Seismic reflections: Unstoppable force?

The objections to investing in Kurdistan have centred on the political tensions between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central Baghdad government. Baghdad has continually sought to assert that deals done in Kurdistan are against the constitution and hence illegal, and has blacklisted companies signing PSCs in Kurdistan. However, of the top 10 oil and gas companies by market cap globally, four are now in Kurdistan, while another (Statoil) has publicly said it is looking at opportunities. It will soon be easier to list the large companies not in Kurdistan. If you measure political risk by the positioning of the majors, we are beyond the tipping point. There is a wall of oil coming and politics will have to bend to economics in the long term.

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