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NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ: NB)

Last close As at 02/07/2024

USD1.64

▲ −0.09 (−5.20%)

Market capitalisation

USD62m

NioCorp Developments is developing North America’s only niobium/scandium/titanium critical minerals mine and processing facility at Elk Creek in Nebraska. Its mission is to accelerate the US transition to a lower carbon economy by serving as a reliable domestic supplier of sustainably produced critical minerals.

Assuming the adoption of a Railveyor system and the addition of an aluminium-scandium master alloy line, we calculate a project value for Elk Creek of US$1,358m, or US$36.89/share. Alternatively, assuming two equity raisings over the next 12 months of US$341m in aggregate with a share price re-rating between the two, we calculate a fully diluted valuation for NioCorp shares of US$17.57, rising to a peak of US$34.23/share in FY32.

Latest Insights

Metals & Mining | Update

NioCorp Developments — Opportunities and optimisations

Metals & Mining | Initiation

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking
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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Jim Sims

    Chief Communications Officer

  • Mark Smith

    CEO and executive chairman

  • Neal Shah

    CFO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

12.7

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (32.9) (37.3) (67.0)
Relative (35.0) (40.4) (73.9)
52 week high/low US$5.2/US$1.6

Financials

NioCorp is developing the Elk Creek mine in Nebraska, which hosts the highest-grade undeveloped niobium and the largest ‘indicated’ or better terbium resource in the US (inter alia). A DFS in 2022 calculated a pre-tax IRR of 29.2% and a post-tax NPV (8%) of US$2,350m (US$62.54/share). However, the project appears poised for a material change in product mix to improve its economics as well as an increasingly likely sale of rare earth output to (and strategic investment from) Stellantis. In the meantime, it is also in advanced negotiations for up to US$800m in low interest debt financing from the US’s Export-Import Bank.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 0.0 (7.8) (10.6) (41.3) N/A N/A
2023A 0.0 (37.4) (39.7) (134.3) N/A N/A
2024E 0.0 (16.6) (21.9) (30.8) N/A N/A
2025E 0.0 (10.3) (10.2) (11.2) N/A N/A

Research

Metals & Mining

Update

NioCorp Developments — Opportunities and optimisations

Metals & Mining

Initiation

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking

Update

Metals & Mining

NioCorp Developments — Opportunities and optimisations

Initiation

Metals & Mining

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking

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