Macro Outlook: North American supply gathers pace

The oil price outlook over the balance of 2012 and into 2013 is decidedly bearish in the absence of supply shocks. The market is in significant surplus, inventories are plentiful and demand is subdued and furthermore likely to continue so. Growing North American supplies are a key factor in the bearish equation not only domestically but also internationally given the potential for greatly reduced US imports. Shale oil development is indeed a game changer.

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