Utilitywise — Update 29 April 2016

Utilitywise — Update 29 April 2016

Utilitywise

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Utilitywise

On course to meet expectations for FY16

FY16 interim results

Industrial support services

29 April 2016

Price

171.0p

Market cap

£133m

Net debt (£m) at end January 2016

10.2

Shares in issue

77.8m

Free float

80%

Code

UTW

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(5.0)

(1.7)

(22.4)

Rel (local)

(8.0)

(7.6)

(15.0)

52-week high/low

279.5p

125.2p

Business description

Utilitywise is an independent cost management consultancy offering energy procurement and management products to the business market in the UK

Next event

FY16 results

November 2016

Analysts

Graeme Moyse

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Utilitywise is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In H116 Utilitywise (UTW) again posted strong growth and is on target to meet market expectations for FY16. We expect further growth in H2 and beyond and our valuation analysis indicates potential upside in the shares.

Year end

Revenue
(£m)

EBITDA
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

07/14

48.9

14.5

14.6

4.0

11.7

2.3

07/15

69.1

17.8

17.9

5.0

9.6

2.9

07/16e

93.3

20.7

18.9

6.0

9.0

3.5

07/17e

104.9

23.9

23.3

7.0

7.3

4.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Underlying growth

UTW’s H116 results extended its record of growth, with revenue +36% and reported adjusted EBITDA +15% to £9.7m. The DPS was also increased by 29% to 2.2p. A number of the key business metrics also demonstrated positive year-on-year momentum with customer numbers of 29,288 (vs 22,048 at 31 January 2015) and revenue pipeline of £24.7m (vs £23.5m at 31 January 2015). These underlying figures exclude a net positive exceptional credit of £4.1m, reflecting, in large part, the release of deferred consideration that UTW had expected to pay to the vendors of t-mac of £5.7m, less a goodwill impairment charge of £1.3m also relating to
t-mac. Although t-mac (part of the Corporate division) grew revenue by £2.2m in H1 (EBITDA £0.3m), management now expects that the revenue streams and profits required to trigger the payment of the deferred consideration will lie beyond the earnout period.

Outlook for continuing growth in H2 and beyond

The management believes that UTW will post an improved performance in H2 and that it remains on track to deliver revenue and EBITDA margins in line with market expectations. Our EBITDA forecast for FY16 remains broadly unchanged, although it now reflects lower gross margins but lower administrative costs. We have increased our FY16 DPS forecast to 6p (was 5.8p). Despite high attrition rates among energy consultants and some margin pressure (in part from changing business mix), the outlook beyond H2 appears positive. UTW has been able to reduce the proportion of extension business from 42% in FY15, to 23% in H116, has announced the amendment of payment terms with another energy supplier in relation to future contracts and historic accrued revenue, and continues to bolster its management. The company has identified a new CEO to replace Geoff Thompson, who will become executive chairman.

Valuation: Continuing growth points to upside

Peer group multiples indicate a valuation of c 225p for UTW. Longer-term approaches (DCF/transaction multiples) give a higher value of c 299p a share (DCF 330p + transaction 265p). The DCF valuation is sensitive to the assumptions used for terminal growth. An assumption of 2% growth yields a valuation of c 330p, while a terminal growth rate of 0% would reduce the valuation to 256p.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

 

£000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

31st July

 

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

48,947

69,106

93,306

104,921

Cost of Sales

 

(26,586)

(38,810)

(55,984)

(61,903)

Gross Profit

 

22,361

30,296

37,322

43,018

EBITDA

 

14,467

17,785

20,722

23,918

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

13,751

16,920

19,930

23,012

Intangible Amortisation

 

(946)

(1,297)

(1,410)

(1,963)

Exceptionals

 

(22)

(570)

4,055

0

Share Based Payments

 

(737)

(695)

(720)

(756)

Other

 

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

 

12,046

14,357

21,855

20,293

Net Interest

 

(373)

(235)

(685)

(651)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

13,379

16,685

19,245

22,361

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

11,673

14,123

21,170

19,642

Tax

 

(2,170)

(2,927)

(4,446)

(3,928)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

11,208

13,758

14,799

18,432

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

 

9,503

11,196

16,724

15,714

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

72.5

75.3

77.3

78.0

EPS - normalised (p)

 

15.4

18.3

19.1

23.6

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

14.6

17.9

18.9

23.3

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

13.0

14.9

21.6

20.1

Dividend per share (p)

 

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

45.7

43.8

40.0

41.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

29.6

25.7

22.2

22.8

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

28.1

24.5

21.4

21.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

36,975

66,048

68,909

73,233

Intangible Assets

 

21,926

37,171

34,675

32,712

Tangible Assets

 

4,838

5,899

5,773

5,532

Investments & Other

 

10,211

22,978

28,461

34,989

Current Assets

 

30,436

23,075

41,692

47,098

Stocks

 

98

643

927

1,025

Debtors

 

13,958

15,939

27,363

30,289

Cash

 

15,823

6,492

13,401

15,784

Other

 

557

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

(18,315)

(18,420)

(24,549)

(22,549)

Creditors

 

(18,315)

(18,420)

(20,549)

(22,549)

Short term borrowings

 

0

0

(4,000)

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

(15,494)

(24,581)

(26,226)

(26,948)

Long term borrowings

 

(6,000)

(13,175)

(13,175)

(13,175)

Other long term liabilities

 

(9,494)

(11,406)

(13,051)

(13,773)

Net Assets

 

33,602

46,121

59,825

70,834

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

11,615

(2,567)

12,222

16,449

Net Interest

 

(373)

(235)

(685)

(651)

Tax

 

(1,910)

(2,208)

(4,446)

(3,928)

Capex

 

(631)

(1,882)

(894)

(665)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

(835)

(6,398)

0

0

Financing

 

101

149

940

0

Dividends

 

(2,158)

(3,365)

(4,228)

(4,821)

Net Cash Flow

 

5,810

(16,506)

2,909

6,383

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

(4,013)

(9,823)

6,683

3,774

HP finance leases initiated

 

0

0

0

0

Other

 

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

(9,823)

6,683

3,774

(2,609)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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United Kingdom

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

GLI Finance — Update 28 April 2016

GLI Finance

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