Reasons to be cheerful: Part one
Reasons to be cheerful: Part one HIGHER INTEREST RATES Nobody, other than savers, loves high interest rates. They might prop up an ailing currency but
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Reasons to be cheerful: Part one HIGHER INTEREST RATES Nobody, other than savers, loves high interest rates. They might prop up an ailing currency but
Leadership in the global fight against antimicrobial resistance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZpsSZaSljs Costing the United States an estimated $20bn every year, the fight against so-called ‘superbugs’ has the
Volition signs global supply agreement for Nu.Q® Vet Cancer Test VolitionRx (NYSE AMERICAN: VNRX) is a multinational epigenetics company that applies its Nucleosomics™ platform through
Cannabinoid biosynthesis, which uses simple living organisms to produce desired compounds at scale, is at a potential tipping point. Canadian investment bank ATB Capital believes this technology will ‘substantially improve the economics for the production of rare cannabinoids’, which it adds ‘will open the gates for pharmaceutical and consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies to use them as key inputs for products in the health, wellness, and recreational segments’. Solving the key challenge of producing high-quality product on a regular sustainable basis at scale looks to be near. Cronos, which has partnered with Ginkgo Bioworks, has successfully fermented cannabigerol (CBG) at research scale and is expected to commercialise products in September 2021.
The global market for CPG and pharma cannabinoid biosynthesis products is predicted to reach C$10bn in 2025 and C$115bn by 2040 according to Raymond James. Based on these numbers Edison estimates a c $30bn NPV for the cannabinoid biosynthesis market. The companies most likely to profit are those able to bring high-quality, high-demand cannabinoid products to market at a lower production cost. In this report we highlight Cronos Group and its partner Ginkgo Bioworks, Creo and its partner Genomatica, and Demetrix.
Company Name | ticker | Company Market Cap ($m) | Price ($) |
---|
Constellation Brands Inc | STZ | 42,994 | 225 |
Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC | JAZZ.O | 10,605 | 173.9 |
Canopy Growth Corp | WEED.TO | 7,704 | 20 |
Amyris Inc | AMRS.O | 4,599 | 16 |
Zymergen Inc | ZY.OQ | 3,470 | 34.55 | Cronos Group Inc | CRON.TO | 2,650 | 7 |
Evolva Holding SA | EVE.S | 183 | 0 |
Willow Biosciences Inc | WLLW.TO | 87 | 0.7 |
InMed Pharmaceuticals | INM.O | 20 | 2.5 |
CB Therapeutics | - | - | - |
Demetrix | - | - | - |
Genomatica | - | - | - |
Ginko Bioworks | - | - | - |
Hyasynth Biologicals | - | - | - |
Creo | - | - | - |
LAVVANLibede | - | - | |
Lygos | - | - | - |
Purisys | - | - | - |
Renew Biopharma | - | - | - |
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Legalisation opening the door to new markets
Medical cannabis is legal in most US states (see Exhibit 1). However, this should not be confused with the very few cannabis-derived or synthetic cannabis-related FDA-approved drugs that require a prescription from a licensed healthcare provider. About 20 of these states have also legalised recreational cannabis. BDSA reported that in 2020, legal sales in the US reached $17.5bn, a 46% increase over the prior year, noting the market remained resilient despite the pandemic.
Sales in mature medical and adult-use markets continued to grow. The top four states (California, Florida, Colorado and Oklahoma) in this area each saw sales growth of over $400m in 2020. Markets that opened in 2019 and 2020 had $1.6bn in sales in 2020. BDSA forecasts US sales to reach $41.3bn in 2026, a CAGR of 15%. Driving this growth is the opening of new markets for medical and adult use, with four new medical and five new adult-use markets to commence sales in 2021.
The other North American market to focus on is Canada. In October 2018, Canada legalised recreational marijuana. In 2020, legal cannabis sales totalled an estimated $2.6bn and BDSA forecasts the market to grow to nearly $6.4bn in 2026.
As of |
Places | |
---|---|---|
Medical use | 18 May 2021 | 36 states and four territories allow the medical use of cannabis products |
Adult use (recreational) | 22 June 2021 | Adult use (recreational) 22 June 2021 18 states, two territories and the District of Columbia have enacted legislation to regulate cannabis for adult use |
Traditional cannabis production: Grass is not always greener
‘We are very excited to support Octarine on its journey towards growth and scaling of its technology. Octarine is working in one of the promising areas of biotechnology, synthetic biology. The company’s unique fermentation platform enables production of active compounds from plants in a very sustainable manner. This is an important aspect for Vækstfonden, as we are continuously looking for green technologies.’
