,100)

(70,302)

(80,280)

(86,338)

(89,633)

(98,532)

(107,533)

Contingent consideration

(7,122)

(45)

(5,287)

(6,179)

(3,662)

(3,662)

(3,662)

(3,662)

Short term borrowings

(886)

(797)

(1,441)

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(15,940)

(16,711)

(116,707)

(94,810)

(25,961)

(19,505)

(12,865)

(4,741)

Long term borrowings

(11,499)

(8,451)

(85,447)

(62,139)

0

0

0

0

Contingent consideration

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long-term liabilities

(4,441)

(8,260)

(31,260)

(32,671)

(25,961)

(19,505)

(12,865)

(4,741)

Net Assets

 

 

94,183

157,752

321,468

344,934

364,256

384,165

405,897

432,503

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

16,305

31,620

27,779

48,498

72,631

55,808

61,220

66,722

Net Interest

(498)

(545)

(689)

(1,768)

(1,211)

(600)

(600)

(600)

Tax

(2,193)

(3,247)

(2,930)

(6,386)

(14,205)

(12,198)

(12,794)

(15,515)

Capex

(2,227)

(2,018)

(1,625)

(1,339)

(738)

(3,100)

(3,250)

(3,400)

Acquisitions/disposals

(36,840)

(70,363)

(255,101)

(81)

2,545

0

0

0

Financing

24,755

56,668

157,339

(1,553)

3,476

(2,252)

(2,252)

(2,252)

Dividends

(2,775)

(3,582)

(4,049)

(5,761)

(5,883)

(6,674)

(6,923)

(7,175)

Net Cash Flow

(3,473)

8,533

(79,276)

31,610

56,615

30,984

35,401

37,781

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,673)

(5,233)

(13,505)

65,699

34,640

(21,135)

(52,119)

(87,519)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

33

(261)

72

(551)

(840)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,233)

(13,505)

65,699

34,640

(21,135)

(52,119)

(87,519)

(125,300)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by GB Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by GB Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This report has been commissioned by GB Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by GB Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Financials

RCM Beteiligungs — Muted transaction activity in H121

RCM Beteiligungs (RCM) recorded group revenues of €1.6m in H121 (versus €10.2m in H120), as the group has not sold any property in the period. In H120 disposals contributed €8.4m to revenue and translated into €3.5m disposal gains. RCM reported rental income of €0.7m in H121 derived from its residential and commercial property portfolio valued at c €18.5m (based on company data as at August 2021). According to management the H221 results will be assisted by €1.9m in revaluation gains on its equity holdings.

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