Macro Outlook: Supply concerns wane

Oil supply concerns have waned significantly since early 2012, as political tension over Iran has eased and evidence has surfaced of rising OECD inventories. Meanwhile, demand globally is subdued. As the IEA has recently alluded, the oil market is probably moving into surplus. Prices could soften noticeably in the coming months in the absence of an upsurge in tension between the West and Iran over the latter’s nuclear programme.

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