Biosynthesis: An established production process for pharmaceuticals, vitamins, flavours and fragrances
Another key advantage of cannabinoid biosynthesis is that it avoids use of the cannabis plant and can ensure there is no THC (unlike the plant). This has the key advantage of the product not falling under narcotics regulations. Although there is some progress as a consequence of the 2018 Farm Bill in the US, where cannabis derivatives with extremely low amounts of THC (less than 0.3%) are not considered controlled substances, the presence of THC still raises issues both in the US and globally. For example, California requires a proposition 65 health warning label even if THC is present below the 0.3% level, whereas countries such as France require that unlicensed products contain no THC.
Exhibit 2: Biosynthesis process, an example from InMed Pharmaceutical
Note: InMed Pharmaceuticals is a leading manufacturer of rare cannabinoids using multiple types of manufacturing including biosynthesis
Source: InMed Phamaceuticals
Cannabinoid biosynthesis: Attracting capital and attention
After several years of increasing M&A in the cannabis and cannabinoid space, transactions slumped slightly in 2019 and 2020. Activity dipped from a high of 300+ transactions, valued at more than $7bn in 2018, to 124 valued at $1.9bn in 2020. But things are moving again. Hailed as a big game-changer is the recent US$7.2bn acquisition of British GW Pharmaceuticals by Ireland-based Jazz Pharmaceuticals (GW is the maker of Epidiolex, a community-based drugs initiative prescription medicine for the treatment of rare types of epilepsy). GW has a broad clinical pipeline of cannabinoid products.
Analysts see consolidations continuing with companies likely to seek to acquire businesses in new or larger markets and to find ones with capabilities to scale up. In May 2021, Ginkgo Bioworks entered into a definitive agreement to merge with Soaring Eagle Acquisition Corp. This put Ginkgo at an enterprise value of $15bn. Ginko Bioworks has an agreement with Cronos to produce eight different cannabinoids.
Last year US-based Constellation Brands, one of the largest liquor companies in the world, exercised warrants originally issued in 2017 to acquire shares in Canopy Growth, a large diversified cannabis company. In 2018, Canopy Growth paid more than US$300m in cash and shares to acquire Ebbu, a small Colorado compant that had developed one of the earliest platforms for manipulating the cannabis genome using gene-editing system CRISPR–Cas9 technology.
We have reviewed the competitive landscape and have compiled a list of the principal players in cannabinoid biosynthesis (Exhibit 3).
The most comprehensive overview we have seen in the sector is the October 2020 review by Raymond James, which ranked companies based on two metrics:
Among the major biosynthesis companies, Cronos Group/Ginkgo Bioworks topped Raymond James’s list. Tied for second place were Creo (Genomatica JV), one of the first companies to make cannabinoids through biosynthesis, and Demetrix.
Exhibit 3: Companies at or approaching commercial scale production in cannabinoid biosynthesis
Company | Partner | Cannabinoid | Production Method | Organism |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cronos Group (Canada) | Ginkgo Bioworks (USA) | CBG | Biosynthesis | Yeast |
Creo (USA) | Genomatica (USA) | CBG | Biosynthesis | Bacteria |
Demetrix (USA) | CBG | Biosynthesis | Yeast | |
Lygos (USA) | Librede (USA) | CBG, CBC, CBN, CBD | Hybrid | Yeast |
Willow Biosciences (Canada) | Purisys (USA) | CBG | Biosynthesis + Chemical synthesis | Yeast |
Lavvan (USA) | Amyris (USA) | CBG | Biosynthesis | Yeast |
*InMed (Canada) | Various | Enzymatic biotransformation ,Biosynthesis | Enzymes, Bacteria | |
Cellibre (USA) | CBG | Biosynthesis | Non-traditional | |
Renew Biopharma (USA) | Novel PPARy targeting | Biosynthesis | Yeast and microalgae | |
Hyasynth Biologicals (Canada) | Investment from Organigram Holdings (Canada | THC, CBD, CBG, CBDA | Biosynthesis | Yeast |
CB Therapeutics (USA) | CBG,CBC,CBT | Biosynthesis | Yeast | |
*BayMedica (USA) | CBC | Chemical synthesis + Biosynthesis | Yeast |
*InMed Pharmaceuticals has signed a LOI to acquire BayMedica
< Source: London Stock Exchange
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