Marshalls — Well positioned in sectors with best prospects

Marshalls — Well positioned in sectors with best prospects

FY17 trading was in line with expectations, with good sector performance in the context of wider industry trends. The CPM acquisition should aid another premium growth year in 2018, beyond which the UK economic outlook should be clearer. Rating premia are earned during growth phases, but can also be sustained during less favourable industry conditions via relative outperformance, and this is what we expect to prevail at Marshalls.

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Marshalls

Well positioned in sectors with best prospects

Construction & materials

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11 January 2018

Price

457p

Market cap

£911m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

MSLH

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

199.4m

Business description

Marshalls is the UK's leading manufacturer of superior natural stone and innovative concrete hard landscaping and water management products, supplying the construction, home improvement and landscape markets. It operates its own quarries and manufacturing sites throughout the UK, and has a national network of distribution sites. Commercial/ public sector accounted for 64% of FY16 revenue, Domestic/residential 31% and a small International division based in Belgium the remaining 5%.

Bull

Leading UK brand and market position.

Progressive growth strategy supported by investment with low financial risk.

CPM acquisition benefits to come.

Bear

UK consumer confidence and residential RMI spending subdued.

Patchy industrial and local authority demand.

International operations less well developed.

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

FY17 trading was in line with expectations, with good sector performance in the context of wider industry trends. The CPM acquisition should aid another premium growth year in 2018, beyond which the UK economic outlook should be clearer. Rating premia are earned during growth phases, but can also be sustained during less favourable industry conditions via relative outperformance, and this is what we expect to prevail at Marshalls.

Progress on all fronts

An in-line year-end update – with 6% underlying l-f-l group revenue progress – included implicitly lower underlying y-o-y revenue growth in H2 at group level and in both leading sectors. In an industry context, this should not come as a surprise and, nevertheless, we believe that Marshalls has produced above sector performances in both Domestic (supported by an older consumer demographic) and Public Sector & Commercial (due to subsector mix) operations. The earnings-enhancing acquisition of CPM in October is a strong strategic fit (in client profile and materials), which should bring both earlier build cycle revenues and an enhanced share of project value in infrastructure work.

Earnings growth ahead of underlying markets

CPM contributes to a double-digit earnings growth expectation for 2018. Industry data do point to slower growth in 2018 and 2019, but road/rail infrastructure and housebuilding, where Marshalls is well positioned, are expected to be the leading subsectors. Hence we believe that underlying revenue growth in consensus estimates is probably too low at c 1% and, while there is implicitly some underlying margin expansion also (given that CPM’s were below group level pre-acquisition), guidance for flat group margins is on the conservative side, in our view. Investment across the business has been in evidence for a while now; we anticipate net debt of c £20m at the end of FY17 which leaves plenty of headroom under existing facilities to continue to do so to support growth while also representing low financial risk.

Valuation: Trading through to economic clarity

Marshalls modestly de-rated in the last quarter but the share price rose by almost 60% over 2017 as a whole, driving a premium sector rating. This is warranted in our view but, in a post-peak growth cyclical phase, investor caution is understandable. We believe that Marshalls can grow in flat markets and to a point where the post-Brexit economic outlook is clearer. Polypipe operates in similar markets and trades at a discount to Marshalls; we believe there is scope to hold both.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

386.2

35.3

14.1

9.0*

32.4

2.0*

12/16

396.9

46.0

18.6

11.7*

24.6

2.6*

12/17e

424.0

52.0

21.2

12.0

21.6

2.6

12/18e

480.9

59.3

24.2

12.2

18.9

2.7

12/19e

513.0

64.6

26.1

13.2

17.5

2.9

Source: Bloomberg. Note: *Including supplementary DPS 2016 3.0p (2015: 2.0p) payable with 5.8p final.

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.
This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2018]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Game Digital — Good seasonal trading

Game Digital (GMD) has posted good sales growth over its first 23 weeks and even better results over the Christmas peak. While sales have been led by hardware, management is confident of covering any mix issue through cost savings, and we retain our forecast. With net cash at 35p, the market is valuing this business at 3.5x FY18e EBITDA, which looks misplaced.

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