NioCorp Developments

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

NioCorp Developments is developing North America’s only niobium/scandium/titanium critical minerals mine and processing facility at Elk Creek in Nebraska. Its mission is to accelerate the US transition to a lower carbon economy by serving as a reliable domestic supplier of sustainably produced critical minerals.

Assuming the adoption of a Railveyor system and the addition of an aluminium-scandium master alloy line, we calculate a project value for Elk Creek of US$1,358m, or US$36.89/share. Also assuming two equity raisings over the next eight months of US$341m in aggregate with a share price re-rating between the two, we calculate a fully diluted, risked valuation for NioCorp shares of US$17.57, rising to a peak of US$34.23/share in FY32.

Latest Insights

Metals & Mining |
Update

17.06.24

NioCorp Developments — Opportunities and optimisations

Metals & Mining |
Initiation

08.01.24

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking

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Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

Jim Sims

Chief Communications Officer
Mark Smith

CEO and executive chairman
Neal Shah

CFO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

N/A

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	(30.3)	(37.7)	(63.1)
Relative	(30.9)	(41.1)	(71.6)
52 week high/low	US$3.6/US$1.4

Financials

NioCorp is developing the Elk Creek mine in Nebraska, which hosts the highest-grade undeveloped niobium and the largest ‘indicated’ or better terbium resource in the US. A DFS in 2022 calculated a pre-tax IRR of 29.2% and a post-tax NPV (8%) of US$2,350m (US$62.54/share). However, the project appears poised for a material change in product mix to improve its economics as well as an increasingly likely sale of rare earth output to (and strategic investment from) Stellantis. In the meantime, it is also in advanced negotiations for up to c US$800m in low interest debt financing from the US’s Export-Import Bank.